Wretched Resale

krebsy75

Veteran Member
Joined
Dec 24, 2012
Location
Chester County, Pa.
TDI
2012 Sportwagen DSG; 2014 Golf 6MT; 2014 Sportwagen DSG; 2015 Golf SEL DSG
I have pondered trading my 2015 Golf TDI SEL for one of the leftover Touareg TDIs. To my dismay, the value of my Golf (per KBB) has tanked another $2K in just a couple of months.


If you haven't checked the trade-in for your TDI in awhile, you may be in for a highly unpleasant shock. I had originally intended to keep my Golf until the wheels fell off. And I guess that's how this one is going to play out.


I suppose it's a perfect storm of supply/demand, TDI reputation and the crossover craze.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
There are tons of these cars available now. And a 2015 is likely to be CPO from a dealer, which is hard for a private seller to compete with.
 

Lightflyer1

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Location
Round Rock, Texas
TDI
2015 Beetle tdi dsg
You should have known this from the beginning. It has been discussed here before as well. Being shocked that prices are lower as VW is dumping bought back cars on the market is a real surprise. Once the supply has dwindled I expect them to hold their value or increase slightly as no more will be available other than the used market. The market always favors either the buyer or the seller but rarely both. This is the exact reason the inflated payouts were given for the buybacks and probably why the Touareg is a choice for you.
 

740GLE

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Aug 19, 2009
Location
NH
TDI
2015 Passat SEL, 2017 Alltrack SE; BB 2010 Sedan Man; 2012 Passat,
I kinda want them to tank, so when the wife wants to upgrade it'd just make more sense for me to get her Passat, retire the Alltrak for AWD needs and become a three car household.

Our '15 was abut $28K about 18 months ago, it's a 4-5 year old car with a crappy nav system and those things really haven't changed when we drove it off the lot. I knew resale was going to be abysmal, prob around 15K now.

Heck our '17 Alltrack has also tanked hard, a 30K car is now prob around 18K.

If you want a VW that holds its value buy a Westfaila, a Eurovan, or a Golf R.
 

krebsy75

Veteran Member
Joined
Dec 24, 2012
Location
Chester County, Pa.
TDI
2012 Sportwagen DSG; 2014 Golf 6MT; 2014 Sportwagen DSG; 2015 Golf SEL DSG
You should have known this from the beginning. It has been discussed here before as well. Being shocked that prices are lower as VW is dumping bought back cars on the market is a real surprise. Once the supply has dwindled I expect them to hold their value or increase slightly as no more will be available other than the used market. The market always favors either the buyer or the seller but rarely both. This is the exact reason the inflated payouts were given for the buybacks and probably why the Touareg is a choice for you.

There's a variety of factors at play here. One thing is for sure, as long as fuel is cheap, the market for TDIs will never return.



Per AutoTrader there are only 444 common-rail TDI Golfs available for sale nationwide with less than 30K miles. Among those 444, only 101 are CPO. That tells me that the market for lightly-used samples is beyond small. It's non-existent (all things considered.)



(Golf shoppers are less likely to consider other TDI models which are predominately sedans.)
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
Plus, the newest tdi's are 4 model years old now.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
I think more low mileage TDIs will appear for resale in the coming months as some owners who waited as long as possible are now selling their cars back. They'll take a little time to work through the auction process, but I'm betting they'll be around soon.

Sadly, I agree, for smaller vehicles, there's no real incentive for people to buy diesel with fuel prices where they are currently. Diesel still makes sense for trucks, and may also make sense for large luxury cars, although I doubt many manufacturers will bother with that segment in this market either.
 

KITEWAGON

Veteran Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2009
Location
Seacoast, NH
TDI
2014 Touareg Exec, 2014 JSW
Definitely not a good time to dump a used TDI. I've had times when I wished I had held out for a loaded up 2015 GSW SEL rather than getting the super clean 2014 base model that I paid a premium for but I think I'd be taking a $3-4k or so bath on it if I decided to move on now.

The price for the 2011 and 2012 cars with 100k+ miles have fallen ridiculously low. I kind of wish I had held out for one of those as well. I saw a 2011 JSW with about 120k miles on the local CL for $6k a couple weeks ago! And it looked nice.

Diesel price premium is a real drag right now. When traveling this week I was surprised to see how big the spread was. $2.30 for RUG and $3.00 for diesel. I don't remember a 30% price premium in a long time. My neutered TDI getting 38 MPG or so is not saving me any money on fuel compared to a similar gasser.

All that said, I wouldn't use KBB for anything but entertainment. I'd check current asking prices to gauge what its really worth.
 

Lightflyer1

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Location
Round Rock, Texas
TDI
2015 Beetle tdi dsg
Diesel is dropping just like gas is. $1.94 for gas and $2.64 for Diesel. As long as both are dropping I will not be unhappy with the price, whatever it is. I am saving money just because the price is dropping. Besides I didn't buy it just to save on fuel. I like he car and the warranty.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
Another reason may be that a sizable percentage of tdi buyers liked the idea that they were driving a "green" car. The polluting pariah perception doesn't sell many cars.
 

