Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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kjclow

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Yeah... because it's instant and local... the ground beneath the turbine warms slightly because the air mixes. The effect goes away instantly too unlike the effect of using fossil fuels which lingers for centuries.
When you start out with a false based argument, it puts all the rest of your post in question. Fossil fuels have been the main propulsion source for may 100 years, or one century. Kind of hard to determine that their effect lingers for centuries.
 

eddieleephd

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When you start out with a false based argument, it puts all the rest of your post in question. Fossil fuels have been the main propulsion source for may 100 years, or one century. Kind of hard to determine that their effect lingers for centuries.
How long exactly did it take for the Earth's environment to become able to sustain human life after dinosaur's became extinct again. With the deforestation we have managed it's scientifically proven that the planet would take quite a long time to recover from fossil fuel emissions of the last 100 years. Emissions requirements in the US don't even help, much.

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nwdiver

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Matt-98AHU

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How long exactly did it take for the Earth's environment to become able to sustain human life after dinosaur's became extinct again. With the deforestation we have managed it's scientifically proven that the planet would take quite a long time to recover from fossil fuel emissions of the last 100 years. Emissions requirements in the US don't even help, much.

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Emissions requirements in the U.S. have nothing to do with carbon emissions. They only car about what causes smog, not about carbon output. At least for the moment.

Europe is an example of favoring carbon emissions over localized smog, in which they incentivized diesel before they could be clean with the current NOx reduction tech and DPFs. It didn't do their air quality much good.

And actually, what many people don't see is how our pursuit of emissions controls has actually INCREASED CO2 output. Not taking into account differences in fuel economy, one of the main chemical reactions of a catalytic converter is to take unburned hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide and convert them to mostly CO2 and water vapor. Yes, our efforts to make local air quality better has actually increased CO2 output.

Very much a case of one step forward, two backwards. That having been said, I'm not going to recommend removing catalytic converters. Have you driven behind an old car without one recently? Pretty nasty stuff to breath.

That having been said, I don't think any single energy efficient technology should be overlooked while we transition to better technology. Diesels CAN meet the stringent regulations without cheating. It has been done repeatedly. I see no reason to single them out to be entirely removed from the market while we're still in a transition period to either battery electric or some other, better form of clean, safe propulsion.

The production volume isn't going to be anywhere near high enough to displace every internal combustion vehicle currently still operating for some time. The infrastructure is also not there and battery electric still has some qualities that in some situations makes it less convenient to use. That will change as things develop, of course, but I rather dislike continually hearing how inferior any fuel efficient technology that's not battery electric is. Simply put, we cannot put everyone into a battery electric for a long time to come yet. Chill out and let other interim, efficient alternatives to help fill the gaps in the meantime.

The last part of this post was not pointed at anyone in particular. Just an overall frustration of hearing how superior battery electric is without taking into account the shear challenge of scale of the technology at the moment.
 

nwdiver

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That will change as things develop, of course, but I rather dislike continually hearing how inferior any fuel efficient technology that's not battery electric is. Simply put, we cannot put everyone into a battery electric for a long time to come yet. Chill out and let other interim, efficient alternatives to help fill the gaps in the meantime.
The last part of this post was not pointed at anyone in particular. Just an overall frustration of hearing how superior battery electric is without taking into account the shear challenge of scale of the technology at the moment.


Disliking the fact that ICE uses ~3x more energy per mile vs BEVs does nothing to alter the fact that ICE uses ~3x more energy per mile... It's thermodynamics. The convenience issues are ~110% perceived. The question isn't CAN I drive 500 miles without stopping; It's SHOULD I drive 500 miles without stopping. The answer is no.. no you should not.

This debate started because biofuels were promoted not as an 'interim' solution but as a solution which is significantly at odds with reality. Beyond that most 'efficient alternatives' are actually delay tactics intended to maintain the status quo.

In terms of electrifying transportation if society aligns itself with a goal it's amazing how quickly things can change. A car is a much larger purchase than a phone... but most people get another car every ~10 years... imagine if everyone committed to EV or USED as their next vehicle. Rule 1 of holes if you find yourself in one is to stop digging. At the very minimum we should stop building new ICE.

 
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Matt-98AHU

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Many people simply don't want to even try to deal with the small added inconveniences of electric vehicle range. Sure, the people who genuinely need the added range and convenience of ICE are much smaller in number, but they're still out there.

