Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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turbobrick240

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I'm preparing to add a 10kw ground mount array this summer as well. Right now I'm leaning toward some canadian solar 345 watt monocrystaline panels at $.64/watt. With the inverter, mounting structure , and panels the total cost should be about $1.20/ watt. That's a completely self installed estimate though. Monocrystalline panels are more efficient than polycrystalline, but that isn't a big issue when you have lots of space for ground mounts. They are also more expensive. The cheapest monocrystalline panels I've found so far are some Trina panels at $.54/watt. I believe solarworld panels have a good reputation. The highest quality I've seen are LG NeOn. I'm looking at fronius and sunny boy inverters.
 

nwdiver

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The cheapest monocrystalline panels I've found so far are some Trina panels at $.54/watt. I believe solarworld panels have a good reputation. The highest quality I've seen are LG NeOn. I'm looking at fronius and sunny boy inverters.
Have you seen these guys? They've got ridiculously cheap panels. The customer service sucks but it's worth the savings.

I'm really impressed with the new Sunny Boy inverters. The 'Secure Power Supply' feature is a nice perk.
 

pkhoury

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it sounds to me like they're using current high quality components. 325 watt panels are the current standard and I think their recommendation to do a ground mount system is a good one.
Which is good news to me. Like I said, I haven't really researched any of those components, as I've been preoccupied with other things this week (like commencement for my MA this past weekend).

Without analyzing your historical energy consumption, I can't really make a comment on their recommendation of a 7kW system. I know that in my 1,200 square foot house, we were using about 10,000 kWh per year before we got the electric cars. I would think that in your situation, with two houses, outbuildings, and more air conditioning load, you'd want a larger system. But like I said, without seeing the numbers, I can't really provide any more feedback.
I don't have the PDF they sent on this laptop handy, but I'd think a larger system would make more sense as well. I do remember on the report that a 7kWh system would reduce energy usage by roughly $100 a month, which I assume factors in the current billing rate (where I don't think we're being billed by time-of-day usage).

One thing you might want to consider is designing the system with battery backup in mind for the future. Build it so that you can add a Tesla Powerwall or similar battery backup device down the road without having to reconfigure anything. I expect utilities to offer good incentives for battery backup equipment in the future as they work to make their grids smarter with dispatchable battery backup systems for peak shaving.
The thing I'm concerned about, as jkclow mentioned, is how long said batteries would last. I'm not wild about batteries being the consumable items they are, and we all know that batteries are expensive.
 

VeeDubTDI

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The thing I'm concerned about, as jkclow mentioned, is how long said batteries would last. I'm not wild about batteries being the consumable items they are, and we all know that batteries are expensive.
Battery longevity is definitely something to keep an eye on in the coming years. It has greatly improved recently, especially with good battery management systems.

My recommendation is to make sure you leave your options available and set your system up to accept a battery backup system if you decide it's something you want to add down the road.

Congrats on the MA!
 

Owain@malonetuning

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Congrats on furthering your edumacation! 18650s are holding up fine on teslas with 200K+ miles and high amperage charge rates. But do you really want to solder a few thousand cells and individually fuse them all properly? iron phosphate is becoming really popular, there are some companies like rimac that're doing very well with them. 500KW discharge from a 4.5KWHR pack on the regera. Keep the cells in the 20-80% range with low C rates (both charging and discharging) and they should last at least a decade easily. It'll be nice to see 18650 prices come down as 2170 cell production booms and manufacturers become more open with their 18650 cell tech.

Mileage vs range remaining on the model S for anyone who hasn't seen it. Have gone into depth with the articles, there are some outliers which are primarily down to excessive full throttle and supercharging use.
https://i2.wp.com/electrek.files.wo...png?w=2000&h=&crop&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1
 

nwdiver

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Calculating battery capacity is still a little mysterious. Most Tesla drivers rarely charge >90%. I rarely charge >60%. This decreases battery degradation but increases imbalance between the cells. Since my cells are more imbalanced my car shows increased 'degradation'... until I go on a road trip and I do multiple full charges of the battery... with my battery back in balance the 'invisible' capacity slowly comes back. My capacity usually increases ~4 miles every ~2k mile trip. That bump will usually last about a month. I've always wondered how much capacity is 'hidden'...

