Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

Status
Not open for further replies.

tikal

Veteran Member
Joined
Apr 18, 2001
Location
Southeast Texas
TDI
2004 Passat Wagon (chainless + 5 MT + GDE tune)
Could be? The "could" is long since gone from that.



You make it sound like this isn't already happening every single day.


Guys. Really. EVs are pretty mainstream; there's no need to "what if" most of this stuff. Just go talk to someone who drives one.
Define "mainstream" please.

Here, it shows EVs penetration in the US as 0.5% in the US for Q1 2020, the lowest among many industrialized countries (tied with Italy):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ows-electric-vehicle-revolution-idUSKBN232230

Who would say currently (not in the future) that 0.5% EV penetration is mainstream for the USA?

I would like for the EV technology to be more popular in the US, but let's be honest about it also.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
Define "mainstream" please.
You're about to have a massive Cybertruck plant built just NE of Austin. It'll be difficult to argue that EVs aren't mainstream as trucks loaded with new Cybertrucks and possibly Model Y's pass you on the road every day.
 

tikal

Veteran Member
Joined
Apr 18, 2001
Location
Southeast Texas
TDI
2004 Passat Wagon (chainless + 5 MT + GDE tune)
You're about to have a massive Cybertruck plant built just NE of Austin. It'll be difficult to argue that EVs aren't mainstream as trucks loaded with new Cybertrucks and possibly Model Y's pass you on the road every day.
Eventually yes. We are not there yet. As one factory makes electrical trucks, more factories in Texas (San Antonio, Ft. Worth and so forth) and elsewhere are making many more gasoline powered trucks averaging 15 MPG or lower. Also as a factory makes electrical SUVs (or CUVs), many other factories are making gasoline powered SUVs that are averaging at best 25 MPG.

It will be very gradual the change of mentality in the US. The majority of people in the USA have other priorities to spend their money.

Maybe in a decade EVs will be around 25% of vehicles in the US, to be mainstream.

I wish I would be more optimistic for the US. In Europe, Japan, China, Canada, etc. it will be faster adoption indeed.
 

kjclow

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Location
Charlotte, NC
TDI
2010 JSW TDI silver and black. 2017 Ram Ecodiesel dark red with brown and beige interior.
I agree with tikal, one factory that is not yet producing the fugly cyber truck does not make it mainstream. Cybertruck will not replace the half ton and three quarter ton trucks coming of the lines and on the road today for quite a while. Other options that look more like a truck and hopefully also work more like a truck will make a larger ripple.
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Location
outside St Louis, MO
TDI
There are just too many to list....
That cybertruck is the four wheeled equivalent of a man bun. I seriously doubt beyond the rich boy flavor of the week "look at me see how trendy I am" crowd they will actually SELL many. And in the time it took you to read this sentence, another new F150 rolled off the assembly line.

And before anyone says it, "taking orders" for something is not the same as selling them. :rolleyes:

Besides, Ford has already teamed up with Rivian, so the second an uber ugly triumphantly expensive over the top electric "pickup" becomes "mainstream", Ford will have that covered.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
I remember when the new Dodge Ram cab design came out in the 90's and was seen as radical, fugly, etc. by most truck guys. Within a couple of years they were mostly all fine with it. Then Ford did their take on the design. It won't be long before rednecks are hanging their truck nutz from cybertruck hitches.
 

nayr

Veteran Member
Joined
Mar 26, 2013
Location
Colorado
TDI
2014 Audi Q7
Last edited:

nayr

Veteran Member
Joined
Mar 26, 2013
Location
Colorado
TDI
2014 Audi Q7
yeah towing and working w/EV truck is not on the horizon, not even close..

but considering my huge parking lot of programmers and radio engineers is over half trucks w/scratch free beds and hitch points I'm not sure thats as much of truck sales as we all think it is.. the other half of the vehicles in the lot are all mall crawler yotas and jeeps that are just as capable of being replaced by an EV as those trucks if it has the big dick look they want.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
I'm sort of like Doug Demuro- I love the oddball, quirky, and innovative automotive stuff. Just from a materials and structural design standpoint, the Cybertruck is tres cool. Beautiful..., perhaps not. Now it's time for me to watch NASA and SpaceX launch some astronauts from Cape Canaveral. Godspeed gentlemen!
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
Yup. Better safe than sorry. Saturday hopefully!
 

tikal

Veteran Member
Joined
Apr 18, 2001
Location
Southeast Texas
TDI
2004 Passat Wagon (chainless + 5 MT + GDE tune)
Perhaps Tesla will have better demand for these electrical trucks in Norway where electric vehicles are becoming mainstream based on the latest stats.
 

nicklockard

Torque Dorque
Joined
Aug 15, 2004
Location
Arizona
TDI
SOLD 2010 Touareg Tdi w/factory Tow PCKG
I agree with tikal, one factory that is not yet producing the fugly cyber truck does not make it mainstream. Cybertruck will not replace the half ton and three quarter ton trucks coming of the lines and on the road today for quite a while. Other options that look more like a truck and hopefully also work more like a truck will make a larger ripple.
I predict adoption of the cybertruck will be exponential. Elon is making every possible politically correct effort to align his external communications with the expected cybertruck consumer base, i.e. he's being extremely politically right wing lately. I predict that his psy-ops will succeed.
 

nicklockard

Torque Dorque
Joined
Aug 15, 2004
Location
Arizona
TDI
SOLD 2010 Touareg Tdi w/factory Tow PCKG
That cybertruck is the four wheeled equivalent of a man bun. I seriously doubt beyond the rich boy flavor of the week "look at me see how trendy I am" crowd they will actually SELL many. And in the time it took you to read this sentence, another new F150 rolled off the assembly line.