There is a great deal about BEVs that make far too much economic sense to say no to. But again, once you take a look at the scope of the challenge of fully supplanting ALL internal combustion vehicles CURRENTLY IN USE, this is not something that can happen overnight. Even if they do a million sales per year of BEVs, how many hundreds of millions of conventional vehicles more are still in use? Then consider how much scaling up of charging infrastructure is needed to make this happen. It will take a couple decades before serious inroads are made in this respect. There are far too many people like myself who will almost certainly never buy a new car because that's our financial reality or just don't like having a car payment.

Not only that, but you have people like me living in a duplex with no driveway. Our cars get parked on the street a ways away from the house and you'd have to run a cord across a sidewalk to get to it. Not very convenient.

The convenience factor of being able to go over 600 miles between fill ups and only needing a couple minutes to refill to do it again is the biggest challenge battery electric has in going mainstream. PHEVs make more sense as a whole and will continue to make more sense for a long time to come than a pure BEV. At least with a PHEV you can do 90-98% of your average driving needs on pure electric power if you have a convenient place to charge, but still have the range extending internal combustion engine if absolutely necessary.

Me personally, I still view biofuels as a solid interim but still ultimately flawed as a lone solution to energy needs. It also has an even bigger challenge scaling up than electric, in my opinion. I applaud any attempts to reduce fuel usage, but for most, liquid fuels will remain a constant for a long time to come yet simply due to economics of many who don't buy a new car as well as that convenience factor. And until the battery technology has progressed beyond a certain range and more convenient charge times and infrastructure are in place, internal combustion will still reign as king for a number of years yet, some of which will be with electric assistance.
 

Matt-98AHU

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I am also not very comfortable with the absolute control Tesla specifically has exerted over their vehicles. It genuinely seems more like you're borrowing THEIR car rather than having genuine ownership to see and do as you please.

They have made it next to impossible to obtain repair information and they can completely disable your car at their whim. So if you wanted to ressurect the drivetrain and swap it into something else after a wreck, well, too bad. Their proprietary computers have shut it down.

I have a feeling there will always be a diesel in my fleet just to have that F everyone back up in which an electronic signal cannot disable my car and thus my mobility.

Really a shame, too, as I really like much of what Tesla has accomplished and wouldn't mind owning one at some point.
 

nwdiver

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But again, once you take a look at the scope of the challenge of fully supplanting ALL internal combustion vehicles CURRENTLY IN USE, this is not something that can happen overnight.
Obviously not 'overnight' but we COULD be at 100% of NEW vehicles are EV within ~5 years and >90% of the fleet is EV in <25 years. ~60% of new vehicles in Norway already have a plug. Every marathon begins with a step... we need to get step'n.

The issues with streetside charging is something that can and should be addressed. Identifying the problem is step 1. Addressing it is step 2. We need to move past step 1. There was no EV charging where I work... I petitioned to get charging stations for 3 years... now we have charging stations. We need to ID AND solve these issues.

It's often unappreciated how easy this can be. You don't need a lot of power. ~10A at 240v is nothing and will provide >100 miles of range overnight. MORE than enough.



As challenges go... this is really not that challenging.
 
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bizzle

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When you start out with a false based argument, it puts all the rest of your post in question. Fossil fuels have been the main propulsion source for may 100 years, or one century. Kind of hard to determine that their effect lingers for centuries.
The industrial revolution started around 300 years ago (and even that wasn't the beginning of civilizations using fossil fuels extensively). Your timeline estimates that we started using fossil fuels for propulsion in the 1920s, which should be obviously false to anyone, so I don't think you should be raising flags about false premises.
 

Tin Man

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Technical problems can usually be solved yes. Even economic problems sometimes.

But political and cultural challenges remain. As long as the public is lied to about "zero emissions" etc. and energy use is politicized, we will still be mired in poor execution.
 

nwdiver

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But political and cultural challenges remain. As long as the public is lied to about "zero emissions" etc. and energy use is politicized, we will still be mired in poor execution.
??? ~Several of the recent posts have been about wind and solar.... Tesla Motors is now just Tesla for that reason. Anyone that thinks they've been 'lied to' about zero emissions is simply oblivious...

The vast majority of our political and cultural problems are fed by pure ignorance.

