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Old November 4th, 2019, 12:51   #391
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The Lower Mainland, is a mess. No one thought about transportation, taking a bus anywhere is a nightmare and if I had to take transit to work, would take me half a day, and I work 30 km's from home.
We have no network and we keep building more and more homes, with no improvement in roads etc. We have literally doubled our population in 30 years and roads show it. Its a pain getting around.
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Old November 4th, 2019, 16:08   #392
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Unless I worked in Manhattan, mass transportation is useless around here.
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Old November 4th, 2019, 16:54   #393
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I live in a Seattle suburb. If I worked within the Seattle downtown core, there are multiple options I could take to get there. But my office is just south of Sea-Tac airport. For me to take mass transit to work, it would take at least two transfers and at least 2 hours to make the trip. And their schedule can't get me to the office by the time I normally begin working, so I'd have to work a later shift, reducing the time I have at home in the afternoon. I likely wouldn't even get home before my wife has gone to bed.

It's 14.5 miles to drive, which is about 20 minutes early in the morning and 30 minutes in the afternoon. I'm home before 3 in the afternoon, so plenty of time to do things around the house, visit the grandkids up the street, or just take it easy.

In the US, for the time being, viable mass transportation is very dependent on location. When I visit FAA HQ in DC, the Metro works fantastically for me. I can stay in a hotel in Virginia, close to DCA for my arrival and departure, and be at the FAA building (right across the street from the Air and Space Museum) 15 minutes after leaving my hotel room. When mass transit works, it's great. But again, it's highly dependent where you are.

EDIT: I just used the King County Metro web site to see what my transit route would entail. Not as long as I thought, about 90 minutes. I have to walk to the stop closest to my home. Not too far (maybe a 1/3 mile) but it's uphill at a fair slope. Then it's three transfers (three different buses plus a short jaunt on the Sounder heavy rail) before another 1/4 mile walk to my building. OK, so kinda doable. But then I see the fare. $8 per trip. Looking at the trip home, it only takes two transfers and about 10 additional minutes. I know from experience that it will most likely add 20 additional minutes. But because it doesn't use the Sounder, the fare is less: $4.75.

So, $12.75 per day. I telework two days a week, so would pay this on average 12 days per month. $153 per month. I recognize that the federal gvmt will pay for me to use mass transit, but still. Driving my current car, a PHEV Niro, I'm spending about $12 for gas every 6-7 WEEKS, and that is covering all my driving, not just my work commute. So by driving myself, I save the gvmt over $150 per month, and myself over 2 hours a day that I'm not just sitting on a bus. This is the problem with mass transit.
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Old November 4th, 2019, 22:23   #394
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Originally Posted by kjclow View Post
It's not the price of the fuel where people see the differences at the pump. It's the added taxes. All fuels are priced and traded on a global basis these days. Sure some areas push one grade over another, but it's still on a global demand. If there is a hiccup in one area of the world, (Middle East), it effects the actual global fuel price. Some regions, like Brazil, were pushing their own local production and keeping their pump prices artificially low for years.
When I refer to "the price of the fuel" I refer to the price at the pump. Simple.

Compare the price at the pump of regular unleaded gasoline in Western Europe, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Canada vs the price at the pump of regular unleaded gasoline in the US and my bet would be that the US price is one of the lowest if not the lowest (per liter or gallon, does not matter of course as long as we are talking same units of volume).
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Old November 5th, 2019, 04:44   #395
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While I live in the country, I do drive into the STL area every day, and the mass transit here is awful too. And unsafe. VERY unsafe. Even if it did run in a way that I could use it, I don't feel like risking a bullet wound every day, no thanks. I'll drive myself.

Fortunately none of us will live long enough to see any major sweeping changes in anything, and the population growth in our country has stagnated so perhaps some of the urban sprawl will subside. This varies in different areas of course. Some places (like St. Charles county near me) have had exponential growth, subdivision after subdivision, full of heavily financed houses that all look exactly alike, and traffic jams on surface streets every hour... and other places that people have left from and look like ghost towns (parts of Michigan are like that). And California that is on fire seemingly in perpetuity... maybe some people leaving there and going to Texas (seems to be a trend).
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Old November 5th, 2019, 07:46   #396
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I agree with you. I’m just saying ICE engines are now the old solution to transportation needs. There are still horse drawn buggies today, and ICE engines won’t disappear over night either, but the EV’s are coming, and WILL replace them.
Indeed EVs are coming. What some (or many) of us are saying is that the rate of growth of EVs in North America is going to be relatively slow and nowhere to be compared to something like the smartphone revolution that started around 2007. Given everything as today in terms of cost of fuels in the US, EVs might go from like a 2.5% market share (latest data I have) to no more than 10% by 2030 in the US. Am I wrong in this prediction?

