Z40520
New member
Hello all! Long time lurker here, finally time for my first post.
I came to TDIClub because of my interest in the JSW TDI as a replacement vehicle for my 2000 Dodge Ram 1500 (5.9L, 11mpg) and this website has been a tremendous resource for me in my search. Thank you all.
Circumstances didn't allow for a purchase in 2013. I wanted a JSW badly, but didn't need it. Now, as 2014 hums along, I'm getting to the point where "needs" are getting real honest (finish my MBA in May, 1st child due in June, start new job in July) and my truck has far surpassed it's useful life. Heck, for a Chrysler product, 15 years on the road and 160K miles isn't all that bad. Can you tell I've been trying to justify this purchase for months and months and months?
Well, I've gotten to the point where I am more than eager to know when the new JSW is going to be offered for sale, and I'm kind of tired of all the speculation (on my part) and uncertainty (all of us). So, I contacted VW USA yesterday, and had two interesting takeaways. I know I'm not the first to do this, but I think I'm the first to share some of these observations and data points.
1. I referred to the model as both the 2015 Jetta Sportwagen and 2015 JSW. The rep replied with something along the lines of "blah blah blah... glad to hear it... rumble rumble...2015 Sportwagen." Did I read that correctly? I typed back, asking if Jetta will be dropped from the name officially for 2015? Her response, "Sorry for the confusion, but I'm unable to confirm that detail at this time." Did she just slip up? Why not just say no if that's the answer? Would a customer service rep even have knowledge of decisions at this level of importance? Probably not, but I think it breaks up the monotony of the waiting game. I think there's just enough there to not ignore, but not enough to be really excited.
2. I asked her when the 2015 Sportwagen would be available. Her response was that the MK7 Golf and Sportwagen will not be available until "June/July at the earliest" and that anything sooner would be "extremely unlikely."
Great, that's not the news I was hoping for, but at least I have a target now. However, in the process of my own research I came up with some interesting conclusions about the MK7 Golf/Sportwagen production and demand statistics. According to a 12/13/13 VW press release (http://media.vw.com/release/561/)[/URL], VW has already sold 500,000 MK7 golfs throughout Europe. That’s roughly 1,350 vehicles per day in required production capacity, assuming demand is flat, although we know it isn't. So we know they have that as baseline capacity to start. Then, I read (not in the same press release, but still on media.vw.com) that the Puebla facility will produce approximately 700 MK7 Golfs per day. We know that the Golf and Sportwagen share MQB architecture at least up to the A-pillar, but I assume that everything further back is at least marginally unique. It’s safe to assume that the Golf and Sportwagen will be produced on the same production line(s), but we don’t know if production will be concurrent, or if there’s some quota of Golfs they want to pump out before starting in on the wagons. Safe to say that, at a minimum, VW has added some incrementally greater production capability for the Golf/Sportwagen platform, which should make us happy, right?
Now for the demand side of this equation. After all, an increase in production capacity is only valuable if they have demand to absorb it. As most people know, they run automotive production lines 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Minus costly down-time for repairs, retooling, routine maintenance, etc. They avoid stopping the line if at all possible, it's very expensive. They're obviously not dumping $750 million into the Puebla plant because they want lower production utilization, right?
According to the same previously mentioned press release, VW delivered 2,260,000 vehicles to it’s largest market, China, where they enjoyed double-digit demand growth (17.5%) in 2013. In a distant second place, not surprisingly, is Europe, who took 1,510,000 vehicles, which is down 4.6% from last year. Demand in the United States was down 5.2% from 2013, to just 373,700 vehicles. So, our appetite for VW on the whole is only slightly less bleak than that of Brazil, where demand dropped a staggering 18.8%. To me, the sad and clear realization out of this data: We’re going to be standing at the end of the line for the MK7, regardless of form. Another staggering realization: if the demand trend continues, even for just the next few months, China will consume more VW passenger vehicles than the rest of the world combined in 2014.
A glimmer of hope (on release date), though, came in the same press release when VW stated that “Our brand's most important model, the Golf, has once again been a strong driver. The latest generation (MK7) has got off to an excellent start and we will be delivering the 500,000th model this December, just one year after the market launch. We expect to see further momentum from key countries such as China and the USA, where the Golf will be launched shortly.” I don’t know about you, but shortly, to me, doesn’t mean seven months. Shortly means shortly!
You'd all be very accurate to call me impatient, but there’s also part of me that’s cautiously optimistic that we might see the MK7 platform sooner than we think. Do Germans under-promise and over-deliver? Let's hope!
Calling on the VW dealership professionals out there: When the actual U.S. Release date is announced, how far in advance of that date, if at all, would we be able to order one at dealerships?