An odd phenomenon was noted with Tesla loaner cars. Since they regularly driven by people that don't own them so they're pushed mercilessly. Supercharged often and experience regular hard acceleration. Everything we understand about batteries tells us this should be bad (and no doubt it is) but these cars have a higher remaining 'capacity' than other cars with softer lives. Likely because the hard cycling of the battery keeps the cells in balance.

My pack is 4.5 years old with 109k miles. ~5% degradation. If recent reports are accurate then the battery in a new car should last ~20 years or more...
 

Owain@malonetuning

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There is also a correlation between smaller battery packs and higher degradation rates, which backs up the findings of higher amperage rates causing gradual damage. Definitely need to run them through their paces now and again to keep everything in check though. You'd be surprised how well 18650s stay charged without battery management systems as well. I've been playing around with a few; after having to replace my 5 year old 9 cell dell battery last year only to find ALL of the cells work fine and hold ~16-1900mahr, and have similar amounts of sag under load, I started reading extensively and tinkering. All lithium has gotten a really bad rap from Lipos blowing up, when in reality iron phosphate and ion batteries are far more safe. Same deal as the anti-nuclear crowd...

EVwest doesn't use BMSs in any of their builds, Jehu garcia works with them now and has an electric samba with a combination of iron phosphate and 18650 packs. All cells are individually fused, similar to what tesla does on their packs but without BMS backup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raBWFsPlx7w&t=490s
 
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pkhoury

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Congratulations!
Congrats on the MA!
Congrats on furthering your edumacation!
Thank you gentlemen for the kind words.

Battery longevity is definitely something to keep an eye on in the coming years. It has greatly improved recently, especially with good battery management systems.

My recommendation is to make sure you leave your options available and set your system up to accept a battery backup system if you decide it's something you want to add down the road.
I'll ask about it when we talk to the rep from the co-op again. In fact, we're starting to think that mounting the panel might even be better on top of my house, since my roof faces mostly south, and the main breaker box for both houses is on my house, so less wiring to hook up to the grid.


18650s are holding up fine on teslas with 200K+ miles and high amperage charge rates. But do you really want to solder a few thousand cells and individually fuse them all properly?
Uhh, no. Been there and done that. One job I had a decade ago was rebuilding battery packs for a battery refill service in So Cal. When I got pretty good, I could build a whole pack in about 30-40 minutes, but it's a very time consuming process, and not without its risks. I couldn't imagine doing that with more than 12 cells.
iron phosphate is becoming really popular, there are some companies like rimac that're doing very well with them. 500KW discharge from a 4.5KWHR pack on the regera. Keep the cells in the 20-80% range with low C rates (both charging and discharging) and they should last at least a decade easily. It'll be nice to see 18650 prices come down as 2170 cell production booms and manufacturers become more open with their 18650 cell tech.

Mileage vs range remaining on the model S for anyone who hasn't seen it. Have gone into depth with the articles, there are some outliers which are primarily down to excessive full throttle and supercharging use.
https://i2.wp.com/electrek.files.wo...png?w=2000&h=&crop&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1
How much are individual 18650's going for anyways, for manufacturers like Toyota and Tesla who buy in bulk? I know for quality brands like Sony or LG, it still costs about 7-9 bucks each when you buy individually (and not in a crazy quantity like a large OEM).
 

turbobrick240

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I'm in a similar situation where the spot I want to mount my array isn't 100% ideal, but it's close to my service entrance and is pretty unobtrusive on the property. It looks like my preferred location will get some early morning shading in the winter months. I could put it in the middle of one of my fields and get ideal insolation, but don't want to have long wire runs or use up arable ground. A farm a few miles down the road installed a 650 panel, 200 KW community solar project last year. It's pretty impressive.
 

