Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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nwdiver

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As mentioned earlier the "EV market" is ~1% of all vehicles sold. If Tesla holds 40% of that market, does that qualify as "significant" overall?
Unlike EVs made by the Legacy autos Tesla competes very well in the other 99% of the market too. No reason Tesla can't be 40% of 100%... not 40% of 1%.

I think they'll hold a significant niche in the EV market for many years.
Do you mean the VEHICLE market? ;)

This is what Tesla Employees see everyday they go to work... Teslas objective is not to just compete with other EVs...

 
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aja8888

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Comparing Elon's next electric car to the truly amazing, and (actually) revolutionary iPhone is, honestly, an insult to Apple & the memory of Steve Jobs.
Another primary difference between the Apple iPhone and Tesla is that Apple's product is highly profitable vs. Tesla's money loser(s).

There are more global differences, but that is enough to mention right there.
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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Will Tesla sell 77,000 cars this year:confused:

.... there is a negative PE ratio:eek:

.... Big time negative


.... I was shocked to read how small wages they pay workers
 

nwdiver

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It'll be interesting to see what effect the Model 3 has in a few years when it scales. Tesla doesn't compete with EVs. It competes with ICE.

 

turbobrick240

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Not sure where you're going with the strawman statements. :confused:

Hey now. My strawman may have a position available mopping the decks of his luxury yacht. That is if your strawman tires of hunting for part time work as a scarecrow. :D

Your perception of Tesla is getting the better of you.

Your misperception of Tesla has got the better of you


As mentioned earlier the "EV market" is ~1% of all vehicles sold. If Tesla holds 40% of that market, does that qualify as "significant" overall? Tesla may indeed grow to be a large fish in a very small pond.

The model T made up a small percentage of personal transport at its introduction as well.

Steve Jobs & Apple invented products that really did change the world. Elon Musk talks a good game but Tesla is no Apple. It's important to separate the wheat from the chaff. It's nice that Elon wants to go to Mars, and muses about an underground highway tunnel system under LA - but the reality is that Tesla is in the business of selling sells cars, solar panels, and batteries. I'm not making this up...it's all right there in a Tesla investor's release. Do yourself a favor. Read it.

Musk will have a far larger impact on society than Jobs- orders of magnitude larger.

Elon Musk & Tesla didn't invent the electric motor, and lithium ion batteries were around for decades before the first Tesla Roadster was built. Comparing Elon's next electric car to the truly amazing, and (actually) revolutionary iPhone is, honestly, an insult to Apple & the memory of Steve Jobs.
Henry Ford didn't invent the internal combustion engine or gasoline either. I think the memory of Steve Jobs will understand. ;)
 
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oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
It'll be interesting to see what effect the Model 3 has in a few years when it scales. Tesla doesn't compete with EVs. It competes with ICE.

So you cherry pick all the models that DEcreased in that time. What about the ones that INcreased? Big sedans are not big sellers, and have been in decline for quite a while, the few that are still left. SUVs? Lexus GX and LX models' sales went UP. As did the GS. RX sales dipped, then came back up plus some.

US sales totals are not in for 2017 yet, but for 2016 the top 25 are motivated by ICEs (heck, the Jetta is #16!). The Prius was in there, but along with many of the models, was DOWN from the year before. And these are "cars". The trucks easily, handily, trump those sales. The Ford F-series alone sold more than DOUBLE the top selling car model (the Camry).
 

nwdiver

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So you cherry pick all the models that DEcreased in that time. What about the ones that INcreased? Big sedans are not big sellers, and have been in decline for quite a while, the few that are still left. SUVs? Lexus GX and LX models' sales went UP. As did the GS. RX sales dipped, then came back up plus some.
US sales totals are not in for 2017 yet, but for 2016 the top 25 are motivated by ICEs (heck, the Jetta is #16!). The Prius was in there, but along with many of the models, was DOWN from the year before. And these are "cars". The trucks easily, handily, trump those sales. The Ford F-series alone sold more than DOUBLE the top selling car model (the Camry).
It's the best apples-apples comparison. This is the 'Large luxury' segment. People shopping for a Camry are unlikely to consider a $80k S-Class sedan. Someone shopping for an Audi A8 might.

I predict we'll see a similar effect on the Camry in 2020 since the Model 3 will be a direct competitor there.

The point is that the notion Tesla is competing for market share in 1% of the market is absurd. When you have a national fast charging network and >200 miles of range you're competing against ALL cars in the respective class not just 'EVs'.
 
