(Possible) Scenario: The Buy Back of the Buy Back

Gary Barnhill

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Joined
Oct 17, 2001
Location
Corona del Mar, CA
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2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
Jackie Mason the old comedian joked about prostitution: What a great business; you got it, you sell it, but you still got it.

(Possible) Scenario: The Buy Back of the Buy Back

(Buy Back hereafter shortened to BB)

Personal Assumption #1: 2016 VW TDi will not be modified. There are too few vehicles to mess with. Not worth the candle. My dealer has 25 of the 2015 VW TDi for every one 2016 TDi waiting on the back lot. True or not, please don’t hijack the thread over this point. Note: page 15 chart only lists 2009 to 2015 TDi vehicles for emissions modification submittal dates and deadlines.

Personal Assumption #2: There will be a modification for all Generation 2 and Gen 3 VW TDi cars i.e. certain 2012-2015 TDi.

Personal Assumption #3: There may be a modification for Generation 1 VW TDi vehicles. Taking no bets but my guess is; there will be a fix unless the fix costs more that value of the vehicle. Example: super high mile 2009.

Personal Assumption #4: VW will resell BB vehicles in the USA after they modify the vehicles.

Personal Assumption #5: VW will sell brand new 2018 and 2019 model year TDi vehicles. Maybe 2017.

In my case; I will accept VW BB circa August 2018 when my car is exactly five years old. MSRP was $31,125. Got $5,000 discount. I paid $28,752 with taxes. Turn in with 43,550 miles for a + $4470 mileage adjustment. BB amount is $28,727. (Modification amount is about $7200 if I choose that route.)

I estimate a five-year old Passat TDi, when modified, is worth 30% of MSRP, maybe 40% depending on the market. So, I assume $10,000 to $12,000 resale value by some VW dealer.

If wrong about Assumption #4 then these precious modified TDi will be worth more. e.g. I sold my 5-year old Jetta TDi wagon for almost MSRP circa 2008 after California had banned diesel sales 2004-2008.

The VW dealer is not the entity doing the BB. VW AG doing the BB and paying the owner.

But, methinks the dealer is going to be standing there when I turn my car in. He’s going to look it over and say to the VW AG representative; I’d like to buy this cherry from you. If the car is crap he won’t make an offer to the VW AG rep who buys the car and will ship it out within 48 hours (call that a rumor).

The VW dealer wants to keep the good cars and is motivated to get paid for the “warranty work” by VW AG to modify the TDi.

Then the dealer will sell the TDi for a profit. This is similar to what happens to cars coming off lease. Some manufacturers let all dealers bid on cars coming off lease.

Now, if I keep an eye on my dealers used car lot; couldn’t I buy back my own Passat the next week, after it is modified, for around $12,000 (plus another $1,000 tax in CA)?

Bottom Line: You had it. You sold it. A week later you got it back, and approximately $16,000 in pocket (in my case).

Now, as I see it; instead of a BB, I could go for a modification and keep my Passat, i.e. the same result, I had it and I still got it, but that route will leave about $8,000 or $9,000 dollars on the table.

Just my two cents. Your mileage may vary.
 
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banshee365

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Location
FL
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06 Jetta
I had thought about this exact thing. I'm not sure if the cars will be able to stay within the dealer or if they are going to be shipping them off to depots as they are bought back. I don't think there is really much VW can do to keep this from happening. They are court ordered to buy them back, VW is going to want to recoup any money back they can by reselling modified cars, and they are only going to be able to get market value for them. For someone wanting to keep their car it would be something worth looking at.

But, there are many chances that it just won't be that easy to get your car back.
 

bizzle

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Southern California
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2015 GSW SEL (totaled), 2013 Touareg Executive
If you are going to get $16K for the car and then buy it back for around $12K (+1K in taxes), that is only $3K in your pocket (and that's ignoring dealer fees, etc. bringing it closer to $1500 or more). How do you think you'd be getting $9K back?

Wouldn't you be better off simply keeping it and taking the fix along with compensation?
 

k1xv

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Apr 4, 2009
Location
southern Vermont
TDI
09 TDI sedan, sold back 12/16. Present cars 2013 BMW X5 diesel, 2015 Corvette convertible
The cars have a tainted reputation in the public eye, and they will be putting a lot of them on the national market over a short period of time. This has to knock down the resale prices from the Sept 2015 value.

If they had a web site that you could search for cars by VIN, you could find out if your old car is being offered for sale, and where.
 

Freeze Plug

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Location
CT
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Turd Sandwich
If you are going to get $16K for the car and then buy it back for around $12K (+1K in taxes), that is only $3K in your pocket (and that's ignoring dealer fees, etc. bringing it closer to $1500 or more). How do you think you'd be getting $9K back?