VeeDubTDI

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I'll ask about it when we talk to the rep from the co-op again. In fact, we're starting to think that mounting the panel might even be better on top of my house, since my roof faces mostly south, and the main breaker box for both houses is on my house, so less wiring to hook up to the grid.
Looking at the satellite image (no stalker), I don't think any of your buildings have ideal roof orientations. The southern-most building with the SSW facing roof is probably the best for solar, but energy production from a properly-oriented ground array would likely make up for the extra installation cost through increased energy production. Either way, you have some pretty good options to choose from.
 

big_red

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That would be 450 watt-hrs per mile.
That's about right for a vehicle that size. e-Golf has 35.8kWh battery and 125km range, for 286Wh/mi. A big SUV with SUV aerodynamics, AWD, and lugging around the extra weight of an ICE using 450Wh per mile would be in line with that.
 

kjclow

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Looks like VW just signed a joint agreement with China's Anhui Jianghuai Auto to manufacture electric cars next year. Wonder what China will do for their grid?
 

kjclow

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Owain@malonetuning

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How much are individual 18650's going for anyways, for manufacturers like Toyota and Tesla who buy in bulk? I know for quality brands like Sony or LG, it still costs about 7-9 bucks each when you buy individually (and not in a crazy quantity like a large OEM).
They've gotta be pushing $1/cell or so when we're talking lots of 100K+ I was looking at ~4.5-5.5 USD for a project with 100 or so (want to build a ~1.5kw mountain/dirt bike but cars keep coming up).

85kwhr tesla pack has 7104 cells, they produced nearly 84K vehicles last year, so that's ~600M cells. Been some claims of $150/KW or so floating around for larger volume.
 
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meerschm

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we spend a couple days in the Shenandoah National Park. there are now charging stations in a couple places. (some subscription needed)
 

Mike_04GolfTDI

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So our regional government has just set up a commission to study "mobility pricing."

Their missions is to figure out how to implement toll roads to collect more taxes. It was not mentioned, but I assume they're doing this because they know the fuel taxes are going to dry up when more people are driving electric cars.

I guess they don't want to raise electricity rates to make up for loss of fuel taxes. That might prompt more people to go off the grid with their own solar or wind systems.

Interesting times ahead. We're encouraged to conserve resources and then when we don't spend enough money on resources they just take the money right out of your wallet.
 

aja8888

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So our regional government has just set up a commission to study "mobility pricing."

Their missions is to figure out how to implement toll roads to collect more taxes. It was not mentioned, but I assume they're doing this because they know the fuel taxes are going to dry up when more people are driving electric cars.

I guess they don't want to raise electricity rates to make up for loss of fuel taxes. That might prompt more people to go off the grid with their own solar or wind systems.

Interesting times ahead. We're encouraged to conserve resources and then when we don't spend enough money on resources they just take the money right out of your wallet.
Our city just did this with water use rates. For a long time, the local water utility put us residents (households) on conservation schedules during drought periods as lawn watering was pulling too much water from supply wells and lakes.

So last year, we residents received a letter from the city stating water usage rates are going to be raised as the water utility's revenue has dropped due to residents cutting back on water use. First they ask us to conserve, and we do, then they raise our rates since their revenues drop. :rolleyes:
 

CraziFuzzy

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So our regional government has just set up a commission to study "mobility pricing."

Their missions is to figure out how to implement toll roads to collect more taxes. It was not mentioned, but I assume they're doing this because they know the fuel taxes are going to dry up when more people are driving electric cars.

I guess they don't want to raise electricity rates to make up for loss of fuel taxes. That might prompt more people to go off the grid with their own solar or wind systems.

