Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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turbobrick240

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Those diesel gensets seem like a pretty good stopgap charging solution for desolate and remote areas. What percentage of the energy for EV's will come/does come from diesel? Infinitesimal. Barely worth thinking about.
 

rotarykid

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Some very bad news for Nissan.....

now I am really confused....are we actually in any measurable way heading in-fact towards a pheasable electric power auto fleet????

Is Nissan About to Sleep With the Fishes?


By Eric Peters , Automotive Columnist • August 4, 2019

Some very bad news for Nissan.

Profits are down 99 percent. Not a typo. A near-total wipeout which triggered the wiping out of 12,500 jobs, the immediate suspension of manufacturing in Indonesia and Spain and an announcement that Japan’s second-largest car company will reduce its model lineup by at least 10 percent by 2022.

Nissan’s U.S. market share is down to 7.9 percent; it was 8.1 percent a year ago.



It is quite possible there won’t be a Nissan by 2022.

So, what’s gone awry?

One thing—a thing which is going awry generally—is the money being wasted on electric cars for which there is no market. Or rather, which there’s no money to be made from making.

Nissan’s Leaf, the company’s first electric car, cost Nissan almost as much money to develop as it continues to lose “selling” it. And when the federal subsidy for electric car “purchases” goes away, it will cost Nissan and everyone else “selling” electric cars even more as people decline to “buy” them at all.

Which will happen, because the ending of the subsidies amounts to a $7,500 effective increase in the cost to the buyer, the price of “green,” as it were.

Nissan et al will then have to resort to discounts of their own equivalent to the federal subsidy, just to get the electric Turduckens off their lots.

This would be no big deal if it were only a handful of electric Turduckens. Due to “climate change,” Nissan and everyone else has been forced to commit billions to the development of hundreds of thousands of electric cars they won’t be able to sell.

That is unless the ability of people to buy them somehow increases by 30-50 percent or more— this being the rough difference (all else being equal) between an electric car and an otherwise equivalent non-electric car.



Who’s going to ante up?

The going-away subsidy all by itself is equivalent in value to 3,125 gallons of regular unleaded at current prices (about $2.40 per gallon). That fills up a 12 gallon gas tank about 260 times — enough to take you 93,000 and change miles at 30 MPG.

However many people believe the sky is about to fall due to “climate change,” most aren’t going to walk away from what amounts to free fuel for nearly 100,000 miles of driving by not driving an electric car.

The 12,500 jobs that just went up in smoke, along with Nissan’s profits and possibly Nissan itself, are just the beginning.

A real scheisse show is percolating.

But there is a silk lining to this sow’s ear, for the moment.

It is that you stand to score a deal on any Nissan (excepting the Leaf). The news about Nissan’s precarious finances is already spreading like an oil slick on the ocean and dealers will be increasingly desperate to offload what they can while they can.

And here’s the crazy thing:

Much of what Nissan sells is actually good stuff. In part, because it hasn’t got much of the new stuff; things like turbo fours in big trucks and direct injection and ASS in everything.

Nissan is also the only car company whose new cars let you drive without “bucking up for safety.”

Well, without badgering you like an annoying mother-in-law via a buzzer that won’t shut up until you do.

All the more reason to shop now.

While you still can.
 

GoFaster

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That's a rubbish article. The Nissan Leaf is a rounding error in terms of the whole company. It's a North-American-centric article ... conditions in the rest of the world aren't necessarily the same as those in North America; notably they're serious about CO2 emissions rather than flippant and dismissive of it, they pay a lot more for fuel, and they're getting serious about controlling smog in urban areas to the extent of implementing congestion charges (London - EVs get a pass) or banning older higher-emitting vehicles from urban centres (EVs get a pass).

Nissan does indeed have some financial trouble, but it's not fair to put all the blame on the Leaf. They have a fair number of products in their lineup that are uncompetitive, outdated rubbish (and replacements are in the works for several of them). And, a global slowdown in motor vehicle sales is unsurprising given the unsustainable pace of the last few years.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Renault has also not taken a great interest in keeping Nissan a competitive viable brand, and just recently decided to pick up Mitsubishi, in large part for EV technology, almost in spite of Nissan.