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VeeDubTDI

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It's the best apples-apples comparison. This is the 'Large luxury' segment. People shopping for a Camry are unlikely to consider a $80k S-Class sedan. Someone shopping for an Audi A8 might.

I predict we'll see a similar effect on the Camry in 2020 since the Model 3 will be a direct competitor there.

The point is that the notion Tesla is competing for market share in 1% of the market is absurd. When you have a national fast charging network and >200 miles of range you're competing against ALL cars in the respective class not just 'EVs'.
I agree.
 

GoFaster

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Unlike EVs made by the Legacy autos Tesla competes very well in the other 99% of the market too. No reason Tesla can't be 40% of 100%... not 40% of 1%.
That's a stretch. Thus far, Tesla is only competing with the high-end price range of the market (and doing quite well at it). The Model 3 price-wise will still be in the upper range of the market. Yeah, they advertise US$35k, but you can't buy and get one at that price ... and it remains to be seen if they can be profitable at that price level. I'm going to guess that the average transaction price will be in the US$50k range, which is still in the near-luxury segment.

They are not competitive with mass-market sedans (Toyota Camry etc). Yeah, you can load up a Camry to be in the same price range as a base Model 3 that you can't get yet, but apples to apples ... they're not in that market segment. They are certainly not competitive in compact sedans (e.g. Honda Civic - which is perenially the best selling car in Canada). They are not competitive in CUV/SUV except at the very high end of the market (Model X). The mass-market segment (Chevrolet Equinox, Ford Escape, etc) ... nope. Compact (Buick Encore, Toyota RAV4, Honda CRV) ... nope. Pickup trucks ... nope! Vans ... nope!

By no means am I saying they never will be ... but as of right now, they're not, and I don't see the product coming down the pipeline that will change that before a number of other players get there first, including GM and VW and Mercedes-Benz and Nissan and Hyundai and Ford ... all of whom have long-range EV products expected on the market in the next year or two, and in segments not limited to sedans with mail-slot trunk openings.

There is no question that Tesla has the head-start on quick-charging infrastructure and that the mainstream auto industry missed the boat on this, not wanting to be involved whereas in the consumer's mind, the charging infrastructure has to go hand in hand with the vehicles.
 

nwdiver

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That's a stretch. Thus far, Tesla is only competing with the high-end price range of the market (and doing quite well at it). The Model 3 price-wise will still be in the upper range of the market. Yeah, they advertise US$35k, but you can't buy and get one at that price ... and it remains to be seen if they can be profitable at that price level. I'm going to guess that the average transaction price will be in the US$50k range, which is still in the near-luxury segment.
I agree that Tesla has a way to go before it's taking significant market share from a $20k car. My point is that the market for a Model 3 type car is significantly larger than 1%... The average cost of a new car in the US is ~$33k. EVs are already at parity with ICE over a 5 year cost of ownership. As battery prices fall they should be at parity from day 1 by 2025. (Obviously Tesla will need a Truck to compete with Trucks etc...)

Time will tell whether the other manufactures will be able to change course quickly enough without losing significant market share. I suspect the idea that EVs are isolated to ~1% of the auto market goes beyond this thread and to some of the board rooms of companies like Ford, VW and GM.... History is littered with companies trampled by progress. Kodak invented the digital camera then kept making film for the next 30 years.
 
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Oilerlord

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Musk will have a far larger impact on society than Jobs- orders of magnitude larger.
Wow, that's quite a claim - given dozens of other companies already sell solar panels, battery storage systems, and electric cars.

Is this about Musk's fascination about going to Mars? I'm not sure I follow the "impact on society" you're referring to. Please explain.
 

turbobrick240

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Wow, that's quite a claim - given dozens of other companies already sell solar panels, battery storage systems, and electric cars.
Is this about Musk's fascination about going to Mars? I'm not sure I follow the "impact on society" you're referring to. Please explain.

Call me a prophet, if you like. I won't go into too much detail, but Musk's accomplishments are/will be more comparable to those of Jobs, Wozniak, Gates, and von Braun combined than those of Jobs alone.
 

aja8888

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Call me a prophet, if you like. I won't go into too much detail, but Musk's accomplishments are/will be more comparable to those of Jobs, Wozniak, Gates, and von Braun combined than those of Jobs alone.
With all his personal life troubles, i.e. wives, divorces, 5 kids, more girlfriends, marrying and divorcing the same woman twice, etc, it's amazing he can hold his focus on anything very long. I'll bet a lot of people would like for him to be at the wheel of that car he wants to send to Mars.:D
 

turbobrick240

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With all his personal life troubles, i.e. wives, divorces, 5 kids, more girlfriends, marrying and divorcing the same woman twice, etc, it's amazing he can hold his focus on anything very long. I'll bet a lot of people would like for him to be at the wheel of that car he wants to send to Mars.:D

Hey, both Einstein and Darwin married first cousins. And Einstein was also a divorcee. Life is messy.

