NMS Passat Future Values

I have a 'big' spreadsheet where I am calculating Buyback and Fix Settlement scenerios.

Basically: If I did the Buyback today, the Passat cost me $182/month (excluding fuel, maintenance, taxes, ect)

If I do the Buyback in Sept 2018 that value is $145.

If I take the fix settlement, the vehicle needs to be worth more than $10,500 at Aug 2019, to maintain the $145/month cost.

Is $10,500 a reasonable future private party value for a TDI SE with 155,000 miles?

Additionally if one sets the future value of $5000, then one would have to drive the vehicle for an additional 37 months (Sept 2022) and have accumulated 192,000 miles, to maintain the $145/month cost.

Thoughts?

P.S. Final item to consider. I save $100/month in unrealized fuel costs between vehicle Option 1: 45mpg diesel vs vehicle Option 2: 17mpg diesel. based on the number of miles I drive in a month.

I would urge you to re-evaluate your calculations into a $/mile figure as mileage will be the greater determining factor.

No I do not think your 7 year old car will be valued at approximately 1/3 of original sticker when it has 150k. I would hazard that your best bang for the buck will be buyback and purchase of a repaired model.

Your best bang for the buck would be to have the "fix" performed, take the several thousand blood money, continue to drive and take care of the car indefinitely, and you'll get all your money's worth and then some.

And the whole time you'll be driving something that is no longer available, and will likely be the last of its kind ever until some better technology comes along and eclipses it, which may take 20+ years.

oilhammer said:

Your best bang for the buck would be to have the "fix" performed, take the several thousand blood money, continue to drive and take care of the car indefinitely, and you'll get all your money's worth and then some.

And the whole time you'll be driving something that is no longer available, and will likely be the last of its kind ever until some better technology comes along and eclipses it, which may take 20+ years.

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+1 on this! Exactly what I am doing, and down the road my Passat will be looked at like one of those rare Toyota truck diesels

jrm said:

+1 on this! Exactly what I am doing, and down the road my Passat will be looked at like one of those rare Toyota truck diesels

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I had one of those! Sold it for not much less than it cost new, 30 years later! Guy flew in from another state to get it!

My opinion: I think the above posts are totally valid, assuming you're going to drive the car "forever."

If you're thinking of trading at 150k miles, I think the actual $$ value of the car would be lower than you would want.

I have my doubts as to the long-term integrity of the NMS Passat. Comparing the NMS Passat to the early diesel Toyota truck is more than a bit of a stretch...my opinion, of course.

I changed from my 2002 Jetta to my 2015 Passat a year ago knowing full-well that there was some situation brewing. But I really did not know what it was all about. That I only learned after I bought the Passat because with the 2002 Jetta it did not affect me.

I bought it because I figured that VW may never ever sell a Diesel in North America again and I wanted one to replace the Jetta.

There will be two situations happening, either the car dies on me or I will drop dead before the car does. In either case I'm happy with my Passat.

Thanks all.

Bottom line:
1. The Buy back price is so generous with respect to used car values.
2. The wise money is always drive something until the suspension rusts off the body or the transmission takes a crap. (not likely with NMS).

It's just that boredom sets in and every where one turns there are newer, younger hotter models trying to steal your money....

properly deleted the NMS should be ultra reliable up to 500K, heck I just turned 300K on my civic, input shaft bearing is making some noise, filled it with 20w50 motorcycle oil and its quiet again, planning to get a used trans at carpart dot com and throw that in while I rebuild my original this summer to keep as a spare

Calculate what happens if the car is involved in an accident in 8 months and the car is totaled. Risk management is always a fickle beast.

The longevity of the CR engines haven't been documented as well as the ALH, even with just a DPF delete, there is scores of sensors, wiring and other things that will leave you short of any sort of milestone with out shelling out quite a bit of coin. Let alone the massive amount of cheapening out VW did on the NMS platform adds a giant unknown factor compared to previous gen VWs.

To put a number such as 500K or 300K isn't as easy as "its a diesel, it's not even broken in at 200K", the cheap cams they are running could be sleeper issues that may not surface until few 100K down the pipe, toss in a random oil pump failure or other things numbers aren't that easy to come up to.

oilhammer said:

And the whole time you'll be driving something that is no longer available, and will likely be the last of its kind ever until some better technology comes along and eclipses it, which may take 20+ years.

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Yup, no TDI in 2018 Passat specs. If we're lucky, TDIs will debut in the fully autonomous, MQB-hover model.

Resale vales depend heavily on who buys the car (wholesale versus retail), car condition, local market factors at the time of sale (such as fuel prices), and the seller's ability to effectively market the car and negotiate the selling price. Because of these factors it's difficult to predict what you'll get for the car.

Cars are an expense, not an investment. And when you're driving something like a newer TDI, you're already spending more money on transportation than you need to. One major repair that's not covered by warranty will throw all your numbers off. If you really want to save money sell it back as soon as possible and buy a used Kia or Hyundai. If you want to enjoy what you drive then drive it and don't spend any more time with the spreadsheet.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

<snip>
Cars are an expense, not an investment. <snip>

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The above can never be repeated too much, since there are many people that appear to believe that a car is going to be part of their retirement portfolio. Unless that car is a pristine 1928 Bugatti Type 37, that is simply not the case. A contemporary car bought for transportation is a hole into which money is shoveled.
As far as what one should do in the immediate term, cases vary. I have read of people turning in their cars for buyback ASAP for whom that is clearly the best course, given their situation. I can also understand diesel "die-hards" taking the fix, along with those who just don't want to incur another new car purchase. On the other hand, those counting on driving the car 3-500K miles are obviously in the category of risk management.
We're doing the buyback on our '13 Passat, and doing risk management to the extent that we're not doing the buyback until the end of the designated period. Our car has been registered with VW for the buyback, all that remains is to choose the date; meantime, we drive the car as usual. We run the risk of an accident that totals the car, and we thereby must take a lower settlement from the insurance company. That risk is acceptable to us, because we would run the same risk with a new car if we turned the VW in today. For others, as I have said, there may well be other considerations that dictate another course of action.
We are not old-time diesel drivers. This has been our first (and evidently our last) TDI, and we have enjoyed it. But we're not married to compression ignition, and VW's settlement will give us back only a few thousand less than we paid for the car new. In our case, it's an offer we can't refuse.

jrm said:

properly deleted the NMS should be ultra reliable up to 500K, heck I just turned 300K on my civic, input shaft bearing is making some noise, filled it with 20w50 motorcycle oil and its quiet again, planning to get a used trans at carpart dot com and throw that in while I rebuild my original this summer to keep as a spare

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That seems incredibly optimistic to me unless you're a cross-country pilot car driver for oversized loads.