Interesting times ahead. We're encouraged to conserve resources and then when we don't spend enough money on resources they just take the money right out of your wallet.
Our city just did this with water use rates. For a long time, the local water utility put us residents (households) on conservation schedules during drought periods as lawn watering was pulling too much water from supply wells and lakes.
So last year, we residents received a letter from the city stating water usage rates are going to be raised as the water utility's revenue has dropped due to residents cutting back on water use. First they ask us to conserve, and we do, then they raise our rates since their revenues drop. :rolleyes:
These are both examples of non-proportional tax/fee structures not standing the test of time. In the case of road use - it is weight and miles that ends up being directly proportional to the cost to maintain and improve roads. At one point, it was decided that it is FAR easier to simply tax the fuel, since it was generally proportional to that - heavier vehicles and vehicles that drove more, paid more for the roads. There are also some fixed costs, that are required no matter how many miles a vehicle is driven - this is things like traffic enforcement and management, administration, etc. These 'fixed' costs are best covered by a 'fixed' fee, such as registration fees. Having these fee/tax structures balanced with the actual costs works well, and can adapt. However, approximating one based on the other means that when paradigms shift, the balance is out of whack.
In the case of vehicles, the fuel based taxes don't work right when the wear on the road is no longer proportional with the fuel use (as is the case of electric and high efficiency vehicles) - this is best fixed by doing an actual mileage tax. A mileage tax ends up being a more complicated system to manage, and that increases the per vehicle administrations costs, which means registration fees would need to increase as well.
In the case of the water bill - districts that obtained most of their operating revenue from usage charges can see serious problems when usage is significantly reduced, such as times of drought. The fix for this is higher meter fees - fixed fees paid just for being connected to the system, regardless of usage. This covers the maintenance cost of the pipes from them to you, and will be there no matter how much water you use. The problem here is people get upset when they see high meter fees, because they think 'Why do I have to pay so much when I don't even use much water'?

They are both problems that are okay for some time, because they happen to be balanced, but when something comes along and shifts things significantly (environmental pushes toward energy efficiency, the ease of self generation, population increases pushing for water conservation, etc), the balance is thrown off, and things need to be adjusted. At the end of the day, you will have to pay for the roads you drive on, the electricity that lights your home, and the water you bathe with - but the methods of paying for it can get quite erratic during upheavals like these.
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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These are both examples of non-proportional tax/fee structures not standing the test of time. In the case of road use - it is weight and miles that ends up being directly proportional to the cost to maintain and improve roads. At one point, it was decided that it is FAR easier to simply tax the fuel, since it was generally proportional to that - heavier vehicles and vehicles that drove more, paid more for the roads. There are also some fixed costs, that are required no matter how many miles a vehicle is driven - this is things like traffic enforcement and management, administration, etc. These 'fixed' costs are best covered by a 'fixed' fee, such as registration fees. Having these fee/tax structures balanced with the actual costs works well, and can adapt. However, approximating one based on the other means that when paradigms shift, the balance is out of whack.


In the case of vehicles, the fuel based taxes don't work right when the wear on the road is no longer proportional with the fuel use (as is the case of electric and high efficiency vehicles) - this is best fixed by doing an actual mileage tax. A mileage tax ends up being a more complicated system to manage, and that increases the per vehicle administrations costs, which means registration fees would need to increase as well.
In the case of the water bill - districts that obtained most of their operating revenue from usage charges can see serious problems when usage is significantly reduced, such as times of drought. The fix for this is higher meter fees - fixed fees paid just for being connected to the system, regardless of usage. This covers the maintenance cost of the pipes from them to you, and will be there no matter how much water you use. The problem here is people get upset when they see high meter fees, because they think 'Why do I have to pay so much when I don't even use much water'?

They are both problems that are okay for some time, because they happen to be balanced, but when something comes along and shifts things significantly (environmental pushes toward energy efficiency, the ease of self generation, population increases pushing for water conservation, etc), the balance is thrown off, and things need to be adjusted. At the end of the day, you will have to pay for the roads you drive on, the electricity that lights your home, and the water you bathe with - but the methods of paying for it can get quite erratic during upheavals like these.
On Topic EVs are a mess. Glad I own my TDi

Off Topic. Tulsa finally solved the ambulance cost issue. Responsible people paid. Not responsible people? It was a laughter. Best health insurance in the world. (1) Ride the ambulance, (2) get well in hospital, (3) toss the bills.