And before anyone says it, "taking orders" for something is not the same as selling them. :rolleyes:

Besides, Ford has already teamed up with Rivian, so the second an uber ugly triumphantly expensive over the top electric "pickup" becomes "mainstream", Ford will have that covered.
But, but! You've gotta love how Elon has branded 'air suspension' as a 22nd century 'outta this world' invention, even though my 2010 Touareg rocks 4 corner air suspension...Shhhhhhhh! don't tell fanboi's!
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke

Tin Man

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2001
Location
Coastal Empire
TDI
Daughter's: 2004 NB TDI PD GLS DSG (gone to pasture)
With enough charging stations and keeping the cost/KWH low, I see no downside to EV light trucks. Dunno if this translates to EV 18 wheelers but am sure someone has looked at this.

I'm still impressed with the base mpg of the old VW Polo diesel that hovered over 60 mpg. Using modern diesel emission equipment and renewable diesel fuel makes it a bit attractive.

Get your Teslas folks as when they start changing the styling, the classic shape will look better IMO.
 

GoFaster

Moderator at Large
Joined
Jun 16, 1999
Location
Brampton, Ontario, Canada
TDI
2006 Jetta TDI
Nope, https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/28/ford-cancels-lincoln-electric-vehicle-program-with-rivian/

I think we're already at point where uber ugly triumphantly expensive over the top pickups are mainstream, just missing that electric element.
That particular Rivian-rebranded-as-a-Lincoln has been cancelled, but Rivian itself is carrying on (and they've got a contract with Amazon to build delivery vans for them https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30768563/amazon-rivian-electric-delivery-van-revealed/ )

Ford owns a chunk of the Rivian company, Ford is known to be developing an electric F150, and Rivian has been testing their prototype "skateboard" chassis underneath F150 bodyshells, so there is a connection between the two companies, and probably engineers have been talking to each other. The electric F150 is different from the Rivian truck, though.

The Rivian truck is way more practical looking than the Tesla monstrosity - although the production version of that Tesla will require engineering changes relative to the prototype that we have seen.
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Location
outside St Louis, MO
TDI
There are just too many to list....
VAG is also changing a lot of its production capacity at the Salzgitter plant over to EV related stuff. Which has been an engine plant (gas and diesel, but once the TDIs came along was 75%+ diesel) since it stopped building the 412 and K70 in 1974.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
I think it's interesting how the media hailed something we were doing for years and stopped 9 years ago as "historic." I don't think I'm the only person that, although it is a great acheivement for Space-X, it's points out a huge failure for NASA.
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Location
outside St Louis, MO
TDI
There are just too many to list....
It was really the budget allotted to NASA, not really their "failure", although clearly (as with most gov't institutions) NASA's ability to budget themselves always fell short. So in that sense, it was a failure.

But I agree, nothing especially historic. But interesting and awesome nonetheless. I had goosebumps watching it.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
I had goosebumps too. My stomach was in my throat for the first few seconds after ignition. I do see it as historic- the first commercial launch of astronauts to orbit is a very big deal, imo. As cool as the space shuttles were, they were death traps, and insanely expensive. We have entered a new era of space flight. No more relying on 50 year old Russian rocket designs to get our folks to space!
 

kjclow

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Location
Charlotte, NC
TDI
2010 JSW TDI silver and black. 2017 Ram Ecodiesel dark red with brown and beige interior.
It was really the budget allotted to NASA, not really their "failure", although clearly (as with most gov't institutions) NASA's ability to budget themselves always fell short. So in that sense, it was a failure.
But I agree, nothing especially historic. But interesting and awesome nonetheless. I had goosebumps watching it.
The one thing that always pops into my mind was the thousands of dollars spent to develop an ink pen that would work in zero gravity. The Russians used a pencil.
 

kjclow

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Location
Charlotte, NC
TDI
2010 JSW TDI silver and black. 2017 Ram Ecodiesel dark red with brown and beige interior.
I had goosebumps too. My stomach was in my throat for the first few seconds after ignition. I do see it as historic- the first commercial launch of astronauts to orbit is a very big deal, imo. As cool as the space shuttles were, they were death traps, and insanely expensive. We have entered a new era of space flight. No more relying on 50 year old Russian rocket designs to get our folks to space!
Actually the rockets were not based on Russian design but on German designs from the early 1940s.
 

turbobrick240

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Location
maine
TDI
2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
Actually the rockets were not based on Russian design but on German designs from the early 1940s.
The Soyuz? It has very little resemblance to the V2. We got all of the best naz! scientists in operation paperclip. Including Von Braun obviously. The Russians had some second tier German scientists, but they sent them back to Germany pretty early on in their program. Korolev wasn't particularly impressed by them.
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Location
outside St Louis, MO
TDI
There are just too many to list....
The Russian R1 was a copy of the V2, and the R1 was the starting point for all the Russian launch vehicles, including the one that put Sputnik in orbit.

However, the term "rocket" as it applies here in its most basic form could all be traced back to the German program in much the same way all things termed "automobile" could be traced back to Daimler's original creation.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top