- 'EVs use 3kWh/mile' no... it's >3 miles / kWh.
- 'Transmission losses are ~70%' no... It's ~12%
- 'It takes more energy to manufacture solar and wind than they generate' no... they produce >10x more over their life.
- 'Our infrastructure can't handle EVs' no... charging off-peak we could have 150M EVs in the US alone...

etc. etc. :(
 
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GoFaster

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Hurdles:

In my area (southern Ontario) ... A few years of building windmills now has rural residents putting up signs on their properties opposing any and all windmill construction. I know it is just nimby ... but there is public opposition to any and all green energy. (People are ignorant that electricity has to come from somewhere. "Select the type of power plant to put in your backyard: natural gas from fracking next to your property, heavy oil mined from next to your property, coal mined from next to your property (and you breathe what any of these put out), nuclear, wind, solar. Putting it somewhere else is not an option because it has to be in someone's backyard, might as well be yours. If your selection is none of the above, then permanently switch off the disconnect on your distribution panel ... no electricity for you." People don't get it.

A few years of excessive subsidies and lucrative government subsidies for building "green power" has led to high electricity rates ... and led to a government being voted in that shut it all down. It appears that you Americans have a similar but much bigger populist government that is doing similar things on a much bigger scale.

And that's on top of the need to build public charging stations (no longer happening), and encourage building private charging stations (no longer happening), and changing building codes to require all new construction to have ample vehicle charging infrastructure (sorta happening but nowhere near enough).

If the public doesn't want something (because they're uneducated and don't want to deal with reality) and vote in a populist government that cancels everything, then what?

One of my criteria for getting a daily driver EV is that all of the motorway service centers in Ontario have SAE/CCS Level 3 chargers. It's not happening.
 

wxman

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...This debate started because biofuels were promoted not as an 'interim' solution but as a solution which is significantly at odds with reality....
How so? I presented biofuels as PART of the solution to get off petroleum. I've demonstrated multiple times that there's more than enough WASTE biomass to produce biofuel that could replace all of the jet, diesel and home heating oil currently used in the U.S. That waste biomass will be produced whether it's turned into fuels or not.

Whether ICEVs on biofuels will be as successful as EVs on renewable electricity remains to be seen, and depends, I suppose, on whether EV costs will be equal to ICEV costs by 2025, or the Elgowainy study that EVs will be the most expensive on a full life-cycle basis of all vehicle technologies in 2030, even on 100% solar PV, turns out to be more realistic.
 

Matt-98AHU

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Some interesting reading: https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets...in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

Of course, this provides very little real data on the viability and marketability of these potential battery technologies. But, there absolutely could be a real game-changer in the mix there. And most of us won't really know what's better and able to scale up to massive production until we've seen the product on the market for some time and watch it prove itself.

And that's going to be your biggest hurdle. You're in a rush to push everyone into electric while it's still developing. Most of us want no part of that. We'll stick with what we know until something truly compelling, especially when it comes to the convenience factor, emerges.

As amazing vehicles that Tesla Model S, X and 3 are, they will eventually be dinosaurs in their own right pending a breakthrough in battery technology that far increases range and decreases charge time. With that in mind, I'll let someone else play beta tester until things seem to have stabilized better and there are affordable options on the used market that meet my criteria for what I want from an automobile. And whether or not you see it, that is the reality for *MOST* vehicle owners--buying used many years down the line and they aren't going to want to compromise the convenience factor.

As good and efficient as electric is, you still need to allow people to make their own choices with regards to what vehicles suit what they need. You wouldn't like the outcome of trying to force people's hands where it comes to market choices. I know I don't like being told what's better. I can make my own informed decision, thankyouverymuch.

Want people to buy electric en masse? Electric cars need to address the convenience and initial cost issue. They will get there, I have no doubt. But not for some time yet. But when they do, it will be an avalanche of people switching because they are far less to worry about maintenance wise, the cost per mile for the energy is far less and they can be damn fast and responsive in just about any daily use situation you throw at it. They have a LOT of positives going for them.

In the meantime, I'll hold onto my ancient diesels. And the new car market should be offering more PHEVs as a good interim, though I personally would like to see a few more diesel options as well.

And, as someone who prefers repairing my own vehicles, I cannot see myself owning a Tesla, as much as I like them, because of how stingy they are with repair information and the fact that they can decide to make my car inoperable at their own whim.
 

nwdiver

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How so? I presented biofuels as PART of the solution to get off petroleum. I've demonstrated multiple times that there's more than enough WASTE biomass to produce biofuel that could replace all of the jet, diesel and home heating oil currently used in the U.S.
VIABLE biomass feedstock to displace liquid fuels DOES NOT exist in sufficient quantities to make a significant impact... if it does... where is it? Why does <1% of our liquid fuels come biomass? The viability is so low that biofuels is as much a solution to our oil dependence as arriving to work early is a solution to a parking shortage. You're not solving the problem... you're shifting it.

