The Future of the TDI?

JCG57 said:

I lucked into a modest but appreciated ROI on a 5-Series that I bought new in Switzerland, drove for over two years, then sold and because the Swiss Franc appreciated so much against the dollar over that period I got several hundred more USD than the car initially cost me. And then there are those TDI flips, so don't try to tell us we can't generate ROI on a car, we know better!

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The ROI was on currency speculation, not the car.

Are there cases where you can make money on a car purchase, use, and sale? Sure. Used car dealers do it all the time. One example not mentioned here (yet) is people who bought "dirty" diesels and sold them back to VW at a profit. But these examples are the exception, not the rule. The cost of owning and using a car usually far exceeds the return you'll get when selling. You can minimize the loss in choosing what and when to purchase and how much you spend on repairs and maintenance. But in most cases it'll still be a net expense.

Driving costs money. Just the way it is.

JCG57 said:

I lucked into a modest but appreciated ROI on a 5-Series that I bought new in Switzerland, drove for over two years, then sold and because the Swiss Franc appreciated so much against the dollar over that period I got several hundred more USD than the car initially cost me. And then there are those TDI flips, so don't try to tell us we can't generate ROI on a car, we know better!

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Yes, "lucked into".

And the TDI Emissions Buyback is like winning the Lottery. Within a few hundred dollars, I'm getting back in the BB what I paid for the car in April 2013.

But these are anomalies. 99.99% of the time you will not make money owning a car. 99.99% of the time they are a depreciating asset which has carrying costs.

DieselMann99 said:

Yes, "lucked into".

And the TDI Emissions Buyback is like winning the Lottery. Within a few hundred dollars, I'm getting back in the BB what I paid for the car in April 2013.

But these are anomalies. 99.99% of the time you will not make money owning a car. 99.99% of the time they are a depreciating asset which has carrying costs.

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Anomalies represent the very best investment opportunities, on a risk/reward basis, whether long-term non-callable debt instruments in the early 80's, dot.com stocks in the late 90's, Cali real estate in the mid 00's or FAANG stocks and V-Dub diesels in the last couple years. Of all those, the car opportunity represented the least risky bet if you did your homework and purchased wisely.

Only if you purchased after the scandal broke and was known. If you bought before that it was just a car purchase. If you bought after the scandal was revealed, then yes people were buying them for investment purposes. The poster (h.ubk) who started this "investment" talk lists their car as a 1997 Jetta. It isn't part of the dieselgate scandal anomaly. That cars asset value is maybe $500 to $1200. It may be saving money over buying something new, but it isn't appreciating or generating any income. Kind of like buying a stock in a company that then plummets in value to near bankruptcy. It isn't worth jack but costs you nothing to just hold onto it. Your money is already gone and it will cost you more to get back into the market. I would bet there are more people that have lost money on vehicles than in the stock market or any traditional investment for that matter.

Lightflyer1 said:

The poster (h.ubk) who started this "investment" talk lists their car as a 1997 Jetta. It isn't part of the dieselgate scandal anomaly. That cars asset value is maybe $500 to $1200. It may be saving money over buying something new, but it isn't appreciating or generating any income.

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EGGS-actly.

The original post was about a pre-scandal VW, but in the course of the thread we have seen absolute statements like this one from DieselMann99 which, as I and others have shown, is completely wrong:
But to talk about a car delivering ROI in the same way as an investment portfolio or rental property delivers ROI is preposterous.
Car purchases that generate a positive return are no doubt relatively rare, but are not impossible to achieve for the informed investor with an open mind.

JCG57 said:

The original post was about a pre-scandal VW, but in the course of the thread we have seen absolute statements like this one from DieselMann99 which, as I and others have shown, is completely wrong:
But to talk about a car delivering ROI in the same way as an investment portfolio or rental property delivers ROI is preposterous.
Car purchases that generate a positive return are no doubt relatively rare, but are not impossible to achieve for the informed investor with an open mind.

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"Completely wrong"?? Ok, if you say so.

So if it's "completely wrong", I suppose then the total opposite would be completely right:

"A car delivers ROI in the same way as an investment portfolio or rental property delivers ROI".

