Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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turbobrick240

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Daimler should have bought the vehicle and kept it, or at least rented a fleet vehicle. Doing that to someone's privately owned vehicle while simultaneously violating multiple terms of the rental agreement is just absurd. IMO, Sixt and/or Daimler should replace the vehicle for the owners.
That said, this shows me that Daimler is finally taking Tesla seriously, as until now, they apparently haven't been bothered to see what makes these vehicles tick. Who knows... maybe they've dismantled a few in the past and we just never heard about it.
I agree. The real kicker is that after they dissected the car and beat the piss out of it, they returned it with a note saying the owner had parked it improperly! Looks as though hubris may be systemic in the German auto industry.
 

Oilerlord

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Oilerlord's generalizations about the behavioral patterns of various auto buyers is a stretch. Many people here on TDIClub do buy TDIs for the long haul. I would argue that there are many EV buyers who have the same goals. Some people will, of course, want the latest and greatest thing, always upgrading to the newest vehicle and selling their old ones. That is neither a quality representative of EV buyers nor a quality specific to EV buyers.
VeeDub, of course there are exceptions but to suggest that "many" EV buyers keep their EVs for the long haul really is a stretch. While shopping for an EV, most choose leasing over buying an EV for two main reasons:

1.) Lease payments on an EVs are artificially affordable. The manufacturer needs those CARB credits, and is willing to take a big loss per unit to obtain them. As an example, I've found leases for $30,000 Kia Soul EVs at $99 per month. The CEO of Fiat once said they lose $14,000 on every 500e they produce. https://insideevs.com/fiat-ceo-fiat-loses-14000-every-500e-sold/

2.) An EV's main traction battery has a finite lifespan. People don't want to get stuck with a degraded battery.

Leasing has lead to the proliferation of vehicles. That's not a stretch. In the last few years, the population in my city has had modest growth but there has been an explosion in both the number and size of car dealerships. I think that's a trend that's happening in other cities too. From an environmental point of view, I don't see that as a win.
 

turbobrick240

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2.) An EV's main traction battery has a finite lifespan. People don't want to get stuck with a degraded battery.
That's true. The public will become more comfortable with battery tech as the EV's on the road rack up high mileage. Every car part ever made has a finite lifespan. The closest thing to immortality in the auto universe will be a gen 1 Roadster drifting in the vacuum of space. ;)
 

Oilerlord

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Battery technology also may have the opportunity to allow for easy transfer to an older car. Provided the form factor doesn't radically change. I can put new lithium gold whatever you call it D batteries in a flashlight made in the 1960s, and it will work just fine. The difference is the 3v lamp will simply last longer.

The same could be said for ICE vehicles, but it generally is not as straightforward as a drop in upgrade. At least, it has not been made to be available like that.
Zelectric does an incredible job "electrifying" older VW's and Porsches. Not only is it cool, but as most of us would agree with - it's environmentally responsible to give new life to older cars. The trouble is, Zelectric is a boutique low-volume business, and the customer still ends end up with an old, relatively unsafe (by modern crash test standards) car.

Unfortunately, it's tough to scale a business that depends on 50 year old feedstock, and even tougher when no ISO battery pack form factor exists between manufacturers. Each conversion that Zelectric does is pretty much a one-off, custom job.

When my battery degrades to the point that it's range doesn't work for me anymore, I'd like to think that Mercedes will offer an affordable 36 kWh replacement pack - but I'm not holding my breath. My best shot will be finding a used one from a wrecked B250e that's been parted out.
 
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Oilerlord

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Every car part ever made has a finite lifespan.
While true, my EV's battery isn't just another car part. It's a $34,000 consumable.



Perhaps when the time comes to replace it, there will be businesses that offer reasonably priced services to replace battery packs in older compliance EV's like my B250e and VeeDub's 500e. I've looked into the prices of replacement 18650 battery cells. Right now, they are about $2 each. I'd need about 2900 of them. Unfortunately, the process of replacing them isn't quite as easy as replacing the batteries in your flashlight. :(
 
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turbobrick240

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The early Nissan LEAF had some durability issues regarding the batteries, but that was mostly due to poor cooling, and battery management.

I don't know what kind of warranty Mercedes offers on the batteries, but Tesla has 8 years/unlimited miles on theirs *edit: On new cars, and excluding the 60 KW/hr battery(not sure if that applies to the model 3). A typical model S owner can expect to have about 90% capacity left at 150k miles. The good news is that lithium ion battery chemistry is constantly improving, and production costs/ consumer cost is dropping like a stone.
 
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2015vwgolfdiesel

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Cars.COM yields zero new car listings for Tesla

Wonder if there is a "floor price" on MSRP:rolleyes:

... and 'bout 388 used listings

... approx 20 % private sellers -- and 'bout 80 % dealers

... Cheapest at $26,500-ish

... Highest 'bout $168,000-ish

... I had no idea the market was so limited
 
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bhtooefr

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There's no such thing as MSRP for new ones, there's just the price (Tesla runs a no-haggle model, and with no dealers, there's nothing like the pinstriping scams that some dealers ran on Saturns and Scions), and any transportation fee if it needs to be transported to your area.
 