ZippyNH

Veteran Member
Joined
Apr 22, 2015
Location
Southern NH
TDI
2015 JETTA TDI SE
The re-sale of ANY 4 door CAR has tanked...
If it's not a SUV/CUV, they aren't selling.
Then add the baggage of the scandal...
Who cares, I got my $$$, a great warranty, and still plan to drive it till it's about 10+ years old.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
The re-sale of ANY 4 door CAR has tanked...
If it's not a SUV/CUV, they aren't selling.
Ironic, isn't it, that people sold back their "dirty diesels" to replace them with SUVs that get have the MPG, or less. I know that MPG doesn't necessarily equate with clean, but I can't help thinking it matters.

It's true that cars are not in favor right now. That's a dilemma for electric car manufacturers. Don't think anyone's made an electric pickup yet.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
Well, they haven't really made it. The video says it's two years away. I wonder if those are Tesla years.
 

mxtdiguy

Veteran Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2017
Location
Mexico
TDI
'16 sportwagen TDI sel 6mt
Well, they haven't really made it. The video says it's two years away. I wonder if those are Tesla years.
Well, they made one :)

Tesla should buy Rivian , If I had a deposit down for a Tesla, I'd ask for my money back to reserve a Rivian for sure.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
Well, they made one :)
Tesla should buy Rivian , If I had a deposit down for a Tesla, I'd ask for my money back to reserve a Rivian for sure.
Kinda risky giving reservation money to a startup company that hasn't made a single production vehicle yet. The specs they are claiming are pretty impressive, no doubt.
 

johnnloki

Veteran Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2007
Location
bowmanville ON
TDI
04 Golf TDI
As a Mk4 TDI owner, a Mk7 GTI owner and a Chevy Volt owner, I'm far more excited by the coming VW ID line up than anything Tesla's got, or almost any other pending EV.


On TDI resale values, while the TDI you just bought might feel `new`, it is almost 4 years old and probably wont evolve for the better over time.

I get the feeling VW held on to, fixed and re-released pretty much the perfect number of TDIs to satisfy the actual demand in North America. Everyone who still really wanted one pretty much got one.
The aftermarket`s there, sure, but I don`t know if we can expect the evolution of power mods that we saw in previous gen small diesels.

RUG is crazy cheap right now, exacerbated by the annual diesel price climb for heating fuel.

RUG cars really have caught up a lot in terms of highway fuel economy.

Small turbo engines have caught up a lot to TDIs in terms of torque delivery (and they've managed to do it without variable vane geometry turbos... I never would have guessed that would have happened a decade ago).


Cars continue to evolve and improve. The Kia Niro in two years went from a hybrid, to PHEV to full on long range EV. Heck, even the lowly Prius now has an AWD option.


Makes me sad that my dream car will likely never be made- a TTR PHEV AWD TDI Wagon (with a stick, in brown, naturally). It did really look like we were getting close there for a while.

Or how about a Volt style PHEV with a TDI generator and a `fifth`gear connected to that TDI that kicks on at speeds above 55 MPH... which is the achillies heel of most EVs for efficiency.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
VW is going to continue to sell the bought back cars until they're gone. Our local dealer estimates this will take another 1-2 years. Not sure of implications for values on cars in the fleet, but they'll most likely fall. Obviously that doesn't matter unless you're selling.

Diesel fuel prices are already getting back in line with RUG, it seems. The price spike this fall was greater than usual, but they're normalizing.

RUG cars are better than they used to be, but they haven't caught up with diesels in power or economy, yet. For example, the 2019 Golf with the 1.4T gas engine has 147 HP, 184 lb/ft of torque, and is EPA rated at 29/37. That doesn't compare favorably to the '15 Golf TDI, which is 150/236, and 30/42. And all of us who drive diesels know that they are more likely than gas cars to meet or exceed their EPA numbers in actual use.

Kia had always planned on a Niro EV. And yes, Prius has an AWD option now, to try and reverse the drop in sales in the past several years. There's talk of discontinuing it.

We live in an interesting time of transition. Like the stock market, I doubt anyone can predict how vehicle propulsion and purchases will play out over the next decade. Stay tuned.
 
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ezshift5

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2003
Location
West Coast
TDI
2013 JSW TDI (Enroute BB).......2017 Jetta 1.4 turbo 5M ....................
VW is going to continue to sell the bought back cars until they're gone.

RUG cars are better than they used to be, but they haven't caught up with diesels in power or economy, yet. For example, the 2019 Golf with the 1.4T gas engine has 147 HP, 184 lb/ft of torque, and is EPA rated at 29/37. That doesn't compare favorably to the '15 Golf TDI, which is 150/236, and 30/42. And all of us who drive diesels know that they are more likely than gas cars to meet or exceed their EPA numbers in actual use.

We live in an interesting time of transition. Like the stock market, I doubt anyone can predict how vehicle propulsion and purchases will play out over the next decade. Stay tuned.

Yes Señor Wagon, we do indeed live in a "time of transition"...........
 

