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Old December 10th, 2018, 10:11   #22
eddie_1
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Hannover, Germany formerly Toronto & NY
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Right, you guys figured out what is going on. As you say, where things will go from here is hard to say. Already alot of damage has been done. Because of all the politics and uncertainty people have already started to panic somewhat. The price of used Euro4 or even Euro5 diesels has tanked. People have started to make use of the 'cash for clunkers' offers and hand in their cars (even high end Audis etc.) in almost pristine condition to be junked. Even the junk yard guys are sad, although it is a windfall for them. Most times parts are then sent off to eastern europe etc. With repurchase folks often then go for a TSI not an Euro6 TDI because they don't now trust the diesel politics. Others (like us) say they will just keep driving them as long as possible and where possible. Possible scenarios:
1) The hardware solution becomes legit. The govt. finds a way to implement/finance the Euro4/5 to Euro 6 conversion. This is the fairest way forward. Interstingly, the leader of the Federal Green party Cem Özdemir supports this. (Only guy in the entire govt. that speaks sense to me. He doesn't want to see the little guy screwed.) Even if we had to pay for it ourselves this would be cheaper and less wasteful than junking nice cars.
2) The industry gets its way and the little guy gets squeezed between industry interests and increasing city bans and has to buy new cars.
3) Premature killing of diesel and icb due to electro-hype. The German car manufacturers have now also started making noises to this effect to become electro by mid 2020s. This one is like a holy grail or illusion thing, where suddenly all on offer in a few years are electric cars and they need to dig up half of Africa to make the batteries. This one is hard to say how it will pan out because you are talking of complete industry supply chain change, infrastructure change (Germany is behind even on charging stations), lot of issues like range not sorted out, could still end up being a dead end. (My view).

Hopefully cool heads will prevail and reasonable solutions can be found on both sides of the atlantic.
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