Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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2015vwgolfdiesel

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According to GREET, replacing a Golf TDI with 60,000 miles on it (i.e., scrapping it) with a new eGolf would take 6,200 miles to offset the NOx emissions from manufacturing the gGolf, 1,600,000 miles to offset VOC emissions, 400,000 miles to offset the CO emissions, 39,000 miles to offset the GHG emissions, never offset the PM emissions, and never offset the SOx emissions.

This was based on the average of the emissions that WVU measured in their "real-world" driving study of the 2012 VW Jetta TDI (Thompson et al., "In-Use Emissions Testing of Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles in the United States." International Council on Clean Transportation Report, May 15, 2014).


hmmmmmmmmmmmm:eek:
 

Oilerlord

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Ultimately, if a highly efficient vehicle is replacing an inefficient vehicle, the payback period ends up being within the service life.
Absolutely!

Highly efficient vehicles fresh off the factory floor don't add GHG emissions, especially the ones without a tailpipe. They clean the air as you drive. I see your point now. The answer has always been more cars.



https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/

C'mon guys, let's do our part in hitting the 100 million mark this year! We're so close...just a few more leases to go.
 

bhtooefr

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Obviously they don't clean the air as they drive, but buying an EV, then driving it instead of many ICE cars, especially if you opt for cleaner electricity, can pay off within the service life of the EV, especially if you're focusing on CO2 - note wxman's comments about 39,000 mile payoff, and that'll be on US grid mix.

As far as the other emissions... That's not location-dependent weighting, is it? AFAIK, the data is hard to find and not very high quality for that...
 

Oilerlord

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So, and if we're on the same page...we need more cars. Perhaps by 2032 worldwide production will hit 200 million per year. I guess one minor issue we haven't thought of is our cities running out of out farmland & natural spaces to annex for the plants that build them, and for the next round of mega dealerships to store the rising number of new & used vehicles on. Shouldn't be a problem though, simply because lithium ion battery packs are becoming more and more advanced as the technology evolves, and more people will be more apt to lease a brand new EV. Bingo! More cars. It's what the world needs.

I love seeing dozens of rabbits, and several coyotes running around our neighborhood. So cute!
 

bhtooefr

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Note that the used ICE vehicles would likely see a value crash, so they'd be recycled.

And, eventually things would reach a point where the improved efficiency of a new car isn't enough to offset things, and there is no downstream inefficient cars that get replaced.

In any case, there's also going to be... A lot of cities should just straight up ban cars altogether, not just for pollution reasons, but also livability, relegating cars to inter-city and rural usage. That's unlikely to happen quickly in the US, but in other parts of the world, it's already starting, and that will reduce the number of cars on the road.
 
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oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Population growth is the biggest issue. Everything mankind does or does not do is ultimately tied to that.

At least we know tooef is doing his part on that front. ;)
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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...snip...

In any case, there's also going to be... A lot of cities should just straight up ban cars altogether, not just for pollution reasons, but also livability, relegating cars to inter-city and rural usage. That's unlikely to happen quickly in the US, but in other parts of the world, it's already starting, and that will reduce the number of cars on the road.
... walk to work -- walk to store .. walk to doctor...

... me thinks not. :eek:
 

Oilerlord

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Population growth is the biggest issue. Everything mankind does or does not do is ultimately tied to that.
That, and the choices we make as individuals. 30 years ago, if you would have asked me if I'd ever own four cars - I would have laughed. Now, it's a reality...between my wife and I, we own four used cars. I suppose I could look at parking those cars as the industrialized version of a tree that sequesters CO2.
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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That, and the choices we make as individuals. 30 years ago, if you would have asked me if I'd ever own four cars - I would have laughed. Now, it's a reality...between my wife and I, we own four used cars. I suppose I could look at parking those cars as the industrialized version of a tree that sequesters CO2.

35 years ago I once had 5 cars.

Two in the garage. New Honda Accord(s). New-ish 3/4 ton Chevy window van. (top of the line)

Two 1965 Chevy beaters, and a 1966 beater. Two in the drive way (room for 4 cars) and 1 in the street
 

turbobrick240

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Yeah, it is amazing that Homo Sapiens survived for 300,000 years before the automobile came along. :rolleyes:
Closer to 2 million+ years actually. But yeah, our ancestors were amazing endurance runners. They would actually run down prey like deer until the prey collapsed from exhaustion. It's sad to see what has happened to our general fitness since industrialization.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Anatomically equivalent humans came around later. At least, according to the internet. 200-300k years. But yes, the early protohumans (Homo Erectus, etc.) are much, much older.
 