RabbitGTI

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There's no such thing as MSRP for new ones, there's just the price (Tesla runs a no-haggle model, and with no dealers, there's nothing like the pinstriping scams that some dealers ran on Saturns and Scions), and any transportation fee if it needs to be transported to your area.
No-haggle = drop your pants, grab your ankles and brace yourself.
 

turbobrick240

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They just cut out the middleman. Somehow I don't picture the dealership that sold me my golf haggling with VWAG on the price they paid for the car.
 

2015vwgolfdiesel

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They just cut out the middleman. Somehow I don't picture the dealership that sold me my golf haggling with VWAG on the price they paid for the car.
Does the system work in reverse ? (VW)

Do dealers "strive" to gain volume intensives from VW ?

If so, (IMO), the Tulsa dealership just does not do the large discounts.

I see discounts as high as $7,600 discounts on 2017 Jetta via CARS.COM -- but not locally.
 

CraziFuzzy

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VeeDub, of course there are exceptions but to suggest that "many" EV buyers keep their EVs for the long haul really is a stretch. While shopping for an EV, most choose leasing over buying an EV for two main reasons:

1.) Lease payments on an EVs are artificially affordable. The manufacturer needs those CARB credits, and is willing to take a big loss per unit to obtain them. As an example, I've found leases for $30,000 Kia Soul EVs at $99 per month. The CEO of Fiat once said they lose $14,000 on every 500e they produce. https://insideevs.com/fiat-ceo-fiat-loses-14000-every-500e-sold/

2.) An EV's main traction battery has a finite lifespan. People don't want to get stuck with a degraded battery.

Leasing has lead to the proliferation of vehicles. That's not a stretch. In the last few years, the population in my city has had modest growth but there has been an explosion in both the number and size of car dealerships. I think that's a trend that's happening in other cities too. From an environmental point of view, I don't see that as a win.
I don't think a proliferation of vehicles is absolutely a negative thing. It depends on the reason for the proliferation.

The negative you attest to is the manufacturing costs, which yes, additional vehicles being produced would increase manufacturing costs (environmental and otherwise). However, manufacturing costs do need to be spread out over a vehicle's lifetime, and the operating costs (environmental and otherwise) of EV's is decidedly lower.

Now, on to the issue of MORE vehicles being owned/operated. This cost is a function of miles driven and the impact per mile. Simply having more cars out there being owned does not necessarily mean more miles being driven. My personal scenario, for instance, was ADDING an EV to the family fleet. That EV did not add a single mile to our annual driving - but it DID affect which vehicle we chose for a given task. All the around town miles the Fiat 500e is driven is miles the Armada and Azera (12 and 25 mpg, respectively) are not driven. This is decidedly a huge environmental positive from the usage load of the vehicle, even though it's an additional car added to my fleet.

Based on range anxiety that is still a real (marketing) problem, I think MOST EV's being purchased are in situations like mine - an additional car to an existing fleet of vehicles. However, more cars out there does NOT mean more miles driven, and as such, is not necessarily an absolute negative. Having more tools at one's disposal results in a higher likelihood of having exactly the right tool for the job, which results in a job being better performed because of it.
 

Oilerlord

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I don't know what kind of warranty Mercedes offers on the batteries, but Tesla has 8 years/unlimited miles on theirs *edit: On new cars, and excluding the 60 KW/hr battery(not sure if that applies to the model 3). A typical model S owner can expect to have about 90% capacity left at 150k miles. The good news is that lithium ion battery chemistry is constantly improving, and production costs/ consumer cost is dropping like a stone.

The battery warranty on for my 36 kWh pack is 8-years / 100K miles to 70% capacity. That does give me some comfort that Mercedes risk analysts / accountants probably consulted with Tesla engineers and figured there's little chance that they would have to spring for a battery replacement because the battery degraded to less than 70% of it's original capacity during the warranty period. The Model S 60 is also at 70% and 8 years, but at 125K miles. Larger battery models have "infinite mile" warranties.

Interesting that the Bolt EV has a larger 60 kWh battery with the same 8-year / 100K mile warranty but they will only replace it if it goes under 60% of original capacity.

I don't think you can quote the "typical" degradation numbers for the Model S because they vary between the size of the battery packs and other variables such as where they are driven & stored. Some are in hot conditions like Arizona while others are in more temperate states. Owners quote degradation of between 1% - 5% per year. It's all over the map.

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/battery-degradation-1
 

turbobrick240

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I don't think you can quote the "typical" degradation numbers for the Model S because they vary between the size of the battery packs and other variables such as where they are driven & stored. Some are in hot conditions like Arizona while others are in more temperate states. Owners quote degradation of between 1% - 5% per year. It's all over the map.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/battery-degradation-1
Average would have been a better term than typical. I was basing that off of the data points in the graph here:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-battery-life-what-the-data-show-so-far
 

Oilerlord

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I don't think a proliferation of vehicles is absolutely a negative thing. It depends on the reason for the proliferation.
I try not to frame arguments in absolutes because they seldom apply in real world scenarios like the one you listed above. Should we ban the selling of new cars? No. Should we all go out and buy a new car tomorrow? Of course not. Is the car you traded in going to be driven by someone else? Sure.

