Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

GoFaster · Dec 16, 2017

nwdiver said:
The EV1 and RAV4 should have been followed by other EV models. GM cost us >10 years of EV development.

High-performance lithium batteries of a scale sufficient to power a vehicle did not exist back then. It's only now that lithium batteries have been developed to a point where they can be used to power a motor vehicle in a manner competitive with combustion engines in some applications.

People will only buy new technology when it is demonstrably better than the old technology in their own day-to-day lives. Short-range electric cars did not sell back in the 1990s, and they still don't sell today.

Following up the EV1 at the time would have simply continued the commercial disaster that the EV1 already was, and that would have been a mistake.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/...ack-up-against-the-current-crop-of-electrics/ (note; article was from 2013 ... and even this was near the beginning of lithium-based batteries for vehicle propulsion).

I am not convinced even today that there is enough supply of the various not-exactly-common materials that EVs need in fairly large quantities, in order for lithium-battery-and-PM-motor EVs to fully replace everything we've got.

Rome wasn't built in one day ... and it doesn't have to be.

nwdiver · Dec 16, 2017

GoFaster said:
People will only buy new technology when it is demonstrably better than the old technology in their own day-to-day lives. Short-range electric cars did not sell back in the 1990s, and they still don't sell today.

The EV1 and LEAF have very similar specs. Same Range. Same Charging time. Nissan has sold ~250k LEAFs.

I would imagine that the Billions of dollars car manufactures are now pumping into Battery R&D is going to help accelerate things a bit. It would have been nice if they had started doing that in earnest ~15 years ago.

El Dobro · Dec 16, 2017

Elon Musk and the EV1.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...n-musk-started-tesla/articleshow/59071716.cms

compu_85 · Dec 16, 2017

When GM killed off the EV1, they had just bought a company doing great things with NiMH batteries. If they had gotten that tech into the EV1 (EV1.5? heh) the rage would have increased with weight going down, and the batteries would have lasted much longer.

I agree that it was a failure on GM's part to give up that 10 year advantage they had on every other maker.

-J

turbocharged798 · Dec 16, 2017

nwdiver said:
Fair enough. I'll be more specific. Every NON-COMPLIANCE EV. Every EV offered outside CA. The Volt and Bolt would not exist if not from the roadster.

Only Nissan showed interest in EVs. Toyota and VW showed open contempt for them on several occasions.

That could have been avoided if they kept developing the EV1. GMs financial troubles were exacerbated by a sales drop of low mpg cars when the price of oil surged.

Nonsense. Suburbans, Pickups, and Hummers is what made GM money those years, The EVs were a loss. If GM kept going with the EV1 they would have bankrupted even sooner.

nwdiver · Dec 16, 2017

turbocharged798 said:
Nonsense. Suburbans, Pickups, and Hummers is what made GM money those years, The EVs were a loss. If GM kept going with the EV1 they would have bankrupted even sooner.

History disagrees.

'The U.S. automakers were more heavily affected by the crisis than their foreign counterparts, such as Toyota. Following the 2000s energy crisis, the U.S. automakers failed to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles as opposed to the high-profit sport utility vehicles that were popular in the late 1990s and early 2000s which led to excess inventory and undesirable product. Since the automotive crisis abated, all three American automakers have increased sales of vehicles and have posted a profit.'

I remember it well... the dodge dealership near my house was practically giving away trucks...

Oilerlord · Dec 16, 2017

turbobrick240 said:
Musk is working very hard to prevent humanity from destroying itself. He has revolutionized the space industry, and is revolutionizing the auto industry. Given some time and perspective, I think you'll come to appreciate his influence on society.

I do appreciate he has influence, but, put in perspective, the products he's selling (supposedly to prevent humanity from destroying itself) can only be afforded by the wealthy 1%.

VW brought us the "peoples" car. It was a small, fuel efficient car that a large portion of the population living in the industrialized world could afford. That was a revolution. In 1950, it was priced at $1,280. Adjusted for inflation, in today's dollars - it's a car that would only cost $12,290.

Using that example, if the Model 3 was a $15,000 car, we'd truly have a revolution on our hands. Instead, we simply have another car that only the wealthy can afford. It would have been nice to see Model 3's proliferate in Delhi just as they no doubt will in Newport Beach.

I know the answer coming is: "Wait, have faith, Elon will make it happen". Sorry guys, I have my doubts. Mining the world of it's copper & lithium seems to be a dubious way of saving the planet from ourselves.

turbobrick240 · Dec 16, 2017

Oilerlord said:
VW brought us the "peoples" car. It was a small, fuel efficient car that a large portion of the population living in the industrialized world could afford. That was a revolution. In 1950, it was priced at $1,280. Adjusted for inflation, in today's dollars - it's a car that would only cost $12,290.