The doubling time for biofuels over the last ~20 years is ~10 years. Compare that to a doubling time of wind and solar of <3 years. We're <20 years away with present trends of being 100% renewable for EVERYTHING IF we electrify transportation. >70 years + a few bioengineering miracles for biofuels and that's just for transporation. As a rule I don't favor roadmaps that include miracles...

Wind + Solar + Demand Response + BEVs is economic, effective and deployable TODAY. We no longer have time for dreams and miracles. We need deployment.


Hurdles:

In my area (southern Ontario) ... A few years of building windmills now has rural residents putting up signs on their properties opposing any and all windmill construction. I know it is just nimby ... but there is public opposition to any and all green energy. (People are ignorant that electricity has to come from somewhere. "Select the type of power plant to put in your backyard: natural gas from fracking next to your property, heavy oil mined from next to your property, coal mined from next to your property (and you breathe what any of these put out), nuclear, wind, solar. Putting it somewhere else is not an option because it has to be in someone's backyard, might as well be yours. If your selection is none of the above, then permanently switch off the disconnect on your distribution panel ... no electricity for you." People don't get it.

A few years of excessive subsidies and lucrative government subsidies for building "green power" has led to high electricity rates ... and led to a government being voted in that shut it all down. It appears that you Americans have a similar but much bigger populist government that is doing similar things on a much bigger scale.

And that's on top of the need to build public charging stations (no longer happening), and encourage building private charging stations (no longer happening), and changing building codes to require all new construction to have ample vehicle charging infrastructure (sorta happening but nowhere near enough).

If the public doesn't want something (because they're uneducated and don't want to deal with reality) and vote in a populist government that cancels everything, then what?

One of my criteria for getting a daily driver EV is that all of the motorway service centers in Ontario have SAE/CCS Level 3 chargers. It's not happening.
A lot of the Nimbyism is waning in regards to wind... at least here in NM. Our Public Regulation commission approved ~3GW of wind this year with minimal opposition. I also think larger turbines are going to help in addition to more offshore farms. GE recently announced a massive 12MW turbine the east coast OCS is large enough that turbines can be placed far enough from land that they're barely visible above the horizon. Larger turbines also rotate more slowly with helps protect wild life and make them slightly less off putting.

I suspect the charging issue will be solved much faster than most people expect but it is a bit of a chicken/egg problem. No one wants to install charging station that won't be used and no one wants to buy an EV when there are no charging stations. Once the OEMs accept reality and really start stepping up like Tesla has the infrastructure isn't difficult to build; Just look at how fast the Supercharger network grew.
 
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Tin Man

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Anyone that thinks they've been 'lied to' about zero emissions is simply oblivious...
I rest my case. I don't like to be lied to. EV's are NOT zero emission vehicles and won't be any time soon.

Only in a surreal post-modern world are we so bad at defining the truth. It just takes a little honesty to go a long way.

TM (not a zero emission entity but becoming an old fart)
 
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Tin Man

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Some interesting reading: https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets...in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

Of course, this provides very little real data on the viability and marketability of these potential battery technologies. But, there absolutely could be a real game-changer in the mix there. And most of us won't really know what's better and able to scale up to massive production until we've seen the product on the market for some time and watch it prove itself.

And that's going to be your biggest hurdle. You're in a rush to push everyone into electric while it's still developing. Most of us want no part of that. We'll stick with what we know until something truly compelling, especially when it comes to the convenience factor, emerges.

As amazing vehicles that Tesla Model S, X and 3 are, they will eventually be dinosaurs in their own right pending a breakthrough in battery technology that far increases range and decreases charge time. With that in mind, I'll let someone else play beta tester until things seem to have stabilized better and there are affordable options on the used market that meet my criteria for what I want from an automobile. And whether or not you see it, that is the reality for *MOST* vehicle owners--buying used many years down the line and they aren't going to want to compromise the convenience factor.

As good and efficient as electric is, you still need to allow people to make their own choices with regards to what vehicles suit what they need. You wouldn't like the outcome of trying to force people's hands where it comes to market choices. I know I don't like being told what's better. I can make my own informed decision, thankyouverymuch.

Want people to buy electric en masse? Electric cars need to address the convenience and initial cost issue. They will get there, I have no doubt. But not for some time yet. But when they do, it will be an avalanche of people switching because they are far less to worry about maintenance wise, the cost per mile for the energy is far less and they can be damn fast and responsive in just about any daily use situation you throw at it. They have a LOT of positives going for them.