You're absolutely right about many people wishing he were going into deep space himself. Including foreign (and some domestic) aerospace industries, and anyone holding a short position on Tesla.
 

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Call me a prophet, if you like. I won't go into too much detail, but Musk's accomplishments are/will be more comparable to those of Jobs, Wozniak, Gates, and von Braun combined than those of Jobs alone.
Interesting. I'm not calling you a prophet, and I'm sure as hell not going to call Musk a messiah.

I view Musk as the CEO of a company that sells cars, solar panels, and battery storage systems - again like dozens of CEOs from other companies that sell the same products he does. I just think he does it with a lot more flair than everyone else.

I merely wanted you to explain how (you believe) Musk is going to have 100X the impact on society that Steve Jobs did. You don't even have to go into detail - just a few of the main talking points will do.

It seems to circle back to Oilhammer's off-the-cuff comparison of Musk/Tesla with LRH / Scientology. What at first seemed to be such a ridiculous comparison seems so oddly aligned in their ideology.

Oilhammer, you broke my brain with that one. Well done, sir!
 

turbobrick240

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I merely wanted you to explain how (you believe) Musk is going to have 100X the impact on society that Steve Jobs did. You don't even have to go into detail - just a few of the main talking points will do.
It seems to circle back to Oilhammer's off-the-cuff comparison of Musk/Tesla with LRH / Scientology. What at first seemed to be such a ridiculous comparison seems so oddly aligned in their ideology.
Oilhammer, you broke my brain with that one. Well done, sir!
I'll leave that to your imagination. I already mentioned that I have been indoctrinated into the cult of Elon. :D

How about that CRS launch today? Pretty cool stuff- first time a reused booster and dragon capsule have been launched together. Exciting times we live in.
 

nwdiver

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I merely wanted you to explain how (you believe) Musk is going to have 100X the impact on society that Steve Jobs did.
Jobs gave us cell phones with fewer buttons. Musk is accelerating the transition away from a future with;Quoting from the US DOD 4th quadrennial review...

'sea levels are rising, average global temperatures are increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating. These changes, coupled with other global dynamics, including growing, urbanizing, more affluent populations, and substantial economic growth in India, China, Brazil, and other nations, will devastate homes, land, and infrastructure. Climate change may exacerbate water scarcity and lead to sharp increases in food costs. The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.'
 

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I'll leave that to your imagination. I already mentioned that I have been indoctrinated into the cult of Elon. :D
How about that CRS launch today? Pretty cool stuff- first time a reused booster and dragon capsule have been launched together. Exciting times we live in.
Have you tried the Kool-Aid? It's strawberry! ;)
 

turbobrick240

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The biggest change/improvement for most people of the 20th century was what?

Think about it and post your answers.

What do you think a bunch of professional engineers would vote as #1?
Electricity? Telephone? Radio? Automobile? Reinforced concrete? Television? Germ theory? Flush toilets/indoor plumbing? 8-track player?
My gut says engineers would like reinforced concrete.
 
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nicklockard

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The Tesla model 3 was never targeted to compete against sub $30K cars. Mr. Musk made it clear from the start they are going after the BMW 3-series demographic.
 

john.jackson9213

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Electricity? Telephone? Radio? Automobile? Reinforced concrete? Television? Germ theory? Flush toilets/indoor plumbing? 8-track player?
My gut says engineers would like reinforced concrete.

You hit very, very close to the winner. Congratulations!! At least 5 of the top 20 in that list.

http://greatachievements.org/


My point here is that no ONE person/invention was the greatest. Rather it is all an evolution of ideas by many, many contributors. Jobs, Musk, etc many go down with Edison, Westinghouse, and Einstein. But only a long time will tell.

I wonder who in 1500 ever thought Leonardo da Vinci would be remembered as one of the greatest minds on his time?
 

nwdiver

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You hit very, very close to the winner. Congratulations!! At least 5 of the top 20 in that list.

http://greatachievements.org/


My point here is that no ONE person/invention was the greatest. Rather it is all an evolution of ideas by many, many contributors. Jobs, Musk, etc many go down with Edison, Westinghouse, and Einstein. But only a long time will tell.