aja8888

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Closer to 2 million+ years actually. But yeah, our ancestors were amazing endurance runners. They would actually run down prey like deer until the prey collapsed from exhaustion. It's sad to see what has happened to our general fitness since industrialization.
That's when scientists think "man" first appeared in ape form, but the breeding different species into "Homo Sapiens" and using tools and fire didn't occur until much more recently (say 100,000 - 300,000 years ago). Until man used fire and tools, he was food for some other creature. We someday may reverse the trend we are currently in and cars won't mean $h*t, electric or otherwise:D.
 

turbobrick240

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Anatomically equivalent humans came around later. At least, according to the internet. 200-300k years. But yes, the early protohumans (Homo Erectus, etc.) are much, much older.
You're right. I was thinking of humans more broadly- homo sapiens seems to be around 300k years old.
 

CraziFuzzy

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To be perfectly honest, 'clean air', or environmental concerns, didn't factor in to my EV lease decision at all - it was a 100% economic/efficiency decision. Not every EV driver is out there trying to 'save the world'... I was just trying to afford more beer.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Bingo.

FWIW, Jason and I are also doing our part. ;)
I am too, but not by choice.

I would, however, be thoughtful of planning for your future, as without children, you may not have someone to help with you as you age. So filling a driveway of a house that isn't even yours with expensive cars may not be the wisest economic decision unless you have a LOT of disposable income. Investment in real estate (your own, not someone else's) and sacking away as high of a percentage of your income before taxes as the gov't allows annually will pay out later in life.

And know that, as a car guy, this fact kinda sucks. But, that's the way it goes. Fortunately I can get "my fix" with cars and still earn a living. I could not imagine NOT having my career and my hobby being completely different. I certainly couldn't afford it. ;)
 
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kjclow

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... walk to work -- walk to store .. walk to doctor...

... me thinks not. :eek:
My grandparents and great grandparents did it this way. Farm the land you live on to be mostly self sustaining. Use your livestock for work, food, and fertilizer. Doctor yourselves, as much as possible. They must have survived because I'm here.

At one point, 40 acres and a mule was enough for anyone to survive on.
 

Oilerlord

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To be perfectly honest, 'clean air', or environmental concerns, didn't factor in to my EV lease decision at all - it was a 100% economic/efficiency decision. Not every EV driver is out there trying to 'save the world'... I was just trying to afford more beer.
For me, it started with buying a couple of electric bikes for my wife & I. Not only are they totally fun, I found I could ride it up to ~50 miles on a charge. A lot of guys call them "cheater" bikes but they are the great equalizer when going out on a ride with my wife. She simply uses more electric assist to keep up to me. We both end up great exercise and ride longer distances.

Before that, my take on electric cars was that they were expensive toys for the eccentric left wingers, and greenpeace activists. They made zero financial sense, and for that matter, the environmental benefits were marginal. Reading about the degradation on Leaf batteries confirmed my bias against them. I had made up my mind that EVs were pretty much a joke funded by taxpayers.

I started looking into solar as a hobby project, and more about sticking it to the power company than anything to do with the environment. I started out running the numbers on 4 panels, but the project morphed into 41. After minimizing the cost of the project by going with 5-year old panels and doing a lot of my own DIY - I got it done at under $2/watt (the local installer was quoting $4.50).

We were exporting a lot of power to the grid, especially in the summer. Because our base power rates are pretty low, it bugged me that I was basically giving it away for next to nothing so that the POCO could just turn around and sell it to my neighbors for a tidy profit. That's when I took a serious look at EVs. I was absolutely floored at how cheap you could pick up a nearly new, very low mileage "used" EV for. I ran the numbers, and it made sense for us.

The rest is history. So, I guess you could say I'm "doing my part" (for the environment) - but really, it was unintentional and only a side effect of looking for ways to save money while sticking it to the man.
 

aja8888

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I am too, but not by choice.

I would, however, be thoughtful of planning for your future, as without children, you may not have someone to help with you as you age. So filling a driveway of a house that isn't even yours with expensive cars may not be the wisest economic decision unless you have a LOT of disposable income. Investment in real estate (your own, not someone else's) and sacking away as high of a percentage of your income before taxes as the gov't allows annually will pay out later in life.

And know that, as a car guy, this fact kinda sucks. But, that's the way it goes. Fortunately I can get "my fix" with cars and still earn a living. I could not imagine NOT having my career and my hobby being completely different. I certainly couldn't afford it. ;)
Some great forward thinking and planning in Oilhammer's post. Not too many young people think about how to plan for the last few innings of their lives. I got serious about it at 50 (kind of late) and set myself up so that my daughter won't be burdened with me near the end. But she will be there if necessary.

And remember, our government that is generous with energy and environmental rebates for these expensive electric and hybrid cars won't be giving you any help when you may need it.
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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My grandparents and great grandparents did it this way.

