Report: The U.S. will see a lot of diesel models in 2013-2014

Report: The U.S. will see a lot of diesel models in 2013-2014

If you offer it, they will buy it. That’s pretty much the case with diesel vehicles in the United States and an example set forth by the Volkswagen Golf TDI and the Volkswagen Jetta TDI. According to Jeff Breneman, executive director of the U.S. Coalition for Advanced Diesel Cars (which represent suppliers to diesel automakers), the number of drivers buying diesels will increase as automakers start adding more diesel options to their lineup.

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I am hopeful this type of competition will lead VWoA to bring a super-sipper diesel to NA.

Believe it when I see them on dealer lots.

Three Cylinder Tdi ......... enough said

You BET I'll believe it when I see it. Like a Polo TDI or equal.

thebigarniedog said:

Three Cylinder Tdi ......... enough said

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That would get me to go all diesel. No thingies all over the dash & steering wheel, no movie camera on back bumper, no hole in roof, just a well built simplistic fuel squeezing car, maybe a 5 or 6m- decent safety measures and good stability features. How about only gauges that would be useful- Call me a dreamer.

They better get some Decent Diesel fuel before that happens......

CAFE with real easily achievable targets that increase yearly works. Look at what was sold in the US in 1985-1986 the last years that it was in real effect.

The coming CAFE rules with yearly increases aimed for that mid 50s mpg mark will work by forcing auto makers to bring more diesel power here to bring their low mpg fleets into compliance. For me we can't have the new CAFE rules come into effect soon enough because of the positive enfluence they will have on our fleet CAFE.

And the real plus of having CAFE come into effect sooner than later is the more auto makers continue to sell their low mpg gas powered models the more of these diesel model will have to be sold to make up for them. Filling our roads up sooner than later up with high mpg diesels............Giving us all more diesel powered options..........

So if millions of diesels hit the roads, won't that put price pressure on diesel fuel? Then gas wil be cheap and I can buy an Sti and pay $1.90 a gallon to have fun

RabbitGTI said:

So if millions of diesels hit the roads, won't that put price pressure on diesel fuel? Then gas wil be cheap and I can buy an Sti and pay $1.90 a gallon to have fun

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No every station will have diesel putting price pressure on it from all the stations having to compete for my bussiness..........

Except there's a limited supply of diesel, and the US exports what it has to Europe as it is.

So, more demand on that supply will create upward price pressure. The downward force of competition won't come close to the upward force of lack of supply with high demand.

bhtooefr said:

So, more demand on that supply will create upward price pressure. The downward force of competition won't come close to the upward force of lack of supply with high demand.

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This is just plain misstated. Look at high amount of our diesel fuel production in the US that goes to trucks, buses, trains, boats, generators, and what have you. Two or three times the present number of diesel passenger cars on the road would be little more than rounding error.

bhtooefr said:

Except there's a limited supply of diesel, and the US exports what it has to Europe as it is.

So, more demand on that supply will create upward price pressure. The downward force of competition won't come close to the upward force of lack of supply with high demand.

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Again, not quite reality. Since WW2 we have taken crude and cracked it to produce more gasoline by choice. So today we make more gas than diesel by choice, not becasue we have to. With a small tweek of how we refine crude the % of what type of fuel comes out could be shifted to favor diesel production again.....

This could be done in as short as tomorrow at the newest refinerys in the US, others it could take a refit of a few months for the switch. If we have a real energy policy that tells refiners this is what we need as far as diesel production it could be ready for coming models before they hit the road.

And instead of making more crude, we should be looking at retooling our farming solutions to meet that new demand with renewable diesel sources. Algae, hemp, soy if you must... hydroponic growing solutions... switching to another engine and fuel source can be easily done with the right steps taken.

But, we won't do that. We'll say the formula can't be changed to open up drilling off all the coasts, ruining what little tourism we have left, etc.

Oh sorry my skepticism about responsible corporations or governments is showing.

Except we can't allow drilling off the coasts because we don't have responsible corporations or governments for that, either.

Dooglas said:

This is just plain misstated. Look at high amount of our diesel fuel production in the US that goes to trucks, buses, trains, boats, generators, and what have you. Two or three times the present number of diesel passenger cars on the road would be little more than rounding error.

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What about the fact that diesel fuel already did skyrocket recently?

When I bought my Golf in 2003, diesel was 49 cents per liter and gas was about 91. Now diesel is about $1.35 and so is gas.

Diesel used to be nearly half the price, now it is the same, relative to gasoline.

So, this increase that some are predicting if diesel cars catch on, already happened. Why wouldn't this trend continue if more and more people start driving diesel cars?

I see it kinda like this. 10% switch to diesel, they have more money to spend on goods and services -- thus stimulating the economy. Business won't let diesel get too high (don't even start on the it's a free market, companies will switch to trains which are better than diesel trucks... there's always a method).

I had this nice long thing done up using 2003 driver figures that showed a savings of 15,8894,192 gallons of gas every week based on a 350mi average and 15.6 gallons consumed in the gas vehicle (pretty fair, I'd say... that's based on my volvo) vs an ALH automatic TDI's economy (550/15.4 vented) and the $1.13 more per fill up netting 200 miles more driven distance... based on two fill ups/week for the gas vehicle (this is normal for the Carolinas -- we average 24k/year...data just came out to back that up, I knew the 12k a year line was bull).

I'd think a substantial savings per week of gasoline would have an effect on the price, as less is demanded. Now industry could go we're not changing production methods and keep diesel higher and case gas to drop really low... but who really knows. In the end, until a gas vehicle can surpass the overall efficency (for me that's range and life span and upkeep combined) of a VW TDI then it's not going to matter.