The type 1 was/is a truly fantastic car (despite its dark origins). Unfortunately, cheap economy cars just don't have the sex appeal they did at one time (at least in the wealthy western world). Musk is bright enough to know that he had to make EV's desirable first. Cheap can come a bit later.

aja8888 · Dec 16, 2017

turbobrick240 said:
The type 1 was/is a truly fantastic car (despite its dark origins). Unfortunately, cheap economy cars just don't have the sex appeal they did at one time (at least in the wealthy western world). Musk is bright enough to know that he had to make EV's desirable first. Cheap can come a bit later.

For 99% of the driving population, cars don't have sex appeal at all and the owners don't care. They are merely for point A to point B transportation.

VeeDubTDI · Dec 16, 2017

Oilerlord said:
I do appreciate he has influence, but, put in perspective, the products he's selling (supposedly to prevent humanity from destroying itself) can only be afforded by the wealthy 1%.

VW brought us the "peoples" car. It was a small, fuel efficient car that a large portion of the population living in the industrialized world could afford. That was a revolution. In 1950, it was priced at $1,280. Adjusted for inflation, in today's dollars - it's a car that would only cost $12,290.

Using that example, if the Model 3 was a $15,000 car, we'd truly have a revolution on our hands. Instead, we simply have another car that only the wealthy can afford. It would have been nice to see Model 3's proliferate in Delhi just as they no doubt will in Newport Beach.

I know the answer coming is: "Wait, have faith, Elon will make it happen". Sorry guys, I have my doubts. Mining the world of it's copper & lithium seems to be a dubious way of saving the planet from ourselves.

Model S and X can be afforded by more than 1% of the population. Assuming a sale price of $100,000, a family would need to make $200,000, which is more like 7% of U.S. households. Still the top tier, but not as exaggerated as your statistic of 1% would suggest.

Using the 20/4/10 rule of car affordability, a $35,000 Model 3 would be affordable to households making $72,000 and up. That's about 40% of U.S. households. A reasonably optioned $45,000 Model 3 would be affordable to households making $92,000 or more. That's about 30% of U.S. households.

And that's just new Tesla vehicles. Used vehicles will be available to people with lower incomes. In addition, many of the major auto makers are coming out with affordable EVs of their own - EVs with 200+ mile ranges, not the little city cars that you and I currently own. If they start at $25,000, that makes them affordable to households making $50,000 or more, or about 57% of U.S. households.

To put these numbers in perspective, a $15,000 base model car (Versa Note, Yaris, whatever) would require an annual household income of nearly $40,000. For the sake of discussion, let's round down to $35,000, which makes it affordable to 70% of U.S. households. More importantly, it means that 30% of U.S. households cannot reasonably afford to buy a new vehicle.

This is also looking about five years out. Beyond that, I expect that we'll see even less expensive electric vehicles. As GoFaster said, Rome wasn't built in a day.

turbobrick240 · Dec 16, 2017

aja8888 said:
For 99% of the driving population, cars don't have sex appeal at all and the owners don't care. They are merely for point A to point B transportation.

If that were true, we'd all be driving Toyota Corollas or Nissan Versas. I actually grew up in one of the rare households where utility and economy were the only real concern when buying a car. I can tell you the sex appeal of a Renault LeCar is pretty limited.

GoFaster · Dec 16, 2017

nwdiver said:
The EV1 and LEAF have very similar specs. Same Range. Same Charging time. Nissan has sold ~250k LEAFs.

But not the same passenger space and cargo volume. The Leaf as it is (was) couldn't have been built with that passenger space, cargo volume, range, etc using 1990s battery technology. And the first-generation Leaf is a short-range niche-market turd that lacks thermal control of its batteries, and suffers as a result. 250,000 units over 7 years is about 35,000 per year ... that's not mass-market!

Pushing new technology into the market before the bugs are sufficiently out of it tends to taint public opinion for MUCH longer than it takes for the technology to actually get sorted out. Lots of people won't buy electric cars because they worry about how long the batteries will last. Guess where that worry comes from ...

On a related note, a buddy of mine just signed up for a 3 year lease on a Kia Soul EV, and he's going to bring it over to show me tomorrow.

