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Old August 14th, 2019, 16:30   #1
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Default Volkswagen exec reaffirms commitment to diesel: ‘Now it is absolutely clean’

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-riva...ent-interview/

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Recent comments from a Volkswagen executive suggests that the German automaker is not yet ready to fully let go of diesel-powered vehicles. The comments, which were related by Sebastian Willmann, Head of Diesel Engine Development at VW, were published by the veteran carmaker in a blog post promoting its 2.0 TDI EA288 Evo diesel engine, which is designed to meet the strict Euro 6d-Temp standard.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 18:03   #2
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I hope this means they will eventually reintroduce diesels in NA, but I doubt it.

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Volkswagen has since unveiled its first all-electric car, the ID.3
Hmmm... I'm pretty sure my e-Golf is all-electric, as were the CityStromer Golf models going back to 1989
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Old August 14th, 2019, 18:14   #3
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Just yesterday I was talking with my local guru about the return of VW diesels. He believes that VW won't do anything until the buyback cars are all sold. We're getting close to that. And then he thinks they may bring the EA288 back, as it will meet EPA standards without difficulty. We were also wondering why VW doesn't seem to be doing much in the way of gasoline engine development. Perhaps that indicates a desire to add diesels to the lineup instead of new gasoline engines.

Or we could be dreaming...
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Old August 14th, 2019, 18:55   #4
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Yeah, we're dreaming.

I did read an article the other day that ocean-going vessels are all going to have to switch from bunker fuel to something a little more refined, and that was expected to cause a significant rise in the price of diesel fuel for general use. Can't remember when the cutover was supposed to happen, but it wasn't far off. A couple of years at most. While there are stations around me that have kept the price of D2 near RUG, there are others that D2 is a little higher than PUG. If what this article said is true, D2 could end up $1 or more per gallon higher than even PUG. That alone would kill any chances of the TDI returning to the US.

Myself personally, I've already gone to a plug-in hybrid, and when VW finally gets the ID Crozz (hopefully with a better name) stateside my lease will be up and I'll be looking hard it at. With my current car, I'm around 400 MPG, and using about $15 per month in electricity. I can live with that.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 21:00   #5
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When the elctric car thing bombs (there will be a surge of interest, since the whining Euro weenies and the looney idiots in the press tell everyone that they are the future) there MIGHT be a chance to buy another diesel from someone, maybe not VW though. Too bad, since after 50+ years of involvement, I have probably bought my last ever new VW (Q7 TDI)
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Old August 14th, 2019, 23:55   #6
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Originally Posted by Pat Dolan View Post
When the elctric car thing bombs
What exactly would cause them to 'bomb'? There has already been significant improvement just in the past 5 years and the rare materials like cobalt are being engineered out of the battery. Batteries are getting cheaper, more powerful, longer lasting AND more sustainable.

PLUS there's an increasing amount of clean and 'free' energy available called 'curtailed renewables'. CA is tossed out enough surplus solar in May to power >1M EVs. Add an EV to a network and you can get free power when free power is available. Doesn't get any cleaner than solar or wind that would have been wasted if it wasn't used to charge a car
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Old August 15th, 2019, 03:21   #7
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One thing that might help electric cars bomb is if owners have to pay the full cost for the car without subsidies, and if they have to pay the same taxes for fuel as other cars. The fuel tax won't amount to much, given electric's MPGe, but eliminating the Federal and state handouts could cause buyers to look to less expensive options.

Sadly, the current oil glut doesn't give drivers incentive to save fuel with either diesel or electric. That's why Ford sold nearly a million F 150s last year. Doesn't bode well for diesel or electric.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 07:22   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat Dolan View Post
When the elctric car thing bombs (there will be a surge of interest, since the whining Euro weenies and the looney idiots in the press tell everyone that they are the future) there MIGHT be a chance to buy another diesel from someone, maybe not VW though. Too bad, since after 50+ years of involvement, I have probably bought my last ever new VW (Q7 TDI)
Have you driven a good EV?

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Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon View Post
One thing that might help electric cars bomb is if owners have to pay the full cost for the car without subsidies, and if they have to pay the same taxes for fuel as other cars. The fuel tax won't amount to much, given electric's MPGe, but eliminating the Federal and state handouts could cause buyers to look to less expensive options.