I wonder who in 1500 ever thought Leonardo da Vinci would be remembered as one of the greatest minds on his time?
Most Generations have a select few people that accelerate or shift progress. We probably would have electrified the country without Tesla, Westinghouse and Edison but it likely would have occurred years or decades later.

We would likely shift to EVs eventually but Musk probably accelerated that transition by at least 10 years. Every EV except the LEAF was a reaction to Tesla. I only wish we'd had a visionary like Elon working with GM or Toyota in the 90s. The EV1 and RAV4 should have been followed by other EV models. GM cost us >10 years of EV development.
 

turbocharged798

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Most Generations have a select few people that accelerate or shift progress. We probably would have electrified the country without Tesla, Westinghouse and Edison but it likely would have occurred years or decades later.

We would likely shift to EVs eventually but Musk probably accelerated that transition by at least 10 years. Every EV except the LEAF was a reaction to Tesla. I only wish we'd had a visionary like Elon working with GM or Toyota in the 90s. The EV1 and RAV4 should have been followed by other EV models. GM cost us >10 years of EV development.
GM ran out of taxpayer money years ago, that's the difference.
 

El Dobro

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From GM in 2006.


"Lastly, because the movie made some harsh criticisms of GM for discontinuing the EV1, let me set the record straight:

GM spent more than $1 billion developing the EV1 including significant sums on marketing and incentives to develop a mass market for it.
Only 800 vehicles were leased during a four-year period.
No other major automotive manufacturer is producing a pure electric vehicle for use on public roads and highways.
A waiting list of 5,000 only generated 50 people willing to follow through to a lease.

Because of low demand for the EV1, parts suppliers quit making replacement parts making future repair and safety of the vehicles difficult to nearly impossible. Could GM have handled its decision to say "no" to offers to buy EV1s upon natural lease expirations better than it did? Sure. In some ways, I personally regret that we could not find a way for the EV1 lessees to keep their cars. We did what we felt was right in discontinuing a vehicle that we could no longer guarantee could be operated safely over the long term or that we would be able to repair."
 

Oilerlord

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I'll leave that to your imagination. I already mentioned that I have been indoctrinated into the cult of Elon. :D
You make VERY bold claims that Musk will not only go down in history alongside some of the greatest minds of all time, he'll have "orders of magnitude" more impact than any one of them . When asked to back it up - you can't.

Similarly, when asked to explain unbelievable claims like the one above, the one & only guy on my ignore list usually would resort to the smug "I know something you don't know" BS.

We may not always agree with each other, but I still respect your point of view. Please don't be that guy. You're better than that.
 

Oilerlord

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Only responding to this because someone else quoted it:

"Every EV except the LEAF was a reaction to Tesla."

Not even close.

Every EV except the Leaf was a reaction to the EPA and government regulations. Automakers were required to comply with those regulations, so they could continue the profitable business of selling trucks and SUV's. Tesla had nothing to do with it.
 

nwdiver

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Every EV except the Leaf was a reaction to the EPA and government regulations. Automakers were required to comply with those regulations, so they could continue the profitable business of selling trucks and SUV's. Tesla had nothing to do with it.
Fair enough. I'll be more specific. Every NON-COMPLIANCE EV. Every EV offered outside CA. The Volt and Bolt would not exist if not from the roadster.

Only Nissan showed interest in EVs. Toyota and VW showed open contempt for them on several occasions.

GM ran out of taxpayer money years ago, that's the difference.
That could have been avoided if they kept developing the EV1. GMs financial troubles were exacerbated by a sales drop of low mpg cars when the price of oil surged.
 
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turbobrick240

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You make VERY bold claims that Musk will not only go down in history alongside some of the greatest minds of all time, he'll have "orders of magnitude" more impact than any one of them . When asked to back it up - you can't.
Similarly, when asked to explain unbelievable claims like the one above, the one & only guy on my ignore list usually would resort to the smug "I know something you don't know" BS.
We may not always agree with each other, but I still respect your point of view. Please don't be that guy. You're better than that.
Musk is working very hard to prevent humanity from destroying itself. He has revolutionized the space industry, and is revolutionizing the auto industry. Given some time and perspective, I think you'll come to appreciate his influence on society.

The hoi polloi(scientology double entendre ;) ) are allowed their rock stars, reality tv celebrities, Michael Jordan and Derek Jeter admiration societies. I see nothing wrong with brainy nerds having their own "rock stars".

Calling Musk fans a cult really isn't all that clever or original. Sure, some may take the hero worship a bit too far- but the guy is legitimately changing the world. If it is cult, I'd sooner join it than the flat earther cult or the conspiracy theory flavor-of-the-month club.
 
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