VeeDubTDI · Dec 16, 2017

Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand:

MONTREAL, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Canada's biggest province, Ontario, will introduce a new rebate program worth up to C$75,000 for buyers of electric trucks, in a move that could boost domestic purchases of models by Tesla Inc and rivals like China's BYD, a government spokesman said ahead of a Thursday announcement.

The program will offer buyers rebates of up to 60 percent of the incremental purchase cost of an electric truck, compared with an equivalent diesel vehicle, up to a cap of C$75,000 per vehicle, according to documents seen by Reuters...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ontario-introduce-rebates-boost-electric-160000328.html

VeeDubTDI · Dec 16, 2017

GoFaster said:
On a related note, a buddy of mine just signed up for a 3 year lease on a Kia Soul EV, and he's going to bring it over to show me tomorrow.

The Kia Soul EV is a pretty nice little vehicle. It doesn't go very far, but it's very comfortable for passengers, has great cargo space and drives really nicely. We were looking at them before we bought our 500e. I was particularly interested in the EV+ trim with heated and ventilated seats, heat pump, and more. Unfortunately, they were hard to come by and used prices were about double what we were interested in paying for a commuter car.

If they can double the range and get the price down a little bit, I think it'll be a very attractive vehicle.

I'm definitely interested in hearing what you think about it. Please follow up after you check it out.

john.jackson9213 · Dec 16, 2017

GoFaster said:
Pushing new technology into the market before the bugs are sufficiently out of it tends to taint public opinion for MUCH longer than it takes for the technology to actually get sorted out. Lots of people won't buy electric cars because they worry about how long the batteries will last. Guess where that worry comes from ...

Sounds a lot like a major automaker who rushed a diesel engine into production in the 1970's long before all its "issues" had been sorted out.

That RUSH to the latest, greatest fuel economy solution - gave DIESEL a VERY BAD reputation with consumers. And it did not matter that most of the engines problems were resolved by 1983. The damage was done for a generation!

Oilerlord · Dec 17, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
Model S and X can be afforded by more than 1% of the population. Assuming a sale price of $100,000, a family would need to make $200,000, which is more like 7% of U.S. households. Still the top tier, but not as exaggerated as your statistic of 1% would suggest.

Clearly the humanity extinction event that Turbo is referring to ("preventing humanity from destroying itself") isn't limited to the US border, is it? If it was, we'd be discussing "US warming".

Let's assume your 7% stat is correct. 7% of all US households can afford to buy a Tesla. Just because they can, doesn't mean they will. You can be damn sure that 7% of all households in India or China will NOT be buying a $100,000 Tesla.

So, with that in mind, wouldn't you think the "solution" should be just as easily accessible to the person who lives in Delhi, as it is for the person living in Del Mar?

This is part of the hypocrisy of Elon Musk & Tesla. Let's save the planet together, but only if you can afford the MSRP.

VeeDubTDI · Dec 17, 2017

Oilerlord said:
Clearly the humanity extinction event that Turbo is referring to ("preventing humanity from destroying itself") isn't limited to the US border, is it? If it was, we'd be discussing "US warming".

Let's assume your 7% stat is correct. 7% of all US households can afford to buy a Tesla. Just because they can, doesn't mean they will. You can be damn sure that 7% of all households in India or China will NOT be buying a $100,000 Tesla.

So, with that in mind, wouldn't you think the "solution" should be just as easily accessible to the person who lives in Delhi, as it is for the person living in Del Mar?

This is part of the hypocrisy of Elon Musk & Tesla. Let's save the planet together, but only if you can afford the MSRP.

How would you feel about TSLA if they had yet another iron in the fire - attempting to build cheap econobox EVs for the overseas market that would be competitive with their own local manufacturers?

Personally, I'd be quite concerned. Tesla has enough going on here in the US getting their operation up and running. Local overseas manufacturers are already developing their own EVs. That's partly due to Tesla demonstrating that electric vehicles can be good, they can be competitive and they will get more affordable.

https://auto.ndtv.com/news/tata-mot...tch-of-tigor-electric-vehicle-to-eesl-1787821
http://mashable.com/2017/11/06/chinese-electric-car-companies/#os1zmbtl0PqS
http://www.mahindraelectric.com/

Tesla wouldn't be competitive with them, they don't have the manufacturing infrastructure built out to even have a hope of having a large enough supply and the profit margin isn't there. Also, many of these vehicles are cheaply made and arguably poorly built. In order to be competitive, Tesla would have to lower their standards significantly - a move that would undoubtedly have an impact on the brand's current high status here at home.