Another way to look at it. You own a Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic or similar, you commute daily around 50 to 75 miles average and you are looking to buy a similar daily driver vehicle for work. What would be your incentive to buy a similar sized EV that cost let's say around $35,000 (average) vs a similar ICE vehicle costing around $20,000? In this case we are talking about a 75% premium upgrade to pay for an EV (on the average).

Right now, in my view, neither the environmental thinking or the economical factor is there for the average American buyer to switch to EVs at a rapid pace.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 08:07   #397
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Let me add a little family perspective: My grandfather and grandmother were both born in 1898 and married in 1918. For a wedding gift, they got a team of draft horses for farming. They bought their first motorized tractor in the mid 40s when the boys did not come back to the farm. My grandparents went from horse and buggy to getting on a jet plane to see their daughter in Florida. Grandma always said that we (her grandchildren) would never see the level of changes in our lives that they did.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 09:11   #398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kjclow View Post
Let me add a little family perspective: My grandfather and grandmother were both born in 1898 and married in 1918. For a wedding gift, they got a team of draft horses for farming. They bought their first motorized tractor in the mid 40s when the boys did not come back to the farm. My grandparents went from horse and buggy to getting on a jet plane to see their daughter in Florida. Grandma always said that we (her grandchildren) would never see the level of changes in our lives that they did.
Of course while it may have seemed that way to grandma, change has actually
accelerated during our generation's time. This will likely continue, barring a global
catastrophe.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 09:21   #399
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Quote:
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Of course while it may have seemed that way to grandma, change has actually
accelerated during our generation's time. This will likely continue, barring a global
catastrophe.
I disagree. I think the changes from before electricity to after will be looked upon from a historical perspective as a much greater time of change. It is starting to level out now, because most all the "new" tech is not new, it is just improved and/or shrunken and/or cheapened and/or made available to far more people.

I think the changes that happened from 1850 to 2000 are pretty drastic.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 09:53   #400
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I'd say it's been a fairly linear (and radical)progression since the industrial revolution. The mapping of the human genome is a huge leap forward. The advances in computing power and the internet are also huge. It's crazy to think how much information we have right at our fingertips today.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 09:57   #401
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilhammer View Post
I disagree. I think the changes from before electricity to after will be looked upon from a historical perspective as a much greater time of change. It is starting to level out now, because most all the "new" tech is not new, it is just improved and/or shrunken and/or cheapened and/or made available to far more people.
I think the changes that happened from 1850 to 2000 are pretty drastic.
Well, grandma hails from 1898 not 1850.
By that year, automobiles were being sold, cities were being electrified and heavier-
than-air flight was already happening although powered flight wouldn't for 5 years.
Nothing in history suggests that the pace of change 'levels out'. If anything,
history demonstrates the opposite. Maybe our perception is what levels out.
Nothing in history compares to the change produced by the information revolution.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 10:17   #402
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You must not have learned about what is now known as the Dark Ages in history class. While I certainly wasn't there, I did learn about it, and I would think most experts on the time period would agree that human advancement most certainly went BACKWARDS during that time period. Not much science was happening when you are just trying to stay alive.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 11:40   #403
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You probably won't find the term "dark ages" in many textbooks today . I think that brief period of stagnation/regression was mostly just a Western European phenomenon following the disintegration of the Roman empire. I think that time period may have been an intellectual golden era in other areas like the mid-east.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 13:11   #404
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Except the xenophobic Chinese rulers for a a time stopped all exploration. Which seems to have a lot of mounting evidence to have gone on for longer and more extensively than previously thought.
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Old November 5th, 2019, 14:14   #405
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My dad was born on a farm in 1909, #5 out of 17. I would agree about the changes in living that generation experienced. The rate technology advanced in our lifetimes is phenomenal, but I don’t think it compares to waking up in the winter and going outside to crap with no such thing as a flashlight, going 10 miles into town on a horse drawn carriage with straw and a blanket for a heater. Then not even making it back the same day (that might have something to do with Grandpa’s bootlegging. Compared to electricity, forced air heat, and automobiles with clean diesels for travel. We live easy with countless options.
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