In the meantime, I'll hold onto my ancient diesels. And the new car market should be offering more PHEVs as a good interim, though I personally would like to see a few more diesel options as well.

And, as someone who prefers repairing my own vehicles, I cannot see myself owning a Tesla, as much as I like them, because of how stingy they are with repair information and the fact that they can decide to make my car inoperable at their own whim.
Yes.

The only caveat I would say is that the cost of electricity, a commodity, is variable enough that a higher price is not out of the question, especially when government is complaining that EV's and hybrids don't pay their "fair share" of road taxes. SOMEONE will be paying for the infrastructure involving EV and autonomous vehicles and it shouldn't be the taxpayer. It should be the "free" market, albeit encouraged by proper regulations and incentives.

TM
 

nwdiver

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I rest my case. I don't like to be lied to. EV's are NOT zero emission vehicles and won't be any time soon.
If an EV that uses curtailed wind and solar isn't 'zero emissions'... what is? What's your interpretation of 'soon'? The US added enough wind and solar last year to power every EV ever built. Should we wait until the grid is 100% renewable to electrify transportation? It's a synergistic process. More EVs make 100% easier.
 

Tin Man

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If an EV that uses curtailed wind and solar isn't 'zero emissions'... what is? What's your interpretation of 'soon'? The US added enough wind and solar last year to power every EV ever built. Should we wait until the grid is 100% renewable to electrify transportation? It's a synergistic process. More EVs make 100% easier.
First we had LEV's. Then we came up with ULEV's (ultra low emissions vehicles). Now we should describe pure electrics SULEV's (Super ULEV's) since there definitely are some emissions from creating the electricity but of course at a lower rate.

I'm a reviewer for a national medical journal and I've casually reviewed one of the papers linking diesel to death and they are very loose with data. They seem to ignore the different emissions found between cities and rural areas, blaming only diesel emissions for the cause. They may be surprised that living near an asphalt busy road also involves tire and asphalt related particulates as well as the potential for more indoor pollution in city dwellings.

So no, electric vehicles are not "zero" emissions. If we can't even get our terminology right to reflect what we already know about a subject, how can we ever expect to convince those not so inclined to do so?

TM

"Ask yourself why you believe what you do. And beware those who would justify their means solely by the ends they achieve."
-- Jon Miltimore
 
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nwdiver

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So no, electric vehicles are not "zero" emissions. If we can't even get our terminology right to reflect what we already know about a subject, how can we ever expect to convince those not so inclined to do so?
.... road dust? Really?

.... no one is being lied to.... no one is confused.... 'zero emissions' is only 'controversial' with people seeking to exploit semantics to engage in an absurd debate. Good day sir.

If you wanna talk lies.....

 

nwdiver

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"...the average 1,000 megawatt power plant using clean-burning natural gas emits about as much pollution as the nearly 500,000 cheating VW diesels across the U.S."

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...est-environmental-damage-2016apr20-story.html
Glad you brought that up since no one has mentioned how we're rapidly installing more solar and wind..........

Also context...

A 1GW power plant consumes ~17TWh/yr of fuel vs 5.5TWh consumed from 500,000 cars..... so the power plant is doing ~3x more work.... I would HOPE the cars are polluting less....

Fun Fact: A 1,000MW power plant produces enough energy for 2.5M EVs driving 12k miles per year...
 
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turbobrick240

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Glad you brought that up since no one has mentioned how we're rapidly installing more solar and wind..........

Also context...

A 1GW power plant consumes ~17TWh/yr of fuel vs 5.5TWh consumed from 500,000 cars..... so the power plant is doing ~3x more work.... I would HOPE the cars are polluting less....

Fun Fact: A 1,000MW power plant produces enough energy for 2.5M EVs driving 12k miles per year...
Thanks for doing the math. It sure sounded like an unbalanced comparison to me.
 

tikal

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Certainly that was a VW lie both legally and morally (in my view).

Now compare that to millions of 'clean gasoline' SUVs and trucks that are on the roads daily struggling to achieve in the 20's MPG ...

I predict North America drivers will be much slower to embrace EVs primarily to the attraction to bigger SUVs, trucks and just bigger vehicles all together.

Japan, South Korea, Western Europe and even China will be ahead of us in terms of vehicle electrification on a per capita basis.

That's my prediction.

If you wanna talk lies.....

 
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