While I appreciate the discussion from all fronts, the suggestion that Tesla should be all things to all people, around the world, immediately, right out of the gate, is simply ridiculous. Your devil's advocate arguments and apparent outrage over this supposed "hypocrisy" are getting borderline absurd.

Oilerlord · Dec 17, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
How would you feel about TSLA if they had yet another iron in the fire - attempting to build cheap econobox EVs for the overseas market that would be competitive with their own local manufacturers?

I'd cheer. You would too. Just imagine:

Elon Musk Announces affordable "Global EV" Initiative

Reuters Staff

PALO ALTO (Reuters Video): Today, at a surprise new conference, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced an affordable electric microcar aimed squarely at emerging markets.

(Video of Musk, on auditorium stage, in front of 5000 fans)

"Guys, we're all in this together (dramatic pause). Climate change is real, and we all need to do something about it. (Raises voice) At Tesla, today, we are."

(audience gasps)

"Back in 1950, VW announced the "Peoples" car. It captured imaginations, and was a car everyone could afford. Today, we announce the "Peoples" Tesla."

(Sheet flows off shiny new, micro-sized, cool-looking Tesla EV)

(Cut to camera 1 showing thunderous ovation from Tesla fans in the auditorium, many crying, others hugging each other)

"What do you think? (pauses)...the solution to climate change should be as accessible in New Delhi as it is in Newport Beach...right? (another dramatic pause) I think so. I think you do too...right? (Fans screaming YES!!! in background)

"Two hundred miles range, charges in 30 minutes, fifteen thousand dollars."

(Cut to shot of $15,000 price tag)

(Cut to camera 1 showing even LOUDER ovation. Some fans in audience have fainted, medics on scene, general pandemonium)

"Today, EVERYONE can afford a Tesla. (another dramatic pause) Together, and today, we change the world."

VeeDubTDI said:
Your devil's advocate arguments and apparent outrage over this supposed "hypocrisy" are getting borderline absurd.

Call me absurd, but this is what actual revolution looks like. Nice dream, huh? It was fun while it lasted. Not going to happen.

Tesla sells products to wealthy people. It's part of their brand identity and product cache. I don't see this changing anytime soon. If it was, their next EV wouldn't be low volume, $200,000 convertible.

bhtooefr · Dec 17, 2017

They sell the idea of an EV, as something both possible and desirable.

Now that they've created demand, other companies can capitalize on the non-luxury portions of the market, as a ****-load of Chinese automakers are doing.

turbobrick240 · Dec 17, 2017

That was fun. But maybe we should leave the fake news(ugh) stories to The Onion. I actually do think an electric "peoples car" is a fantastic idea, and at the rate battery costs are dropping, may not be that far off.
As a counter argument- The great Steve Jobs revolutionized the mobile device market. Yet, you probably won't see a lot of $700 iPhones in use in most 3rd world countries. Other manufacturers took the iPhone concept and made much cheaper versions that folks with more modest incomes could afford. The same thing will likely happen in the EV market.

nwdiver · Dec 17, 2017

Oilerlord said:
If it was, their next EV wouldn't be low volume, $200,000 convertible.

I wonder if he knows VW owns 100% of Bugatti...

Getting wealthy people to spend absurd amounts of money on high margins cars to help fund lower priced low margin cars isn't a bad thing...

turbobrick240 · Dec 17, 2017

nwdiver said:
I wonder if he knows VW owns 100% of Bugatti...

Or that Adolph's brainchild, the "people's car" was actually introduced in 1938, not 1950.

aja8888 · Dec 17, 2017

turbobrick240 said:
Or that Adolph's brainchild, the "people's car" was actually introduced in 1938, not 1950.

It had more "people uses" than just transportation during the war years.

turbobrick240 · Dec 17, 2017

aja8888 said:
It had more "people uses" than just transportation during the war years.

I know. When the "holocaust centers" ( nice one Spicy) ran out of zyclon b, a type 1 could conveniently be plumbed into the gas chambers.

GoFaster · Dec 17, 2017

Back to more normal topic ...

I just test-drove my buddy's Soul EV. It is a pretty good car. Decent acceleration (with no waiting for gearshifts), switchable regenerative braking ("D" feels like a normal car with automatic transmission, "B" allows one-pedal driving), it automatically applies more regenerative braking with initial travel of the brake pedal, and the dash display gives good information on charge status and energy consumption. In addition it rides decently enough and the steering seems to be pretty good.

We stopped at a local public DCFC charging station. The time it took to drink a coffee was the time it took to go from about 55 km remaining on the range display to 100 km (and this was not a full charge ... it was the time it took to drink a coffee). This car uses a CHAdeMO plug ... the charging station has both. Charging rate is 50 kW.