Dwagen

Veteran Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2018
Location
United States of America
TDI
2004 VW Jetta GLS TDI; 2013 VW Jetta Sportwagen TDI
That's precisely the reason I bought my '13 JSW TDI. I love wagons, the right amount of space and utility, the low-end torque of the diesel engine, and most of all the extended warranty. If it wasn't for the extended warranty, I wouldn't have even considered buying mine. I might have read too many HPFP-failure stories :rolleyes:

I had thought I got a decent deal on mine, but I got mine just as they were appearing on the market. Now with more and more TDI's flooding the market, I see JSWs similar to mine for $1000's less than I paid for mine. Oh well. I'm still happy with mine, despite all the problems I've been having with it (leaking pano, jerking DSG, faulty EGT sensor).
 

Z85rado

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 21, 2017
Location
Highlands NJ
TDI
2015 Sportwaged TDI
I was thinking about this tonight.. we're a 4 car household with 2 drivers and the VW is losing(lost) its value the quickest, we are grossly upside down(again, no shock). unfortunately we need a wagon/CUV/SUV because of the dog crate, want a stick, love the diesel TQ & economy even with a box.

would you call it a paradox or oxymoron?
 

mcclurken

Member
Joined
Dec 26, 2018
Location
Tennessee, USA
TDI
2014 Jetta Sportwagen DSG
The poor resale caught my eye yesterday. I purchased a 2006 Golf tdi from a coworker a few weeks ago. He definitely gave me a friendly price and I am enjoying the car even with the automatic. So much that I'm looking around to see what it would cost to get everything I want. I found on Carvana some 2015 SportWagens with manual, heated seats, sunroof (I know, but I like them) and even a backup camera for around $16k, more or less depending on mileage. And the Golfs and Jettas are cheaper than that. I'm guessing that means the person who sold the car to Carvana or whereever they get cars from got far less. My Ford Focus ST is depreciating at about the same rate but I would've expected the VW to do better. I always thought American cars dropped faster than Euro.


Now I'm looking around to see if there's a reason not to get a Mk7.
 

bigb

Veteran Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2018
Location
Arizona
TDI
2015 Sportwagon S
Most of the 2015 GSW "S" models under 30,000 miles that I looked at were in the 15-16K range price wise. I paid 14,900 out the door for mine (taxes, registration etc) and I think it was a fair price with 27K on it but I could be wrong. Sometimes I think I should have waited for a CPO from a VW dealer but crap there was nothing in white, and not even a 2015 in Tucson, just a 14 Jetta, in blue, had to go to Phoenix to get the only white 2015 in the state. I am happy with it I guess that's what counts. It does have a tiny dent on the passenger rocker that is so small I never saw it till two days after I brought it home and the late afternoon sunlight was hitting it just right.
 
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IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
It's kind of funny, that back in '17 I bought my '15 GSW S Manual that was new never, titled, and had 300 miles on it, mostly driving by an IDParts colleague as we'd borrowed the car for a video the previous year. With the $8,500 discount VW was offering and a dealer discount my out the door cost was about $16,500. I paid off the lease a few months later and with the associated lease fees and interest my cost was just over $17K. At the time people thought that was way to much to pay for the car, and many passed on getting new leftover cars because they thought they were too expensive.

With that in mind, costs today aren't lower: In fact you could argue that they're higher, as I have all of a 11 year, 162K mile warranty, and a 3 year/36 month bumper to bumper warranty that started when I took delivery in 2017. So maybe the values of these cars hasn't dropped as much as people feel it has.
 

Z85rado

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 21, 2017
Location
Highlands NJ
TDI
2015 Sportwaged TDI
I don't think the resale is out of line.

I think that at a point these will plateau(esp the wagons). There will always be a small group of people who value a manual transmission and love the dynamics of a diesel.

The post earlier about a TDI touareg - a friend of mine bought a 14 with 49K on it. I was visiting him in Florida and we did all 4 rotors. I almost fell over when i saw mono block brembos at all 4 corners!

The auto tranny in it with a TDI was my first experience with that combo. Definitely shifted different than i would have expected/done myself and the "manual mode" has wayyy too much lag for me. all in all though great driving vehicle. he drove north for christmas and averaged just under 30
 

mcclurken

Member
Joined
Dec 26, 2018
Location
Tennessee, USA
TDI
2014 Jetta Sportwagen DSG
I don't think the resale is out of line.
After thinking about it a bit more I'm not so sure the resale is all that poor. And Dieselgate is an anomaly that is hard to factor, for me anyway. Maybe the low mileage is skewing my perception. Over the years whenever I met someone with a diesel of any sort they usually put massive miles on it and a lot of these cars that I'm seeing have relatively low miles.



I test drove a VW with DSG when I was buying my GTI in '12. What turned me off of it was the lag and clunk from a dead stop. As in stopping at a traffic light. That's the only time I drove one so that might not be a good characterization but that is how I remember it. I work with a guy that had a TDI with DSG and his only complaint was the 40k fluid change and the cost at the dealer to do the job. So when VW offered him a buyout he took it and ran.
 
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