I'll be surprised if VW crushes 200,000 cars. We'll have to wait and see.
I won't be. Rough numbers ...
~480,000 cars involved
About 3/4 will be bought back so 360,000 cars (We know they've already bought back, or have made arrangements to buy back, most of this number) - About 50,000 per model year involved.
Anything bought back that's 2009-2010 is surely going to be history because it'll be too old to sell for a worthwhile amount, and those are the ones that need the DPF replaced because it was one piece with the LNT. That's about 30% of the total. (VW has a fix planned for those models to cover the owners that want to keep their cars. IMO none of the 2009s that were bought back will get fixed with the repair kit that includes the DPF.)
Anything with high mileage is history. What percentage of these are over 100,000 mi? Probably most of the 2011 and 2012s are. A few of the 2013s will be. Call it two more full model years - another 30%.
Now we're at 60% of the bought-back cars ... call it 200,000 give or take. VW's number makes sense.
Anything needing non-trivial repairs of any sort, or which has been modified (whether emission systems or otherwise), is history. This is where it gets harder to estimate. Vehicles are more likely to get modded or to have damage left unrepaired as they get older, and once modded they tend not to get un-modded, so the "mod+damage" percentage probably has significant overlap with the "old" and "high mileage" groups. Same situation with breakdowns.
Going at it from the other direction, 2015 models are almost certain to get fixed and re-sold (unless they had collision damage). 2014 are also highly likely. 2013 the percentage that will be high mileage, or have non-functional A/C or other problems or have been modded probably starts getting noticeable, 2012 I'll guess 50/50 odds, 2011 most will be high mileage and/or problems and/or damage and/or modded, 2010-2009 forget it. So of the bought-back cars basically 3 model years survive - about 150,000 of them. A few older ones allowed to survive will offset a few newer ones that aren't worth repairing.