Wouldn't you be better off simply keeping it and taking the fix along with compensation?
the buyback amount stated above is $28K and change
 

Locoelectrician

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Jan 10, 2015
Location
Ohio
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2015 Passat TDI SEL, 2015 Golf SEL Sportwagen, 2005 Jetta TDI, John Deere 355D
If they had a web site that you could search for cars by VIN, you could find out if your old car is being offered for sale, and where.
www.google.com

If I search my vin right now it still shows the listing for when I bought it 3 years ago. Most car listings online include the vin so that people can look at carfax or whatever. I also had an Idea for a community info pool on buybacks.

http://forums.tdiclub.com/showthread.php?t=465055
 

Gary Barnhill

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Joined
Oct 17, 2001
Location
Corona del Mar, CA
TDI
2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
If you are going to get $16K for the car and then buy it back for around $12K (+1K in taxes), that is only $3K in your pocket (and that's ignoring dealer fees, etc. bringing it closer to $1500 or more). How do you think you'd be getting $9K back?

Wouldn't you be better off simply keeping it and taking the fix along with compensation?
In my HYPOTHETICAL scenario:

I hand VW my 2013 Passat.

VW hands me a check for $28,727.

The following week I purchase my old Passat, now modified, from the VW dealer's used car lot for as estimated price of $13,000 including taxes.

I now have my old car back and almost $16,000 in my pocket.

Stated differently: I give VW my Passat. The next week: VW gives me back TWO Passats plus free gas coupons for 48,000 miles of driving.
 

bring

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Joined
Jun 21, 2015
Location
Boston
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'15 Jetta SEL, DSG
Keep dreaming - the modification of your buyback (if it even happens) will not occur a week after the transaction. Keep in mind, VW is buying back the cars, not the dealer. In order to modify your buyback, wouldn't the dealer have to first buy it from VW?
 

Gary Barnhill

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Location
Corona del Mar, CA
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2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
I doubt we see any future 4 cyl TDIs here in the US
Quote from Diesel Technology Forum:

Volkswagen’s brand chief isn’t giving up on diesels in the U.S. market despite the company’s emissions scandal that has undermined the eco-friendly credentials of the niche powertrain. Herbert Diess says that diesels will continue to have a role in Volkswagen’s U.S. lineup because, with the latest emissions technologies, diesels can be clean. He also touted the long range and high torque of diesel engines.
VW brand chief says diesels will stay in U.S. lineup (Automotive News, 1/6/16)
 

Gary Barnhill

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Joined
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Location
Corona del Mar, CA
TDI
2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
Keep dreaming - the modification of your buyback (if it even happens) will not occur a week after the transaction. Keep in mind, VW is buying back the cars, not the dealer. In order to modify your buyback, wouldn't the dealer have to first buy it from VW?
The new unsold 2015 TDi fix is a two phase operation. Initial fix requires minimal time to be followed by phase two requiring nine hours of labor. That might provide some insight into required fix time. I doubt more than a week ie 40 hours labor, is required. Just a guess.

As stated in my scenario: VW AG buys back the car. Not the dealer. Yes, the dealer then buys the car from VW AG assuming the dealer thinks that car has resale possibilities.
 

bring

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Joined
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Location
Boston
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'15 Jetta SEL, DSG
The new unsold 2015 TDi fix is a two phase operation. Initial fix requires minimal time to be followed by phase two requiring nine hours of labor. That might provide some insight into required fix time. I doubt more than a week ie 40 hours labor, is required. Just a guess.

As stated in my scenario: VW AG buys back the car. Not the dealer. Yes, the dealer then buys the car from VW AG assuming the dealer thinks that car has resale possibilities.

Even if you had a gen 3, no chance that all happens within a week - my guess is a year might be more likely
 

Gary Barnhill

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Location
Corona del Mar, CA
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2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
please point to where it states 4 cylinder TDIs?
Apparently, Herbert Diess did not make a distinction as to how many cylinders VW will use if they return to VW's U.S. lineup.

Excerpt from article:
Herbert Diess says that diesels will continue to have a role in Volkswagen’s U.S. lineup because, with the latest emissions technologies, diesels can be clean. He also touted the long range and high torque of diesel engines.

“I wouldn’t give up diesel, even in the U.S.,” Diess told reporters on the sidelines of VW’s CES keynote here Tuesday night
 
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bring

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Right - I never said they would stop selling 6 cylinder (or larger) TDIs here in the US
 
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TDINJ

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Aug 9, 2002
Location
Neptune, NJ
TDI
No longer own one.
This was in January, now almost 8 months ago. I wish it to be true, but my gut feeling says 4cyl TDI's are gone. The V6 in the Touareg, Q7, etc., maybe.


Quote from Diesel Technology Forum:
Volkswagen’s brand chief isn’t giving up on diesels in the U.S. market despite the company’s emissions scandal that has undermined the eco-friendly credentials of the niche powertrain. Herbert Diess says that diesels will continue to have a role in Volkswagen’s U.S. lineup because, with the latest emissions technologies, diesels can be clean. He also touted the long range and high torque of diesel engines.
VW brand chief says diesels will stay in U.S. lineup (Automotive News, 1/6/16)
 

evoblade

Veteran Member
Joined
May 16, 2012
Location
Sterling, VA
TDI
2009 VW Jetta TDI
I thought one of the conditions of the deal was VWAG had to send any car they bought back to the crusher. Is that not the case? If they will in fact be able to resell them, then selling it and buying another is probably a good option, if the numbers are right. I wouldn't count on getting your same one back, though.
 