Of course, Mitsubishi, like Nissan, could completely disappear from this market and nobody would likely notice. Like Suzuki or Isuzu.

Nissan is also killing off the diesel Titan. I doubt anyone will notice, nor care.
 

gulfcoastguy

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I hate to hear this as they are one of the larger employers in my state. My first car was a Datsun B 210. As far as the Leaf they have refused to build it with active thermal management of the battery and slow to put out a 200 mile range version also. Definitely lower tier for Japanese manufacturers.
 

kjclow

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That's a rubbish article. The Nissan Leaf is a rounding error in terms of the whole company. It's a North-American-centric article ... conditions in the rest of the world aren't necessarily the same as those in North America; notably they're serious about CO2 emissions rather than flippant and dismissive of it, they pay a lot more for fuel, and they're getting serious about controlling smog in urban areas to the extent of implementing congestion charges (London - EVs get a pass) or banning older higher-emitting vehicles from urban centres (EVs get a pass).

Nissan does indeed have some financial trouble, but it's not fair to put all the blame on the Leaf. They have a fair number of products in their lineup that are uncompetitive, outdated rubbish (and replacements are in the works for several of them). And, a global slowdown in motor vehicle sales is unsurprising given the unsustainable pace of the last few years.
I had a Sentra for a rental car a few weeks back. I'm not sure they've upgraded anything in that car since I looked at buying one in 2005. They just seem to be stuck in the past. I agree that the disappearance of Nissan from the North American market would hardly be noticed.
 

Lightflyer1

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Except that I like they still had small trucks for sale. I haven't looked at them in a while so I don't know how small they are any more. I miss small economy trucks like they used to have around.
 

bizzle

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Except that I like they still had small trucks for sale. I haven't looked at them in a while so I don't know how small they are any more. I miss small economy trucks like they used to have around.
I don't think there's anything like that in the US market anymore.
 

Lightflyer1

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I understand. Ford, Chevy, Toyota and Nissan all had them at one time. I had a Toyota and worked the heck out of that thing. But giant is in and tiny is out currently. I was hoping VW would do a mini truck with a diesel here in the US. I had even thought about the alh Jetta truck conversion at one time. Runonbeer was building one of those back some time ago.
 

kjclow

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Except that I like they still had small trucks for sale. I haven't looked at them in a while so I don't know how small they are any more. I miss small economy trucks like they used to have around.
They're all more midsized trucks these days. From what I read, the Frontier is at the bottom of the pack and Tacoma is at the top. Everyone else just kind of shuffles around the middle. Personally, I did not like how the Tacoma drove or the seat comfort. It's like the bolted the driver's seat directly to the floor. The last one I drove also had issues shifting into third. Took a two step shift up or down. Not sure that any of the recent updates have been anything more than lipstick.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Small trucks suffered for several reasons. Safety regulations, cost/price, and emissions regulations.

It is harder to get a tiny full frame conventional cab + bed pickup to pass crash tests reliably. Small unibody cars are MUCH easier. Once you get a giant full frame that is hard to design in the same type of crumple zones, you need size and mass. This is the main reason the Wrangler is SO HUGE now in comparison to what it used to be.

Just like tools, the same basic steps to make a big truck are needed to make a little truck. Case in point: The Ford Ranger came out in 1983. It was essentially the exact same thing as the F150 that was new for 1980. Just proportionally smaller in every dimension, aside from the cab height, as it still needed to be tall enough to fit a human. But if you lifted the two trucks up in the air, they were arranged exactly the same way underneath. The F truck got a standard I6 and optional V8, the Ranger got a standard I4 and an optional V6, again, a proportional difference. So as such, the individual pieces and steps to build the Ranger were the same. Material was (and is) cheap. So the cost difference to step up to an F150 really was not that much more. And given the fact that the few truly fuel efficient engines (all diesels, of course) that we had available to us back then were slow, stinky, etc. meant that fuel economy difference was not as vast either.

