I don't get the aversion to changing the crank seal proactively. You're already 90% of the way there... the only time I would leave it alone is if it's verified that it's been replaced previously. Not doing it on a high mileage vehicle is false economy imho.
If I understand it...
Seal not leaking, change seal, potential for leak afterward, so don't change it?
Seal leaking, change seal, potential for leak afterward (or not?) so do change it?
Doesn't make any sense to me.
If you have, or can make the big "mongo" crank holder (I like that term, I'll be using it!
). and can remove the crank seal without scratching the crank...
*note - Lisle makes an excellent, relatively cheap tool for this:
https://www.lislecorp.com/specialty-tools/shaft-type-seal-puller
...and you can tap the new seal in evenly, then you don't run much risk of the new seal leaking.
One caveat is if you use a newer teflon style seal, that you must be very careful, use the install sleeve, and make sure that the lip does not fold back over on install. I would also recommend waiting the 4ish hours recommended for the seal to contract over the crank.
Personally I just use the spring/lip seals where ever possible, but will install the teflon if requested.
As long as you remove correctly, and install correctly, your risk of leakage is near nil.