Farm the land you live on to be mostly self sustaining. Use your livestock for work, food, and fertilizer.

Doctor yourselves, as much as possible.

.. snip... At one point, 40 acres and a mule was enough for anyone to survive on.


.... hmmmmmmm

.... at the turn of the last century (1900) was the life expectancy 42-ish?

.... It was a rare breed who knew all his/her grandchildren.
 

turbobrick240

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It was closer to 50 at the turn of the century. That plummeted about 12 years during the 1918 flu pandemic though. Safe to say it wasn't exercise that was killing them.
 

Oilerlord

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And remember, our government that is generous with energy and environmental rebates for these expensive electric and hybrid cars won't be giving you any help when you may need it.
Financial / retirement planning really has nothing to do with EVs, or our government(s) funding of a variety of programs such as medicare, food stamps, social & homeland security, welfare, etc. I think it's important to realize that when government reduces or stops funding one program - the "saved" money seldom gets reallocated to programs we may approve of, or at all.
 

aja8888

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Financial / retirement planning really has nothing to do with EVs, or our government(s) funding of a variety of programs such as medicare, food stamps, social & homeland security, welfare, etc. I think it's important to realize that when government reduces or stops funding one program - the "saved" money seldom gets reallocated to programs we may approve of, or at all.
It all comes out of the same pot (taxpayer money).

My point was that the gov will not take care of you when you are destitute unless you are disabled or can get in a Medicaid nursing home, and if you haven't seen one of those, it ain't the Ritz,
 

kjclow

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It was closer to 50 at the turn of the century. That plummeted about 12 years during the 1918 flu pandemic though. Safe to say it wasn't exercise that was killing them.
My lineage has typically survived to 70s and 80s as far back as the late 1700s. War influences not included. That’s why I look at retirement modeling through age 100.
 

kjclow

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For me, it started with buying a couple of electric bikes for my wife & I. Not only are they totally fun, I found I could ride it up to ~50 miles on a charge. A lot of guys call them "cheater" bikes but they are the great equalizer when going out on a ride with my wife. She simply uses more electric assist to keep up to me. We both end up great exercise and ride longer distances.
My first though is that I agree about the cheater bike comment but it all depends on your current health and distance you’re trying to cover. We typically ride about 30 miles a day on a weekend ride and anywhere from 10 to 30 miles during the week. For Ragbrai, the average day is about 60 miles a day. I did see one ebike out there this year but have to wonder how long they will be allowed to use them. My wife can keep up with me unless I really want to push for speed. Hitting 35-40 under your own power is a high that no drug can duplicate.
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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. Hitting 35-40 under your own power is a high that no drug can duplicate.

In my 50s and 60s, Western, 2 Stepping, & Ballroom dancing (5-6 nights a week) 18 - 22 hours a week, was a kick. Endorphins hit at about 60-90 minuets. Ye ha. :rolleyes:

.... 6.5 hours was my MAX time in one night.
 

bhtooefr

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Generally laws have been trending towards more acceptance of electric bicycles, although with codifying specific restrictions for their use.

The federal laws for what can be sold as a "low-speed electric bicycle" basically boil down to the following: 750 W maximum, must have pedals, and if the rider isn't pedaling, must not be able to exceed 20 mph on level ground.

That says nothing about what you're allowed to use, though.

For comparison, European laws for an electric pedal-assist cycle are: 250 W continuous maximum (note that continuous is after 30 seconds...), must be pedaled to get assistance (except for a 6 km/h (3.7 mph) walking assist mode), and no assistance above 25 km/h (15.5 mph).

There's also an S-Pedelec category in Europe, based on moped laws, that requires licensing and registration, and has reduced access to cycling infrastructure, but is allowed 500 W and 45 km/h (28.0 mph).

As far as what you can use... Some states allow anything that's legal under the federal law, some states allow nothing or classify it as some kind of motorcycle/moped (Ohio and New York come to mind), and then there's the California legislation that is being used as a model elsewhere (including in New York's bill).

The California law designates three kinds of e-bike. All three are 750 W maximum. The first is 20 mph maximum and must be pedaled to get assistance, the second is the same but can use a throttle - otherwise they have the same requirements (IIRC, nobody under 16 operating it, otherwise basically the same as a bicycle), but the class distinction is so that off-road trails can opt to exclude bikes with throttles. The third class is 28 mph maximum and must be pedaled (so an S-Pedelec falls into this class as-is), and has stricter age, helmet, and usage requirements (some cycling infrastructure is unavailable).

Worth noting that the bill in New York is only allowing the first class (which is essentially what NYC has effectively legalized).
 
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