Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

Oilerlord said:

VW sells electric cars.
GM sells electric cars.
Ford sells electric cars.
Fiat sells electric cars.
Nissan sells electric cars.
Tesla sells electric cars.
Kia sells electric cars.
Mercedes sells electric cars.
BMW sells electric cars.

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More specifically;

VW sells electric cars to compete with other EVs
GM sells electric cars to compete with other EVs
Ford sells electric cars to compete with other EVs
Fiat sells electric cars to compete with other EVs
Nissan sells electric cars to compete with other EVs

Tesla sells electric cars to compete with ALL cars

Kia sells electric cars to compete with other EVs
Mercedes sells electric cars to compete with other EVs
BMW sells electric cars to compete with other EVs

Until the LAMEs (Legacy Auto Manufacturing Enterprises) lose their fear of cannibalizing their ICE sales Tesla has very little competition. With exception of Tesla other EVs are designed to be uncompetitive outside the EV niche.

VeeDubTDI said:

As for their non-transportation business, their utility-scale energy arm is just getting going. Let's look at some year-over-year increases related to that...

Energy generation and storage: up 1300%
Services and other: up 240%

Of course you can't establish a reliable trend with a couple of data points. We'll see what happens in the coming years. To me, things look very positive for Tesla.

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You can't establish a reliable trend until you understand how that year/year revenue increased. In November 2016, Tesla acquired SolarCity - and their "energy generation" revenue along with the company's $3B debt.

Tesla sells cars. It makes sense that they also bill customers to repair them (like GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, etc). Sell more cars = more service revenue. It's that simple. Nothing unique, or game changing.

Veedub, I've often posted links to Tesla's 10Q investor's releases. Though it may alter your perception of the company, I think it's a measure of reality, and an important reference to what Tesla actually does, what enables them to do it, and the risks that the company faces going forward.

aja8888 said:

If the U.S. were that have a 15 - 20% stock market correction given the Bull has run almost a decade, a lot of momentum stocks would be taken to the well for their last drink. This happened in 2000 when the dot.com's with no earnings were taken out, good ideas or not. Tesla would certainly feel the heat and may be forced to liquidate or sell parts of it's business, or face bankruptcy.

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You make a good point. Companies with negative earnings of $8.66 per share don't fare too well when investors are taking risk off the table.

We are a two, plug-in hybrid family and after a year:

• 2014 BMW i3-REx - a 10 stop, EV, highway mileage 40 MPG and sustainable speed of 70 mph, it is the go to car for shopping around town. But if trips extend beyond the 72 mile range, the engine kicks in to keep on going. The 168 hp, rear drive solves a lot of traffic lane changing or traffic problems.
• 2017 Prius Prime - a 3 stop, EV, highway mileage +56 MPG and sustainable speeds of +70 mph, it is the cross country car of choice yet quite usable around town. The fifth tank went 2,176 miles using 10 gallons.

I don't fault "garage hybrids" that have an EV and engine powered car. Just in our case, we prefer to have cars with both capabilities. If one is out of service, the other fully meets our requirements for affordable transportation.

The Prius Prime is the efficiency leader costing $2.50/100 mi electricity and $4.00/100 mi on gas. The longer EV range BMW i3-REx is $2.90/100 mi and $6.25/100 mi on gas. When I take one car, the J1772 plug goes in the other so we always have a car with full battery charge.

Bob Wilson

bwilson4web said:

2014 BMW i3-REx - a 10 stop, EV, highway mileage 40 MPG and sustainable speed of 70 mph, it is the go to car for shopping around town. But if trips extend beyond the 72 mile range, the engine kicks in to keep on going. The 168 hp, rear drive solves a lot of traffic lane changing or traffic problems.

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I dig the i3 with range extender but the strong regen braking is one thing I didn't care for. While I'm sure I'd get used to and be able to modulate it through the accelerator, I could see it being dangerous in icy conditions for my wife. A software setting to adjust how much 1-pedal regen you want - or the ability to turn it off entirely would be nice. I love how the eGolf just glides when you lift off throttle. I wish more EV's were like that.

Ultimately, the i3 ended up being to small for us but I think it's one of the best used EV values out there.

nwdiver said:

More specifically;

VW sells electric cars to compete with other EVs

Tesla sells electric cars to compete with ALL cars

Until the LAMEs (Legacy Auto Manufacturing Enterprises) lose their fear of cannibalizing their ICE sales Tesla has very little competition. With exception of Tesla other EVs are designed to be uncompetitive outside the EV niche.

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VW seems to be moving head long into EVs as does BMW.

VW just took a $25 billion financial hit and keeps moving forward. Simply pointing out the real strengths of the "legacy" auto companies.

Tesla is struggling to ramp up production capacity on a new model. Not an easy task for Tesla. But the "legacy" auto companies have all done that regularly and very successfully.

john.jackson9213 said:

Tesla is struggling to ramp up production capacity on a new model. Not an easy task for Tesla. But the "legacy" auto companies have all done that regularly and very successfully.