Do you really wanna make that argument?

and at some point whether through an accident, rust, or major breakdown, h.ubk will have to buy another car, assuming (s)he doesn't die first. Also in the scenario set up it doesn't matter whether a new or used car is bought. If you buy anything it costs more than keeping what you have and driving it.

I don't even count my antique cars as investments and they do generate income from movies, photo shoots, weddings and such.

Back to the op. I've owned my JSW for 8 years and was planning on a minimum of 10 when I bought it. So I have two years left to then determine if it is worth more to sell/trade or keep. I'm guessing in that next two years, we will probably decide to move on to something else and let the value fall where it does. I do not see any scenario where todays value will climb with this particular car.

kjclow said:

Back to the op. I've owned my JSW for 8 years and was planning on a minimum of 10 when I bought it. So I have two years left to then determine if it is worth more to sell/trade or keep. I'm guessing in that next two years, we will probably decide to move on to something else and let the value fall where it does. I do not see any scenario where todays value will climb with this particular car.

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I'm the OP, and I was never asking or suggesting or thinking that the value will "climb". I was only asking how well, or not so well the resale value will perform. Wondering whether the reduced supply of TDIs (due to no new ones and crushed old ones) will help resale, or whether diesels in general will fall out of favor and wind up hurting resale of TDIs more than non-TDI VWs.

I don't think they made very many 2015 Beetle TDI's, so I am expecting them to be very, very collectible in the future. I will sell it for triple what I paid.

DieselMann99 said:

"Completely wrong"?? Ok, if you say so.

So if it's "completely wrong", I suppose then the total opposite would be completely right:

"A car delivers ROI in the same way as an investment portfolio or rental property delivers ROI".

Do you really wanna make that argument?

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Yes, your statement was completely wrong. And while the other statement you identified was not from me, I would completely agree it if it said that a car CAN deliver ROI …. Diesel flippers achieved ROI on their car purchases, that is a simple fact that entirely refutes your statement.

JCG57 said:

Yes, your statement was completely wrong. And while the other statement you identified was not from me, I would completely agree it if it said that a car CAN deliver ROI …. Diesel flippers achieved ROI on their car purchases, that is a simple fact that entirely refutes your statement.

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OK, a car CAN generate a profit. Yep, it's possible. Never said it wasn't. Just said that 99.99% of the time it won't happen. But if you believe a TDI flipper is typical of car ownership, go right ahead believing that. And I hope you sell your next car for thousands of dollars more than you paid for it, and I hope you do that with every car you buy for the rest of your life. And if you trade your car in after 5 years, I'm sure that the dealer will give you thousands more on the trade-in than what you paid for it 5 years earlier.

JCG57 said:

Diesel flippers achieved ROI on their car purchases, that is a simple fact that entirely refutes your statement.

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Not all of them did. Some bought cars that were deemed ineligible. Some had paperwork issues. Some lost out on legal interpretations...

There were a fair number that may have lost money. For example:

http://forums.tdiclub.com/showpost.php?p=5433347&postcount=2

Lightflyer1 said:

Not all of them did. Some bought cars that were deemed ineligible. Some had paperwork issues. Some lost out on legal interpretations...

There were a fair number that may have lost money. For example:

http://forums.tdiclub.com/showpost.php?p=5433347&postcount=2

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I will play DieselMann's game and throw out a figure without any evidence to back it up - I estimate that over 90% of the TDI flips generated a profit. I also suspect that this percentage is significantly better than those who pick traditional investments such as stocks, at least on the same time frame that applied to the diesel flip (under a year). I encourage you and DieselMann to think a little outside the box when it comes to investments - they don't have to be exclusive to brokerage firms, banks and investment companies. The economist's definition of an investment is simply deferred consumption; you can fit an awful lot of stuff in there that has the potential to generate a positive return.

DieselMann99 said:

I'm the OP, and I was never asking or suggesting or thinking that the value will "climb". I was only asking how well, or not so well the resale value will perform. Wondering whether the reduced supply of TDIs (due to no new ones and crushed old ones) will help resale, or whether diesels in general will fall out of favor and wind up hurting resale of TDIs more than non-TDI VWs.

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Maybe one can recover the extra ~$1000 (IIRC) premium they paid for the diesel if they find the right buyer, but that would probably be to only way used diesels will sell for more than their gasoline counterparts.