He's in the position of working near Toronto Pearson airport, which has several DCFC stations, so he charges the car for nothing while eating lunch.

The electricity consumption seems to be around 18 kWh / 100 km which would put official range to be around 160 km and that's with weather how it has been in the week since he picked up the car, hardly ideal conditions. He figures it would probably do 180 - 190 in warmer conditions.

That particular car won't work for me, yet, because there aren't enough DCFC stations outside Toronto that aren't Tesla Superchargers. Can't make it between London and Windsor ... and the non-Tesla DCFC in London is off the beaten path.

But, I am thinking that it won't be too long before there are enough DCFC installed for this to no longer be an issue. My criteria for buying an EV has been, and remains, that DCFC (that aren't Tesla superchargers) are installed at all of the motorway service centers plus one somewhere near St Catharines, because then you can get almost anywhere in southern Ontario and a fair bit north.

VeeDubTDI · Dec 17, 2017

So uh... let's get this thread back on topic.

Inside EVs is reporting some interesting news that parts orders for Model 3 are rapidly increasing. https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-production-might-hit-5000-per-week-soon/

Meanwhile, NIO, a Chinese EV startup, is looking to produce a 7-seat 220-mile range SUV that will undoubtedly be popular in its home market, given China's intense focus on electrification recently. https://electrek.co/2017/12/16/nio-es8-all-electric-suv-battery-swap-renting-structure/

VeeDubTDI · Dec 17, 2017

GoFaster said:
Back to more normal topic ...

I just test-drove my buddy's Soul EV. It is a pretty good car. Decent acceleration (with no waiting for gearshifts), switchable regenerative braking ("D" feels like a normal car with automatic transmission, "B" allows one-pedal driving), it automatically applies more regenerative braking with initial travel of the brake pedal, and the dash display gives good information on charge status and energy consumption. In addition it rides decently enough and the steering seems to be pretty good.

We stopped at a local public DCFC charging station. The time it took to drink a coffee was the time it took to go from about 55 km remaining on the range display to 100 km (and this was not a full charge ... it was the time it took to drink a coffee). This car uses a CHAdeMO plug ... the charging station has both. Charging rate is 50 kW.

He's in the position of working near Toronto Pearson airport, which has several DCFC stations, so he charges the car for nothing while eating lunch.

The electricity consumption seems to be around 18 kWh / 100 km which would put official range to be around 160 km and that's with weather how it has been in the week since he picked up the car, hardly ideal conditions. He figures it would probably do 180 - 190 in warmer conditions.

That particular car won't work for me, yet, because there aren't enough DCFC stations outside Toronto that aren't Tesla Superchargers. Can't make it between London and Windsor ... and the non-Tesla DCFC in London is off the beaten path.

But, I am thinking that it won't be too long before there are enough DCFC installed for this to no longer be an issue. My criteria for buying an EV has been, and remains, that DCFC (that aren't Tesla superchargers) are installed at all of the motorway service centers plus one somewhere near St Catharines, because then you can get almost anywhere in southern Ontario and a fair bit north.

Current CCS infrastructure looks like it would support Bolt ownership pretty well. For something shorter range like a Soul, it's still pretty sparse.

Oilerlord · Dec 17, 2017

turbobrick240 said:
As a counter argument- The great Steve Jobs revolutionized the mobile device market. Yet, you probably won't see a lot of $700 iPhones in use in most 3rd world countries. Other manufacturers took the iPhone concept and made much cheaper versions that folks with more modest incomes could afford. The same thing will likely happen in the EV market.

Counter to the counter argument - Musk took the EV-1 concept from GM, and made much more expensive versions that only folks with high incomes can afford. Now he's making the Roadster V2.0 that even fewer people can afford.

By the way, your take on what really was a revolutionary automobile took a tasteless, and offensive turn. We don't need to go there. Ever.

Oilerlord · Dec 17, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
Current CCS infrastructure looks like it would support Bolt ownership pretty well. For something shorter range like a Soul, it's still pretty sparse.

We just got a CCS solar based charging station at a mall 10 minutes from home:

turbobrick240 · Dec 17, 2017

Oilerlord said:
By the way, your take on what really was a revolutionary automobile took a tasteless, and offensive turn. We don't need to go there. Ever.

I never said it wasn't a revolutionary auto. I'm Jewish, and my parents owned three beetles. I love them too. I was merely responding to a comment I found interesting. Get over it.

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