Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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Pineapplez

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Hey guys I'm new here. So the whole new thing seems to be electric vehicles, but I was wondering if there is a way lower or extinguish emissions using a certain exhaust system. As far as I know the algae biofuel manufacturers create less pollutants than the electric manufacturers.

Pretty much trying to sup up my 2000 jetta tdi without screwing up the air.

Thanks guys
 

bhtooefr

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The first question is... what algae biofuel manufacturers?

Algal biodiesel has been a technology that's always been 5 years away for, what, 15 years now?

In any case, the big emissions to worry about with diesel are particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. Most of the performance mods for TDIs advance timing, reduce or eliminate EGR activity, and have higher combustion temperatures, all of which can massively increase nitrogen oxide emissions. And, with increased fueling, particulate matter emissions can increase (not necessarily, though - and the same things I mentioned that increase NOx emissions also decrease PM emissions).

More modern engines have countermeasures like particulate filters and selective catalytic reduction systems, as well as simply improved combustion technology. However, swapping one of those into a Mk4 would be an extremely daunting prospect.

There is a retrofit particulate filter meant for the ALH for the German market, but you wouldn't be improving performance with it, and reliability was likely not even concerned, merely legal compliance for entering urban cores where Euro 4 compliance was necessary.
 

n1das

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Only the Chiron exists, while this "2020" Tesla Roadster is still in an early stage of development.
Working protos of the new roadster already exist, unveiled last night in Los Angeles. Very cool. :cool: Me want, but will never be able to afford. If only I had a spare $250k laying around and burning a hole in my pocket.

Tesla Truck unveiling, with a surprise: (9 minute condensed version)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5n9xafjynJA&feature=youtu.be

Tesla roadster unveiling test drive:
0-60 in 1.9 seconds, 0-100 in 4.2 seconds, 1/4 mile in 8.9 seconds, 620 mile range, top speed > 250 MPH. Elon won't say what the actual top speed is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAQGBxtLSWU&feature=youtu.be

:cool:
 
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GoFaster

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Interesting but call me a skeptic on some of the claims.

Megawatt-rated charging hardware that is safe and manageable for a normal person to handle (in all weather conditions!) is going to be ... interesting.

Back-of-notepad calculations suggest that the 500 mi / 800 km range might be achievable under exceptionally ideal conditions with bare-mimimum 400 kWh on the low side; Tesla claims "less than 2 kWh/mile" which means the battery could be as much as 1000 kWh. I'm sure that if it were less than 1 kWh/mile they would have said so ... so move the bare minimum to 500 kWh and could be as much as 1000 kWh. Let's guess 800 kWh.

80% charge of that in 30 minutes requires 1.3 MW ... That requires both a lot of amps AND a lot of volts.

A state of the art lithium battery is somewhere around 250 W.h / kg, so that 800 kWh battery will weigh 3200 kg ... that's actually not as bad as it could be. This is for the cell only; the pack weighs about as much again. So the weight of the battery is up there, but it could be worse.
 

turbobrick240

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I'm sure the Tesla semi is no lightweight, but you actually want quite a bit of weight in a tractor. And most of the weight is low and over the drive axles where you want it. If Tesla can deliver on those numbers, it will revolutionize the trucking industry.
I can understand the skepticism, but then again, plenty of folks were skeptical that a large rocket booster could be landed with pinpoint accuracy. Now it seems par for the course.
 

GoFaster

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What it's going to take to recharge it is the big question mark. I'm sure the early adopters will build their own dedicated charging stations and use the truck in such a manner that it never needs to be charged anywhere else.
 

nwdiver

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80% charge of that in 30 minutes requires 1.3 MW ... That requires both a lot of amps AND a lot of volts.
If I recall my electrical training correctly you can go up to 600v and 2000A and stay in the same classification as the current superchargers. You'd need thicker wires or cooling. That's ~1.2MW. They'd need a DC-DC converter onboard to ensure the Truck is fed with ~600v and not just the low SOC voltage of the pack.

The substation at truck stops would need be MASSIVE.

The best use would be distribution center to store. The truck charges at the distribution center and charges while unloading at the store... you never have to detour to get fuel.
 
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bhtooefr

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I'd guess that Tesla's probably aiming for 800 V nominal, which is rapidly being seen as the future of DC fast charging. (And, a lot of new DC fast chargers being supplied to the rest of the automotive market are 800 V capable, now, to manage the currents at play better.)

That said, Tesla is planning on using solar and battery storage to power the Megachargers, which will at least reduce load on the substation.

And, here's the Megacharger port: https://cdn.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/tesla-semi-megacharger-charging-port.jpg

Looks like 8 current-carrying pins versus the 2 of Supercharging. So, a Supercharger can do 120 kW per car IIRC, at 375 V nominal. Raising things to 800 V nominal and quadrupling current gets you to 1024 kW - at that rate, you'd get 512 kWh to go 400 miles, or 640 kWh to go 500 miles.
 