Gary Barnhill

Veteran Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2001
Location
Corona del Mar, CA
TDI
2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
Keep dreaming - the modification of your buyback (if it even happens) will not occur a week after the transaction. Keep in mind, VW is buying back the cars, not the dealer. In order to modify your buyback, wouldn't the dealer have to first buy it from VW?
Actually, it's not my dream. I will go for the buy back. No intention to repurchase my 2013 Passat. Therefore, for me, the point of one week or one year for a fix is immaterial.

My plan is to purchase another brand in August 2018 with phenomenal semi-autonomous features and reportedly 54-60 mpg. I may be off on calculation of L/100 km is 4.3 to 3.9. Although, I'm open to considering a 2019 Passat TDi with semi-autonomous features should that car become available.

The point in initiating this thread is to show one hypothetical situation comparing the in pocket financial result of Buy Back vs. Modification in the event your presently owned TDi becomes available for repurchase.
 

Gary Barnhill

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Joined
Oct 17, 2001
Location
Corona del Mar, CA
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2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
www.google.com

If I search my vin right now it still shows the listing for when I bought it 3 years ago. Most car listings online include the vin so that people can look at carfax or whatever. I also had an Idea for a community info pool on buybacks.

http://forums.tdiclub.com/showthread.php?t=465055
I think your idea for a community info pool is a GREAT idea.

With over 400,000 cars involved it would be a major undertaking somewhat like finding a needle in a haystack.

Perhaps if there was a separate thread for each state is would somewhat simplify the issue.

I would love to learn how you propose to present the info. Ideally, a spread sheet showing; model, year, miles, options, condition, dealer turn in site, turn in date, etc. Something a potential buyer can scan. e.g. maybe they only are interested in a SEL Passat and not an SE.

I envision something like: hey, gang, I'm turning my 2013 Passat SE w/SR-NAV in Oct 01, 2018 with only 43,000 miles. I added a quality backup camera. Turn in dealer is Acme Motors, Anytown, CA. One owner. Always garaged. The car had the following issues in it's life time.

If logistically possible; a thread for each state and each model would be helpful ie some will only be searching for a GSW and not other models.

Getting deeper in the weeds; someone might be turning in a car with perfect rims and 70% tread and do a swap with someone within say 60 miles that has bald tires.

Your idea is GREAT and I hope you pursue it.
 
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gearheadgrrrl

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Dec 15, 2002
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Buffalo Ridge (southwest Minnesota)
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'15 Golf DSG, '13 JSW DSG surrendered to VW, '03 Golf 2 door manual
The problem here is that the incentives are out of whack... Too much for turn in and too low for keep and let them fix it. As a result, used TDIs will be next to worthless if VW fixes them and dumps them on the market, and after VW fixes and tries to remarked a few TDIs they'll probably figure that out. So good luck getting buying your TDI back- It may end up sitting for a couple years in a big lot far away before VW gives up and scraps it. Then again, you might get lucky and be able to do a side deal with your dealer and buy back your very own "fixed" TDI!
 

Gary Barnhill

Veteran Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2001
Location
Corona del Mar, CA
TDI
2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
The problem here is that the incentives are out of whack... Too much for turn in and too low for keep and let them fix it. As a result, used TDIs will be next to worthless if VW fixes them and dumps them on the market, and after VW fixes and tries to remarked a few TDIs they'll probably figure that out. So good luck getting buying your TDI back- It may end up sitting for a couple years in a big lot far away before VW gives up and scraps it. Then again, you might get lucky and be able to do a side deal with your dealer and buy back your very own "fixed" TDI!
My General Manager has indicated he plans to personally greet each owner/lessee when they return their cars.

He has indicated he will have a shot at purchasing the car from VW AG immediately after it is turned in.

Obviously, he wants to cherry pick the good cars the same as he would do with trade in cars. He makes a warranty profit for the modification and another profit from selling a used car.

A former tenant was a wholesaler of high end cars. He said the margins on new cars was thin but the margins on used cars was huge. On a Mercedes Benz a dealer was looking for a $4,000 profit and no less than $2,000. I don't think those numbers apply to used VW.

He indicates that VW AG plans to remove all cars within 48 hours that he doesn't want to purchase from VW AG.

If that scenario plays out has he expects; a person turning in their car should have a reasonable expectation of buying back their own car within a reasonable period of time.

The dealer wants to fix then flip cars ASAP. If, when turning in your car, you tell the GM you are interested in purchasing your car back after modification I doubt he's going to tell a willing buyer to buzz off. I think it will be more like; "can you come around next Tuesday?"
 
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