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It's looking more and more like the early model 3 production bottlenecks are getting rectified quickly. One parts supplier to Tesla just announced a major increase in parts orders. When m3 production goes into full swing, the major automakers will really be scrambling to get product to market.

There are also pictures circulating of the parking lot at the factory, and a California delivery center, full of Model 3s. People counting VINs have figured out there are now more Model 3s than original Roadsters.

-J

turbobrick240 said:

It's looking more and more like the early model 3 production bottlenecks are getting rectified quickly. One parts supplier to Tesla just announced a major increase in parts orders. When m3 production goes into full swing, the major automakers will really be scrambling to get product to market.

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Panasonic recently posted an ad for a multi-day interview/hiring conference for Gigafactory 1. It looks like they're staffing up for the big battery production ramp that will accompany the Model 3 production ramp. These are good signs.

Bjorn does some of the best Tesla videos. I watched a hilarious one where he and a couple buddies tested how many cucumbers, carrots, sausages, and other finger analogs they could sever in his model x's auto closing doors. You definitely don't want your hand anywhere near the hinges on the gullwing doors when they auto close.

Clever solution to curtailment....

Ontario loses ~1TWh of clean energy annually due to nuclear and wind curtailment... that's enough energy to drive an EV 3 Billion miles. Or ~200k EVs driving ~15k miles/yr.

Counting hydro curtailments Ontario loses >2TWh per year...

The province will start offering 60% rebates for Electric Trucks of up to $75k.

turbobrick240 said:

Bjorn does some of the best Tesla videos. I watched a hilarious one where he and a couple buddies tested how many cucumbers, carrots, sausages, and other finger analogs they could sever in his model x's auto closing doors. You definitely don't want your hand anywhere near the hinges on the gullwing doors when they auto close.

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My favorite was the three guys testing the rear seat room in the Model X. Hysterical.

turbobrick240 said:

When m3 production goes into full swing, the major automakers will really be scrambling to get product to market.

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Scrambling...in what way? Toyota alone produces over 13,000 cars per day.
From what I can tell, the major automakers don't seem to have a problem getting their products to market:



I don't get the sense Toyota, or any other major automaker is scrambling to move units.

Oilerlord said:

Scrambling...in what way? Toyota alone produces over 13,000 cars per day.
From what I can tell, the major automakers don't seem to have a problem getting their products to market:

I don't get the sense Toyota, or any other major automaker is scrambling to move units.

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They'll be scrambling to get viable BEV's to market. Cars that they can produce in significant numbers, sell at a profit, and consumers will choose over a model 3.

john.jackson9213 said:

VW seems to be moving head long into EVs as does BMW.

VW just took a $25 billion financial hit and keeps moving forward. Simply pointing out the real strengths of the "legacy" auto companies.

Tesla is struggling to ramp up production capacity on a new model. Not an easy task for Tesla. But the "legacy" auto companies have all done that regularly and very successfully.

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Until there's a mainstream EV on a dealer lot with >200 mile range, access to a national fast-charging network and a conventional appearance it's largely just FUD. There's a reason GM decided to make an electric Geo instead of an electric Camero. It's obvious that there are intentional design elements intended to prevent cars like the Bolt from competing effectively in the mainstream market.

The LAMEs still want to sell ICE as long as possible. Promising future EV developments is one way to stir up FUD and maintain the status quo. It's a game of chicken between the LAMEs and progress. You can accept new technology too late to recover. Just ask Blockbuster.

New technology frequently fails to deliver on it's transformational first promises. Sometimes it is a total failure, sometimes just a niche product.

Right now, the Tesla model 3 is unobtainium. But Anita will get a new 2018 Camry for about half the price of any Tesla tomorrow or the next day. And she will be very happy with it, because it will do anything she needs/wants at a price she is willing to pay.

turbobrick240 said:

They'll be scrambling to get viable BEV's to market. Cars that they can produce in significant numbers, sell at a profit, and consumers will choose over a model 3.

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Do you mean like scrambling to lose money on every unit - just to compete with Tesla's "profitable" Model 3, and purposely hemorrhage cash to gain a larger share of a market the size of less than 1% of all vehicles being sold?

Do you also mean selling BEV's in "significant" numbers like the total of 345 Model 3's that Tesla delivered last month?

https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2017-sales-chart-November-vfinal2.png

As I mentioned earlier. If there is a "viable" market for EV's, rest assured, the major automakers will take it seriously.

Oilerlord said:

Do you also mean selling BEV's in "significant" numbers like the total of 345 Model 3's that Tesla delivered last month?



As I mentioned earlier. If there is a "viable" market for EV's, rest assured, the major automakers will take it seriously.

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No, I meant significant numbers closer to 5,000 cars per week. Which is what I expect Tesla will be producing in a matter of months.

It seems most of the major automakers have finally begun to see what the future holds- but they gave Tesla a pretty massive head start.