Oilerlord

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If Tesla can deliver on those numbers, it will revolutionize the trucking industry.

I can understand the skepticism, but then again, plenty of folks were skeptical that a large rocket booster could be landed with pinpoint accuracy. Now it seems par for the course.
Actually, I had no doubt that SpaceX would eventually figure that one out. With the combination of enough money and the brightest minds, pretty much anything is possible.

With Tesla, the key to their products seems to revolve around the word "if". They quoted a savings at "day one" of $0.25 per mile. Does that include the cost of the truck? Is that over 1 million miles? What if the cost of electricity is over the quoted $0.07 cents?

The obvious question is: What is the cost of the truck? It's anyone's guess.
Interesting that they are taking $5,000 deposits, but the very basic question of cost is described by Musk as "Tesla is expensive stuff". What does that mean? That may fly with the Tesla faithful waiting to buy the new roadster, but not with a logistics company with a fleet of thousands of trucks.

So, to your point, the numbers matter.
 

turbobrick240

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With Tesla, the key to their products seems to revolve around the word "if". They quoted a savings at "day one" of $0.25 per mile. Does that include the cost of the truck? Is that over 1 million miles? What if the cost of electricity is over the quoted $0.07 cents?
The obvious question is: What is the cost of the truck? It's anyone's guess.
Interesting that they are taking $5,000 deposits, but the very basic question of cost is described by Musk as "Tesla is expensive stuff". What does that mean? That may fly with the Tesla faithful waiting to buy the new roadster, but not with a logistics company with a fleet of thousands of trucks.
So, to your point, the numbers matter.
I agree, the cost of the truck is a pretty critical piece of missing information. I just assume it will have to be somewhat competitively priced, if it's intended to be successful. I suspect the businesses that have already put orders in were given a ballpark price on the truck. Based solely on the conniption fits guys like Bob Lutz are having following the reveal, I'd say it was a brilliant bit of marketing. :D
 
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nwdiver

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I agree, the cost of the truck is a pretty critical piece of missing information. I just assume it will have to be somewhat competitively priced, if it's intended to be successful. I suspect the businesses that have already put orders in were given a ballpark price on the truck. Based solely on the conniption fits guys like Bob Lutz are having following the reveal, I'd say it was a brilliant bit of marketing. :D
The truck was briefly discussed on 'The Energy Gang'. Jigar Shah an energy analyst pointed out that in some ways Tesla is better positioned to produce a Class 8 Semi than a mass market sedan. Class 8 trucks aren't built on the same scale as a 3-series car which is where Tesla is currently struggling to catch up.
 

Oilerlord

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I agree, the cost of the truck is a pretty critical piece of missing information. I just assume it will have to be somewhat competitively priced, if it's intended to be successful. I suspect the businesses that have already put orders in were given a ballpark price on the truck. Based solely on the conniption fits guys like Bob Lutz are having following the reveal, I'd say it was a brilliant bit of marketing. :D
Hey, it's 5000 bucks per truck for XYZ logistics company to wait & see if Tesla can actually make the magic happen in 2019-2020...and if they can't, it's fully refundable. It's a pretty small no-risk investment for a trucking company looking for an edge on their competition. At the very least, Tesla may develop technologies that may help existing diesel fleets become more efficient. That's a win for everyone, and on several levels. Bob Lutz can go pound sand.
 

bhtooefr

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To be fair, if they go bankrupt, they're going to be pretty low on the list of creditors to get paid back.

Still, popping $5000 a truck in for a pilot-scale investment is nothing to a big truck buyer, I suspect.
 

nwdiver

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To be fair, if they go bankrupt, they're going to be pretty low on the list of creditors to get paid back.

Still, popping $5000 a truck in for a pilot-scale investment is nothing to a big truck buyer, I suspect.
I think companies that made reservations probably got their money back in the form of free press...
 

kjclow

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We have an LTL transfer station across the street from my office. I'd guess that at any time of the day, there are probably two dozen tractors sitting on the lot. Figure that's probably 10% of their total fleet. Let's assume 240 tractors on a 10% per year replacement schedule. Musk wants a $5000 hold payment per tractor, so that's $120,000 that is no longer available for replacing tractors or maintenance on the other tractors. Unless Mush is paying interest on that money, it looks like a substantial drain on the cash value of the company.
 

CraziFuzzy

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Interesting but call me a skeptic on some of the claims.

Megawatt-rated charging hardware that is safe and manageable for a normal person to handle (in all weather conditions!) is going to be ... interesting.

Back-of-notepad calculations suggest that the 500 mi / 800 km range might be achievable under exceptionally ideal conditions with bare-mimimum 400 kWh on the low side; Tesla claims "less than 2 kWh/mile" which means the battery could be as much as 1000 kWh. I'm sure that if it were less than 1 kWh/mile they would have said so ... so move the bare minimum to 500 kWh and could be as much as 1000 kWh. Let's guess 800 kWh.

80% charge of that in 30 minutes requires 1.3 MW ... That requires both a lot of amps AND a lot of volts.