I came to TDIClub because of my interest in the JSW TDI as a replacement vehicle for my 2000 Dodge Ram 1500 (5.9L, 11mpg) and this website has been a tremendous resource for me in my search. Thank you all.
Circumstances didn't allow for a purchase in 2013. I wanted a JSW badly, but didn't need it. Now, as 2014 hums along, I'm getting to the point where "needs" are getting real honest (finish my MBA in May, 1st child due in June, start new job in July) and my truck has far surpassed it's useful life. Heck, for a Chrysler product, 15 years on the road and 160K miles isn't all that bad. Can you tell I've been trying to justify this purchase for months and months and months?
Well, I've gotten to the point where I am more than eager to know when the new JSW is going to be offered for sale, and I'm kind of tired of all the speculation (on my part) and uncertainty (all of us). So, I contacted VW USA yesterday, and had two interesting takeaways. I know I'm not the first to do this, but I think I'm the first to share some of these observations and data points.
1. I referred to the model as both the 2015 Jetta Sportwagen and 2015 JSW. The rep replied with something along the lines of "blah blah blah... glad to hear it... rumble rumble...2015 Sportwagen." Did I read that correctly? I typed back, asking if Jetta will be dropped from the name officially for 2015? Her response, "Sorry for the confusion, but I'm unable to confirm that detail at this time." Did she just slip up? Why not just say no if that's the answer? Would a customer service rep even have knowledge of decisions at this level of importance? Probably not, but I think it breaks up the monotony of the waiting game. I think there's just enough there to not ignore, but not enough to be really excited.
2. I asked her when the 2015 Sportwagen would be available. Her response was that the MK7 Golf and Sportwagen will not be available until "June/July at the earliest" and that anything sooner would be "extremely unlikely."
Great, that's not the news I was hoping for, but at least I have a target now. However, in the process of my own research I came up with some interesting conclusions about the MK7 Golf/Sportwagen production and demand statistics. According to a 12/13/13 VW press release (http://media.vw.com/release/561/)[/URL], VW has already sold 500,000 MK7 golfs throughout Europe. That’s roughly 1,350 vehicles per day in required production capacity, assuming demand is flat, although we know it isn't. So we know they have that as baseline capacity to start. Then, I read (not in the same press release, but still on media.vw.com) that the Puebla facility will produce approximately 700 MK7 Golfs per day. We know that the Golf and Sportwagen share MQB architecture at least up to the A-pillar, but I assume that everything further back is at least marginally unique. It’s safe to assume that the Golf and Sportwagen will be produced on the same production line(s), but we don’t know if production will be concurrent, or if there’s some quota of Golfs they want to pump out before starting in on the wagons. Safe to say that, at a minimum, VW has added some incrementally greater production capability for the Golf/Sportwagen platform, which should make us happy, right?
Now for the demand side of this equation. After all, an increase in production capacity is only valuable if they have demand to absorb it. As most people know, they run automotive production lines 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Minus costly down-time for repairs, retooling, routine maintenance, etc. They avoid stopping the line if at all possible, it's very expensive. They're obviously not dumping $750 million into the Puebla plant because they want lower production utilization, right?
According to the same previously mentioned press release, VW delivered 2,260,000 vehicles to it’s largest market, China, where they enjoyed double-digit demand growth (17.5%) in 2013. In a distant second place, not surprisingly, is Europe, who took 1,510,000 vehicles, which is down 4.6% from last year. Demand in the United States was down 5.2% from 2013, to just 373,700 vehicles. So, our appetite for VW on the whole is only slightly less bleak than that of Brazil, where demand dropped a staggering 18.8%. To me, the sad and clear realization out of this data: We’re going to be standing at the end of the line for the MK7, regardless of form. Another staggering realization: if the demand trend continues, even for just the next few months, China will consume more VW passenger vehicles than the rest of the world combined in 2014.
A glimmer of hope (on release date), though, came in the same press release when VW stated that “Our brand's most important model, the Golf, has once again been a strong driver. The latest generation (MK7) has got off to an excellent start and we will be delivering the 500,000th model this December, just one year after the market launch. We expect to see further momentum from key countries such as China and the USA, where the Golf will be launched shortly.” I don’t know about you, but shortly, to me, doesn’t mean seven months. Shortly means shortly!
You'd all be very accurate to call me impatient, but there’s also part of me that’s cautiously optimistic that we might see the MK7 platform sooner than we think. Do Germans under-promise and over-deliver? Let's hope!
Calling on the VW dealership professionals out there: When the actual U.S. Release date is announced, how far in advance of that date, if at all, would we be able to order one at dealerships?