We also discounted the role renewable diesel fuels have to play in this. Isn't there an upcoming B20 mandate?

I doubt the diesels will really catch on with the general public, unfortunately. The fuel price is 10% higher than gas, and the up front cost is significantly more for the diesel option - about $6K more for a Jetta TDI versus Jetta S for example, and you only pick up 10 mpg according to the EPA ratings - 33mpg (Jetta S) to 42mpg (TDI). In reality it may be more, but the EPA numbers are what people look at. It's a long payback, unless you put a ton of miles on, and can use a sedan. You can buy a lot of gas for the 6K price difference. So economically it won't work for probably the vast majority. Plus there is the stigma of "stinky diesels" which although it is no longer true for the TDIs, it is a perception of the general public that all diesels smell like busses or tractor trailers. Meanwhile, I'll do my best to convince the general public that they are wrong!

That goes both ways, though - some people do want the feature level of a TDI, and to get the same feature level in a gasser, you're getting a 2.5 (slightly worse fuel economy than the 2.0 S), and you're paying only $1-3k less than the TDI, not $6k.

Biz said:

I doubt the diesels will really catch on with the general public, unfortunately. The fuel price is 10% higher than gas, and the up front cost is significantly more for the diesel option - about $6K more for a Jetta TDI versus Jetta S for example, and you only pick up 10 mpg according to the EPA ratings - 33mpg (Jetta S) to 42mpg (TDI). In reality it may be more, but the EPA numbers are what people look at. It's a long payback, unless you put a ton of miles on, and can use a sedan. You can buy a lot of gas for the 6K price difference. So economically it won't work for probably the vast majority. Plus there is the stigma of "stinky diesels" which although it is no longer true for the TDIs, it is a perception of the general public that all diesels smell like busses or tractor trailers. Meanwhile, I'll do my best to convince the general public that they are wrong!

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BINGO. Consumers will not change at the same pace as CAFE standards. And speaking of CAFE, current guidelines are too aggressive and will drive-up costs for manufacturers AND consumers. Page # 74,079,434,950,705 in gummit's book of Unintended Consequences.

Biz said:

I doubt the diesels will really catch on with the general public, unfortunately. The fuel price is 10% higher than gas, and the up front cost is significantly more for the diesel option - about $6K more for a Jetta TDI versus Jetta S for example, and you only pick up 10 mpg according to the EPA ratings - 33mpg (Jetta S) to 42mpg (TDI). In reality it may be more, but the EPA numbers are what people look at.

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++ on this. A friend of mine totaled his car and wanted a Passat. I've always raved about the TDI, so he test drove it and liked it. But he said there was an extra $2k premium for the tdi variant, so he went with the gasser instead.

Sappington said:

++ on this. A friend of mine totaled his car and wanted a Passat. I've always raved about the TDI, so he test drove it and liked it. But he said there was an extra $2k premium for the tdi variant, so he went with the gasser instead.

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Well that was foolish. If you're already blowing money on an expensive car and you can get a diesel engine for $2000, get it!

From a cost standpoint, if what you need is a Honda Fit for $18000, and to get a diesel you'd have to step up to something much more expensive like a diesel Jetta for $24000, then diesel makes no sense. The break-even point on fuel savings (if any) is many years away, maybe decades.

If you're already buying an expensive car anyway, then the diesel payback is going to be maybe three years, which is worth it. In other words, if it costs $2000 for the diesel, but you save $700 per year in fuel, get the diesel!

Mike_04GolfTDI said:

What about the fact that diesel fuel already did skyrocket recently?
When I bought my Golf in 2003, diesel was 49 cents per liter and gas was about 91. Now diesel is about $1.35 and so is gas.

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The short answer is no, this increase in the price of diesel fuel - and gasoline - had nothing to do with the popularity - or lack of popularity - of diesel cars.

Don't make the mistake of assuming the average buyer employs logic and basic math in their buying decisions. The most common response I get to owning a diesel is, "Isn't gasoline cheaper?" And most folks have no clue what their average MPGs are per tank or tank range for that matter.

If there all these problems before people buy diesels how do you explain so many a6 tdi's?

Dooglas said:

The short answer is no, this increase in the price of diesel fuel - and gasoline - had nothing to do with the popularity - or lack of popularity - of diesel cars.

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Yeah, I know. It's because I bought a diesel.

Every time I think I've found a way to save money, something changes to eliminate the advantage. Every time.

The best reason I can find for the increase in diesel prices here in the US is that the demand world wide has prompted the refiners here to export some/much of their diesel production. Check out this article.

It goes like this: In the week ended September 16th, the US exported more refined products than it imported. Year-over-year, the US is now exporting 714,000 barrels/day more refined products than it is importing.

http://www.investmentu.com/2011/September/diesel-fuel-export-record-highs.html

Mike_04GolfTDI said:

What about the fact that diesel fuel already did skyrocket recently?

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RUG is $3.01 in my town and diesel is $3.79.

There are at least two strong points that have not been addressed:
Fuel exports are up due to the weaker dollar.
New plants have been built to strip the sulfur out of the diesel but old pants have not been retrofit. The roi has not been there to make the retrofit worth doing. If there is more domestic demand for diesel, then the situation will be changed. This will probably mean that older plants will be retrofit and the supply of diesel for the North American market will increase.

We are planning to buy a new car in 2013. I honestly don't care about diesel fuel price relative to gasohol price or how much more a diesel model costs vs. the gasser version. Hopefully by then VW has got their HPFP SNAFU sorted and/or another manufacturer has a good non-luxury level offering. We will buy the quality diesel car whether it be a VW, silly smilin' Mazda, or Govt. Motors product. If status quo remains unchanged it'll likely be a gasser Ford or Korean model.