Modern emissions regulations keep the good, modern diesels either frightfully expensive or not available at all. Lack of options, or I should say, lack of options to NOT GET options, has also limited the appeal of these small trucks. You can go buy a stripper Silverado with a regular cab, long bed, and more than capable standard V6 engine... for LESS money than a Colorado, which forces you into an extended cab short bed, and a 4cyl engine which nobody has any of on the lot.

The poor Frontier gets bagged on my the automotive press as being "ancient" but I gotta tell ya, it is the ONLY Nissan product I'd consider, and it has not been ruined by the goofball French styling that the rest have (the entire Infiniti lineup is a vomit inducing failtrain). But even it is saddled with a narrow range of configurations and limited pump sucking engines.
 

Lightflyer1

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Really doesn't matter to me anymore as I am only buying good used vehicles now. A few thousand dollars got me a one owner, 2000 Silverado LT Z71 4x4 and was in excellent condition except for worn out sun burned leather seats and steering wheel which I replaced for about $800. There was a dent in the passenger side where a deer was supposed to have hit him, right in front of the rear wheel. I just popped the dent out and you couldn't really tell it was ever dented. Most of the other trucks, including small ones, were in really bad shape in that price range. It only gets occasional use and I am not paying $20k to $80k for a new version. I wanted a good used tiny truck but couldn't find one in any kind of shape, so this one will have to do. Moving my Dad back from Wichita, Kansas to Austin, Texas this weekend and bringing all his stuff and towing his car back with it.
 

tikal

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I understand. Ford, Chevy, Toyota and Nissan all had them at one time. I had a Toyota and worked the heck out of that thing. But giant is in and tiny is out currently. I was hoping VW would do a mini truck with a diesel here in the US. I had even thought about the alh Jetta truck conversion at one time. Runonbeer was building one of those back some time ago.
Yes I saw Robby's Jetta ALH truck conversion. Very neat and in today's larger truck environment it would stand up, or should I say 'stand down' :)
 

Tin Man

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On the state of electric vehicles and their viability: as of mid 2019, they are still toys for rich boys principally. When Tesla first released the S model sedan, I cheered because I realized that only deep-pocketed vanguards could float such a radical concept. But when the model 3 came out (6 ish years later?) and didn't compete with the (at the time, cheapest of their model lineup) 3-series BMW it was aimed at, I groaned. Still too pricey, and no hatchback? Stupid choice, imo. Before you start nitpicking pricing of a 3 series versus a model 3, consider that BMW has kept ahead of them by releasing a cheaper, smaller 2-series.
Chevy Bolt, BMW i3, and other electric cars still look so stupid, like they're styled by drunk college students.
Maybe in 5 or 7 years I will be able to pay cash for an electric car worth owning--not sure, but we'll see.
According to one libertarian author, its even worse:
If “Emissions” Actually Mattered . . .
EVs are popular with the affluent – who want to signal their virtue – but not if it means driving something like an ungainly and far-from-speedy Prius. A Tesla is sexy and speedy. It blows Corvettes away – and goes over well with their friends who drive BMWs and Porsches, also soon to be electrified.
But their emissions aren’t zero.
And unlike hybrids, they make as much sense for most people – who need to think about things like cost and range and recharge times – as driving around the block to cross the street.
It’d be funny if it weren’t so sad.
EV's such as the Tesla model S may use more energy created by burning fossil fuels than currently available hybrids that are slower but much more thrifty. He may not have his figures in line, since EV's also are pretty frugal with MPGe figures that are pretty high, but the jury is still not finished. We are not consistent in our approach IMO.

Interestingly, if a hybrid is still better overall than your average "rich person's" EV, where do diesels fit in? For a while, a good diesel could do better than a hybrid. Food for thought....
 

kjclow

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They were advertising the camry this morning of being able to hit 40 on the highway with the gasser and 53 around town with the hybrid. The big selling point was that it was the sportiest camry ever. Not a very hard thing to accomplish for a toaster.
 

turbobrick240

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Interestingly, if a hybrid is still better overall than your average "rich person's" EV, where do diesels fit in? For a while, a good diesel could do better than a hybrid. Food for thought....