A state of the art lithium battery is somewhere around 250 W.h / kg, so that 800 kWh battery will weigh 3200 kg ... that's actually not as bad as it could be. This is for the cell only; the pack weighs about as much again. So the weight of the battery is up there, but it could be worse.
The charging cables are not likely all that cumbersome (though obviously moreso than current supercharger cables). That said, when dealing with only charging one model of vehicle, in one place, a suspended cable would make things quite easy to deal with. Remember, these are not being used by 'the public', these are going to be used primarily by trained fleet operators.

I see these trucks being used for routine last leg delivery routes, pushing 200-400 miles/day, where they'd still only be charged back at the distribution center overnight in most cases. I picture the local walmart or target distribution centers that cover 30 or 40 stores loving these things.
 

VeeDubTDI

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So the Tesla semi pricing has been announced at $150,000 for the 300-mile range truck and $180,000 for the 500-mile range truck. Deposits are now $20,000. If you want a Founders Series truck, it's $200,000 up front.

With new diesel semis being in the ~$120,000 range, Tesla is definitely looking at revolutionizing trucking. I honestly expected it to cost north of $250,000.

Regarding charging infrastructure for these beasts, I suspect most of their charging will happen overnight at ~100 kW speeds. The 1~ MW "Megachargers" really only need to be used for quick stops on long-haul runs and on trucks that see round-the-clock operation. Most trucks are parked overnight, allowing for plenty of time to charge at more reasonable speeds.
 
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turbocharged798

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Our infrastructure is no way capable of handling that. 100KW is about 5-10 times the capacity of residential mains feeders. 1MW and you are looking at a local power plant....

I guess we will mount a "few" solar panels and it will provide all the that power. :rolleyes:
 

migbro

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Our infrastructure is no way capable of handling that. 100KW is about 5-10 times the capacity of residential mains feeders. 1MW and you are looking at a local power plant....

I guess we will mount a "few" solar panels and it will provide all the that power. :rolleyes:
Yup, the infrastructure for fast charging any more than a relative handful of EVs has not been thought through at all. Forget about 1 MW, 300 EVs recharging at 50kW and you're looking at 15 MW.

It's a fantasy, not going to happen.
 

turbobrick240

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It's already happening. Look at how quickly Tesla is building out the supercharger network. They just completed the worlds largest battery power storage facility in Australia. Renewables will continue to grow in market share of the energy sector. The transition will happen gradually enough for the grid to adapt and add capacity.
 

aja8888

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He could probably build a plant there faster than in the US due to the length of time it will take to get air emissions permits (up to 5 years for a major source). Even if Tesla finds a suitable location soon, construction would be a couple of years out and then the workforce has to be hired, trained, tested, etc.

I spent 1/2 my career in heavy manufacturing and dreaming up a new vehicle and getting it to market after going through all the gov and OSHA certifications is no cake walk. There is also the issues of raw material procurement, proving tooling (which Tesla has problems with) and dealer networks, and then some.

I wish him luck and lots of free or borrowed money.
 

CraziFuzzy

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Our infrastructure is no way capable of handling that. 100KW is about 5-10 times the capacity of residential mains feeders. 1MW and you are looking at a local power plant....

I guess we will mount a "few" solar panels and it will provide all the that power. :rolleyes:
pretty sure they aren't targeting residential users.
 

migbro

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It's already happening. Look at how quickly Tesla is building out the supercharger network. They just completed the worlds largest battery power storage facility in Australia. Renewables will continue to grow in market share of the energy sector. The transition will happen gradually enough for the grid to adapt and add capacity.
That's the conventional wisdom, for sure.

It's all a fantasy however. The numbers just do not work for anything other than a very small number of EVs.

South Australia is the world's renewable energy crash test dummy and the Tesla battery, while an interesting technological feat, is abject stupidity.

But I know I won't convince anyone who sees it your way.
 

turbobrick240

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That's the conventional wisdom, for sure.

South Australia is the world's renewable energy crash test dummy and the Tesla battery, while an interesting technological feat, is abject stupidity.

But I know I won't convince anyone who sees it your way.

That's probably true. Feel free to review this thread ten years from now. You may not be happy with the number of EV's on the road, but you won't be imagining them. :)
 

migbro

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That's probably true. Feel free to review this thread ten years from now. You may not be happy with the number of EV's on the road, but you won't be imagining them. :)
I remember a discussion here five or six years ago where I said gas would be $2/gallon again before it would be $6/gallon. The response was guffaws at the time.

Elon Musk will very likely be able to continue to pick the taxpayers' pocket for some time. The Western world is falling in love with Communism, that's for sure.

But prediction is hard, particularly about the future.

Everyone Is Revising Their Electric Vehicle Forecasts Upward—Except Automakers


"There's one group of companies that is far less optimistic about electric cars: automakers. According to BNEF, the world's biggest auto manufacturers are only planning to sell a combined 8 million electric cars per year by 2030."
 
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turbobrick240

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