Now Tulsa adds $5.00 to every water bill. EMSA bills now funded. :D
 

rotarykid

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On Topic EVs are a mess. Glad I own my TDi
Off Topic. Tulsa finally solved the ambulance cost issue. Responsible people paid. Not responsible people? It was a laughter. Best health insurance in the world. (1) Ride the ambulance, (2) get well in hospital, (3) toss the bills.
Now Tulsa adds $5.00 to every water bill. EMSA bills now funded. :D
This is really inappropriate for here...... I personally know people who could pay their hospital bill & end up on the street and starve to death. ...or use bankruptcy and still.end up homeless. ....and they do work full time!!!!!....the irisponsible part of this has nothing to do with them being unable to afford the bills. ...
 

bhtooefr

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Updated numbers from the Union of Concerned Scientists are available on the greenhouse gas impact of EVs, using 2014 grid mix data instead of 2009 data:



Remember to add roughly 13% to those MPG numbers to compare to diesel GHG emissions.
 

Oilerlord

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Nobel Prize winner disputes Global Warming

Found this interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXxHfb66ZgM

A guy posted this on a Chevy Bolt site that I frequent. It's a former Nobel Prize winning scientist that calls the science of climate change "pseudoscience", and claims Global Warming has become a religion. I tend to agree, at least on the latter.

Is CO2 really the enemy? There are some smart guys on the Bolt forum, one suggested that buying an EV is a "categorical imperative" in the fight against climate change. Is it really?

So, if we don't all buy an EV...just how many years does our planet have left? 30 years? 50? 100?

Is it possible that the planet's modest rise in CO2 from 1900-present day may have been caused because the world's population went from 1.5 to 7 billion people living on it?
 
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VeeDubTDI

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Found this interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXxHfb66ZgM

A guy posted this on a Chevy Bolt site that I frequent. It's a former Nobel Prize winning scientist that calls the science of climate change "pseudoscience", and claims Global Warming has become a religion. I tend to agree, at least on the latter.

Is CO2 really the enemy? There are some smart guys on the Bolt forum, one suggested that buying an EV is a "categorical imperative" in the fight against climate change. Is it really?

So, if we don't all buy an EV...just how many years does our planet have left? 30 years? 50? 100?

Is it possible that the planet's modest rise in CO2 from 1900-present day may have been caused because the world's population went from 1.5 to 7 billion people living on it?
This is not a global warming debate thread. Also, if you search, you'll find that this topic is on the banned subject list. This gentleman's opinion is certainly in the scientific minority.
 

Oilerlord

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This is not a global warming debate thread. Also, if you search, you'll find that this topic is on the banned subject list. This gentleman's opinion is certainly in the scientific minority.
My apologies to anyone this has offended.

It is interesting however we're not even supposed to discuss CO2, only accept that it's supposedly the #1 environmental issue of our time. We can debate NOx and SO2, and allow a shill to prospect for solar business in this thread, no problem. We can post charts on emissions that contribute to global warming - but we're not allowed to challenge the premise behind them.

I think science should be open to discussion. When it isn't, it isn't science anymore. It's religion.
 
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turbobrick240

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I'll take NASA's data over the rants of one elderly physicist.
 

VeeDubTDI

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My apologies to anyone this has offended.

It is interesting however we're not even supposed to discuss CO2, only accept that it's supposedly the #1 environmental issue of our time. We can debate NOx and SO2, and allow a shill to prospect for solar business in this thread, no problem. We can post charts on emissions that contribute to global warming - but we're not allowed to challenge the premise behind them.

I think science should be open to discussion. When it isn't, it isn't science anymore. It's religion.
I'm not sure what you're getting at when you say that science isn't open to discussion. Around the planet, scientists, governments and regular people are focusing on this very subject - researching it, discussing it and forming global agreements to address it.

If you want to discuss it in depth on TDIClub, my recommendation would be to start a thread in the help and support forum requesting that global warming be removed from the banned subject list. I agree that it's an important topic to discuss - the problem in the past was with members who couldn't handle having adult discussions about difficult subjects.
 
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