I'm simply stating that people who are concerned about GHG's, should recognize that GHG's are produced during the manufacturing of a new car, regardless of how it's fueled. Personally, I don't care if people lease a new car every 3 years but I do question those that do so in the name of saving the planet. In terms of a personal carbon footprint scorecard, the person that buys one fuel efficient car, and maintains it over the course of 10 years
is being more environmentally responsible than the person who, in 10 years, has ordered their 4th new car.

I don't think that the good environmental practice of "Reduce" is limited only to using less gasoline.
 

Oilerlord

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turbobrick240

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You quoted 150,000 miles. The data from the link you posted was in KM.
From the report:
"The data appears to show that capacity remains between 90 and 95 percent, on average, even at 150,000 km (93,000 miles)."

Look at the graph- the last data point is at 240,000 km , which is pretty darn close to 150k miles. That car had nearly 92% capacity remaining. The last several data points show over 90% capacity at over 220,000 km.
 

Oilerlord

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Look at the graph- the last data point is at 240,000 km , which is pretty darn close to 150k miles. That car had nearly 92% capacity remaining. The last several data points show over 90% capacity at over 220,000 km.
Turbo, are you really going to stand behind a statement based on one car, in one chart you found, that the "average" Model S owner won't lose more than 10% of their battery capacity after 150K miles?

From the link you provided, there simply isn't enough data to support that conclusion. The findings were in KM. You misread them as miles. It's an honest mistake. Let's leave it at that.
 

turbobrick240

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Turbo, are you really going to stand behind a statement based on one car, in one chart you found, that the "average" Model S owner won't lose more than 10% of their battery capacity after 150K miles?
From the link you provided, there simply isn't enough data to support that conclusion. The findings were in KM. You misread them as miles. It's an honest mistake. Let's leave it at that.
It wasn't a mistake. 240k km is close enough to 150k miles for me to extrapolate. I agree, one data point isn't enough to make a conclusive determination(which is why I mentioned the last three data points), but the trend line is plain to see. Sometimes you just have to work with what data is available. Data trumps speculation.
 

Chris

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...I'm simply stating that people who are concerned about GHG's, should recognize that GHG's are produced during the manufacturing of a new car, regardless of how it's fueled. Personally, I don't care if people lease a new car every 3 years but I do question those that do so in the name of saving the planet. In terms of a personal carbon footprint scorecard, the person that buys one fuel efficient car, and maintains it over the course of 10 years is being more environmentally responsible than the person who, in 10 years, has ordered their 4th new car.
I don't think that the good environmental practice of "Reduce" is limited only to using less gasoline.
It's not as if these cars are being discarded at that rate though (by this, I mean they continue in the general on the road fleet, rather than being pushed off of a cliff).
Does their entry into the general fleet cause more cars to be discarded?

I agree that the person who owns the vehicle over the long haul is being more personally economical but I'm not sure that translates into environmentally responsible, particularly.
 

Oilerlord

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I agree that the person who owns the vehicle over the long haul is being more personally economical but I'm not sure that translates into environmentally responsible, particularly.
Ok guys, I give up. You win.

Let's make the planet a better place by accelerating the production of more cars. Millions of them. Why not mandate 2 year leases instead of 3? That way, we'd have even more lease returns sitting on dealer lots. Not enough room for all those cars? Simple...build larger dealerships all across the country. More cars = clear win for the environment. Makes perfect sense. Not sure why I'm wasting my time with rain barrels and planting trees.

I have no idea why I'm researching the refurbishment my EV's battery to extend the overall service life of the car - when the obvious answer for lowering global GHG's is just replacing it with a brand new two-ton lump of steel, glass, and petrochemicals every three years.
 

bhtooefr

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Ultimately, if a highly efficient vehicle is replacing an inefficient vehicle, the payback period ends up being within the service life.

If an EV is replacing another EV, that's wasteful... but then the used EV might replace another inefficient vehicle making it flip back to not being wasteful again.
 

El Dobro

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Ultimately, if a highly efficient vehicle is replacing an inefficient vehicle, the payback period ends up being within the service life.

If an EV is replacing another EV, that's wasteful... but then the used EV might replace another inefficient vehicle making it flip back to not being wasteful again.
Those that can't afford them when new can buy them when used. Win, win.
 

wxman

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According to GREET, replacing a Golf TDI with 60,000 miles on it (i.e., scrapping it) with a new eGolf would take 6,200 miles to offset the NOx emissions from manufacturing the gGolf, 1,600,000 miles to offset VOC emissions, 400,000 miles to offset the CO emissions, 39,000 miles to offset the GHG emissions, never offset the PM emissions, and never offset the SOx emissions.

This was based on the average of the emissions that WVU measured in their "real-world" driving study of the 2012 VW Jetta TDI (Thompson et al., "In-Use Emissions Testing of Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles in the United States." International Council on Clean Transportation Report, May 15, 2014).
 
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