Timing belt: Mean time to failure

YellowSpoon

Member
Joined
Jan 11, 2010
Location
USA
TDI
1999 Jetta
With at 2002 Golf TDI, it's been 60k miles since I last change the timing belt. It would cost as much to put in a new timing belt as the car is worth. I'm considering just driving it until the belt fails and have it towed to the scrap yard.

Now, they recommend new belts every 60k miles, but the average time to failure must be higher. So ... If I roll the dice, how much longer can I expect the car to run without changing the timing belt?
 

Windex

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 1, 2006
Location
Cambridge
TDI
05 B5V 01E FRF
The answer to your question depends on environmental factors, number of miles per year, driving style etc.

I've seen timing belts fail at 6 years on an ALH, and have seen others at ten years (low miles) with the same belt. I would say that both of those are outliers.

I would peg the average estimated danger zone for an aged belt at 7-8 years, but anything after 5 you are rolling the dice.

If you learn the procedure, and fabricate some inexpensive tools, one can do an ALH belt for not much more than the cost of parts....
 

Lightflyer1

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Location
Round Rock, Texas
TDI
2015 Beetle tdi dsg
Why not just sell the car now while it is still running and give someone else a chance with it? You can move on to whatever you want next. Why drive it till it is ruined and no good for anyone? A 2002 Golf TDI should have some good interest in it if it is in any kind of decent condition. Surely you could find a buyer for $800 or so. Or is the general condition so bad no one would want it? Auto or manual trans? Are you near Texas?
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Location
outside St Louis, MO
TDI
There are just too many to list....
Why not just sell the car now while it is still running and give someone else a chance with it? You can move on to whatever you want next. Why drive it till it is ruined and no good for anyone? A 2002 Golf TDI should have some good interest in it if it is in any kind of decent condition. Surely you could find a buyer for $800 or so. Or is the general condition so bad no one would want it? Auto or manual trans? Are you near Texas?

This. 100x this.

Seriously, don't ruin a good car.
 

belome

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 8, 2010
Location
Mid MI
TDI
2002 Jetta GLS TDI 5-speed
it's been 60k miles since I last change the timing belt.
It really depends on what you put in it and when. Most replacement kits were designated to go 100k miles. Heck, your 02 from the factory was an 80k kit.
 

CasaEd

Veteran Member
Joined
Mar 18, 2017
Location
Portugal
TDI
VW Passat TDi B4, VW Passat TDi B4 GL, VW Passat B3 PD AWX Conversion
Any timing belt should be changed at 5 years regardless of mileage,
and it's a cheaper option than a possible engine rebuild as a result of a broken belt.
 

James & Son

Veteran Member
Joined
Oct 10, 2008
Location
Maryhill, Ontario, Canada
TDI
2006 Jetta
Any timing belt should be changed at 5 years regardless of mileage,
and it's a cheaper option than a possible engine rebuild as a result of a broken belt.
I think heat would deteriorate a timing belt. So being in southern Ontario, I am counting on less heat stress.

It is likely I will have 105000 miles and 6 to 7 years on the belt by June of this year when I will have time to change it.

It will be the second diesel geek kit. Hope I make it.
 

Nevada_TDI

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Aug 17, 2008
Location
Reno, sort of...
TDI
2001 Jetta TDI
I also hope the belt makes it;:there once was a commercial here in the lower 49 it was about oil filters, but the gist was "pay me now, or pay me later." The $300.00 USD the belt kits cost are a lot cheaper than doing the belt AND the head too, by waiting too long.
 

vincej

Veteran Member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Location
Calgary
TDI
2014 Golf Wagon
I've changed a few belts on those little Fiat convertible sports cars with the 1850 DOHC. When the head came back from repair I would put it and a new belt on and the shop would sell the car complete with a new paint job to the next happy customer.

I hope I won't get into the same situation with my 2013 TDI that has over 155000 kms on it now.
 
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