Sadly, the current oil glut doesn't give drivers incentive to save fuel with either diesel or electric. That's why Ford sold nearly a million F 150s last year. Doesn't bode well for diesel or electric.
While crappy compliance cars' sales fall off a cliff when incentives are removed and taxes added, actually good EVs merely see a pull-forward of the existing demand to get the incentive, and then a dip in sales for a quarter or two until the demand recovers. We're seeing this effect with Tesla in the US right now, and we've seen it in various European countries.

Part of this is simply because in some ways, EVs are better. Much smoother and much more responsive power delivery than a turbocharged ICE with a randoshift transmission or a CVT, quieter, and if you've got somewhere to plug it in at night or at work, you don't have to stop to refuel it for your daily driving.

And, F-150s are really an American thing - in much of the rest of the world, fuel taxes (which attempt to internalize the negative externalities of burning fuel) make them too expensive to use. But, even in that kind of giving no ****s about the environment or fuel costs market, Tesla's selling every car they can make here.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 08:31   #9
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I hope they come back here. That would be great. Their US portfolio is just getting worse and worse seemingly by the day.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 09:49   #10
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Toof, I think it's premature to make any claims about sales trends as rebates disappear. And Tesla's days of selling every car they can make (despite their history of not meeting production targets) may be behind them. We don't have enough history on that to say, either.

And you're right, trucks are an American thing. That's where I live. But electrics are kind of an American thing, too. Europeans I talk to don't take electrics seriously except for urban use, because at European highway speeds they can have trouble with batteries overheating and the actual range is dramatically reduced. I haven't talked to anyone from Norway, however.

I honestly can't believe that as a culture how totally insensitive we are to the fossil fuels we consume. At Starbucks this AM the parking lot was gridlocked momentarily because of the huge trucks and SUVs trying to get in and out of spaces that are too small for them. All the vehicles I saw had one occupant and no payload. Crazy.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 10:20   #11
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Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon View Post
One thing that might help electric cars bomb is if owners have to pay the full cost for the car without subsidies,
Except the cost of EVs is falling faster than the subsidies are phasing out. By ~2025 they'll likely be cheaper than an equivalent ICE.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 10:39   #12
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I'm with IBW that EVs are not carrying their share of the "road tax" burden, since that's levied through purchase of fuels they don't use. This is likely to become a LOT more interesting when the all-electric tractor-trailer cabs start appearing on the roads, since diesel tractor-trailers buy a LOT of fuel. There's been no real discussion about how to account for the "gas tax" revenue lost to EVs, other than some hare-brained silliness about GPS trackers being forced on the owners, and it needs to start happening SOON.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 11:02   #13
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One positive news about the Diesels, I hope VW brings these fine vehicles back to NA.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 11:26   #14
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Except the cost of EVs is falling faster than the subsidies are phasing out. By ~2025 they'll likely be cheaper than an equivalent ICE.
What evidence do you see of this? Tesla's playing pricing games, has nothing to do with the cost of building the cars, as their second quarter profit figures demonstrated. New EVs from Audi, Jaguar, and Mercedes are all in Model S price ranges.

Look at it this way:
  • MSRP for a Chevrolet Bolt is $36,620. It earns a $3,750 federal tax credit, and up to an $1,875 state tax credit ($1,500 in MA). That makes the total cost of the car $30,995.
  • A Chevy Sonic Hatch an MSRP of $18,020. A Cruze Hatch is $19,620. A Trax is $21,300. So the largest price difference is $12,975.
Some buyers may not be able to use the entire tax credit. And they may need a charging station in their house. The $13,000 difference works out to about $240/month on a 5 year loan. That would buy a lot of gasoline.

So even with the credit and rebate the electric is going to cost substantially more to own in the first 5 years. And a lot more if the incentives go away.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 12:30   #15
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I know this has been discussed on here before, but the speculation that BEV will reach price parity with ICEV by 2025 is not a unanimous conclusion.

According to a recent comprehensive "cradle-to-grave" study (Elgowainy et al. (2018), “Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment” Environ. Sci. Technol.), the cost of long-range BEV on 100% solar power is expected to decrease to $0.38/mile over its entire lifespan (15 years) by 2035, while the cost of ICEV over its lifespan is projected to be $0.26/mile (fossil gasoline) to $0.31/mile (renewable gasoline/diesel) by 2035.
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