Volkswagen is filming commercials (in California, of course) for new EVs. I think ANY of the larger car companies can and will blow past Tesla fairly quickly if the market is there.

Funny how Tesla doesn't have to spend a penny on advertising, yet still got nearly a half million pre orders on the model 3.
Unlike at VW, world domination isn't the overarching goal at Tesla. I think they'll hold a significant niche in the EV market for many years. Very much like the iPhone does in the mobile phone market.

turbobrick240 said:

Funny how Tesla doesn't have to spend a penny on advertising, yet still got nearly a half million pre orders on the model 3.
Unlike at VW, world domination isn't the overarching goal at Tesla. I think they'll hold a significant niche in the EV market for many years. Very much like the iPhone does in the mobile phone market.

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Tend to agree with the iPhone niche...and it is a profitable niche. Tesla doesn't have to dominate the world to change the world.

It's interesting how Tesla prioritizes.
Important

• Install a big battery in their cars
• Proprietary charging infrastructure

These two things got them to where they are - the only supplier of a sort-of-convenient long-distance EV
Sort-of-important:

• Close collaboration with Panasonic + building a joint venture battery factory
• OTA updatable electronics
• Some features are different for the sake of being different
• Build a factory-owned sales network to have control over the pricing
• Build a factory-owned service network to have a service monopoly on in-warranty cars

Unimportant:

• Ultimate motor efficiency: The Roadster S and X use AC induction motors, which Tesla fans thought was a sign Tesla prioritized not needing rare earths while everybody else used more efficient motor types with rare earth permanent magnets (i3: Hybrid synchronous, e-Golf, Bolt: PM synchronous) - but now, for the Model 3, Tesla has switched to a PM synchronous design.
• Ultimate battery packing density (or they would have gone to prismatic celly by now)
• Practicality: No hatch on the Model 3 (I guess because they wanted to do the glass-roof-from-the-B-pillar back)

turbobrick240 said:

Unlike at VW, world domination isn't the overarching goal at Tesla.

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It's a German thing.

turbobrick240 said:

Funny how Tesla doesn't have to spend a penny on advertising, yet still got nearly a half million pre orders on the model 3.


Unlike at VW, world domination isn't the overarching goal at Tesla. I think they'll hold a significant niche in the EV market for many years. Very much like the iPhone does in the mobile phone market.

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....hmmmmmmm

.... me life time

.... was a time the big three (ford-gm-chy) had 98 % of the US market

oilhammer said:

Volkswagen is filming commercials (in California, of course) for new EVs. I think ANY of the larger car companies can and will blow past Tesla fairly quickly if the market is there.

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^^^^^^^^^

El Dobro said:

It's a German thing.

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Dunno. I only feel the urge to invade other nations every other day or so...

Toyota's leader publicly apologized for letting sales goals get in the way of quality control a few years ago. And GM's lofty goals sent them to the bankruptcy court eventually, starting with lame things like the Vega that got rushed into production. All big companies have the potential for issues that come back and bite them.

Speaking of Toyota, they have teamed up with Panasonic to make EV batteries. Interesting that Tesla is also involved with Panasonic. Toyota and Panasonic have a long history together, as they were instrumental in the codevelopment of some Toyota hybrid technology (they actually exchanged some of each others' stock). Probably no different than Aisin, another Toyota-embedded company, selling items like transmissions to other car companies, Volkswagen being one of them.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...int-development-of-ev-batteries-idUSKBN1E707L

One podcast (vodcast?) I watch regularly, What Drives Us, basically had the take that Toyota and Panasonic's renewed partnership (because they already had a partnership through Primearth EV Energy), might be a sign that Panasonic no longer sees Tesla as necessary for their EV goals...

turbobrick240 said:

Funny how Tesla doesn't have to spend a penny on advertising, yet still got nearly a half million pre orders on the model 3.
Unlike at VW, world domination isn't the overarching goal at Tesla. I think they'll hold a significant niche in the EV market for many years. Very much like the iPhone does in the mobile phone market.

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Not sure where you're going with the strawman statements.

Your perception of Tesla is getting the better of you.

As mentioned earlier the "EV market" is ~1% of all vehicles sold. If Tesla holds 40% of that market, does that qualify as "significant" overall? Tesla may indeed grow to be a large fish in a very small pond.

Steve Jobs & Apple invented products that really did change the world. Elon Musk talks a good game but Tesla is no Apple. It's important to separate the wheat from the chaff. It's nice that Elon wants to go to Mars, and muses about an underground highway tunnel system under LA - but the reality is that Tesla is in the business of selling sells cars, solar panels, and batteries. I'm not making this up...it's all right there in a Tesla investor's release. Do yourself a favor. Read it.

Elon Musk & Tesla didn't invent the electric motor, and lithium ion batteries were around for decades before the first Tesla Roadster was built. Comparing Elon's next electric car to the truly amazing, and (actually) revolutionary iPhone is, honestly, an insult to Apple & the memory of Steve Jobs.