Says the guy with a Bimmer and a Jag in the garage :) . Not everyone who buys an EV does so to virtue signal to the world how green they are. I think it was a genius move for Tesla to start off with premium EV's that have amazing performance. Eliminating the stigma of EV's as tiny little weirdmobiles is a key step in getting the public to embrace the technology.
 

tikal

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Says the guy with a Bimmer and a Jag in the garage :) . Not everyone who buys an EV does so to virtue signal to the world how green they are. I think it was a genius move for Tesla to start off with premium EV's that have amazing performance. Eliminating the stigma of EV's as tiny little weirdmobiles is a key step in getting the public to embrace the technology.
Sure it is a good start.

EVs becoming mainstream in the US will have its own pace, such as "what is the rush?"
 

compu_85

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EV's such as the Tesla model S may use more energy created by burning fossil fuels than currently available hybrids that are slower but much more thrifty....
Yes, a Tesla Model S might use more energy to go down the road than a Prius. But a motorcycle might use even less still! Those are comparable right?

Back in the real world, compare the efficiency of the Model S to a larger engine'd Audi S7.

-J
 

bhtooefr

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OK, so let's use the single worst grid region for GHG emissions in the US, MRO East, which appears to cover most of Wisconsin and parts of Iowa and (upper peninsula) Michigan. I'll use the current Model S, as well (older ones are less efficient than this).

And, keep in mind that a Prius has an EPA rating of 52 MPG combined. I don't quite get that, my winter efficiency and short tripping means I have a lifetime average of 50.6 MPG.

A 2019 Tesla Model S Long Range charged in 53558 produces about as much global warming pollution as a gasoline vehicle getting 42 miles per gallon.
So, you're right, in that case. The same is true in HICC Oahu (which is pretty self-explanatory) and SERC Midwest (covering most of Illinois and Missouri and parts of Iowa), which have similar emissions.

In SPP North (basically Kansas):

A 2019 Tesla Model S Long Range charged in 67201 produces about as much global warming pollution as a gasoline vehicle getting 50 miles per gallon.
That's getting very close to what a Prius gets.

In WECC Rockies (almost all of Colorado, much of Wyoming, parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah, and Montana):

A 2019 Tesla Model S Long Range charged in 80201 produces about as much global warming pollution as a gasoline vehicle getting 52 miles per gallon.
That's EPA for a Prius, right there.

Every other grid region is better than this. (I'm in RFC West, where it's equivalent emissions to 56 MPG.)

The closest grid region to the national average, ERCOT All (almost all of Texas), and it's slightly worse than the national average:

A 2019 Tesla Model S Long Range charged in 78701 produces about as much global warming pollution as a gasoline vehicle getting 67 miles per gallon.
And, none of this is considering things like adding home solar (which I get it, many people can't do, many states have hostile policies towards it, and many homes are badly situated for it) or subscribing to a renewable energy plan when available (which I do, generation to offset my usage is guaranteed to be 100% from wind).

And, as compu_85 pointed out, the Model S is a much bigger, much faster, much more expensive car than the Prius.

Let's go back to MRO East, and use a Model 3. I'll use the Standard Range Plus, just to make my point even more. (It's slightly more efficient than the Standard Range even though it's the same car - I'm guessing slight variations in charging losses are now important enough at these efficiencies to get noticed in the test cycle.)

A 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus charged in 53558 produces about as much global warming pollution as a gasoline vehicle getting 51 miles per gallon.
 

Tin Man

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Says the guy with a Bimmer and a Jag in the garage :) . Not everyone who buys an EV does so to virtue signal to the world how green they are. I think it was a genius move for Tesla to start off with premium EV's that have amazing performance. Eliminating the stigma of EV's as tiny little weirdmobiles is a key step in getting the public to embrace the technology.
...except that to justify EV shortcomings, everyone uses environmental concerns and sometimes even bashes diesels, even if most diesel problems are arguably solved with the Jaguar 2.0 liter ingenioum diesel design. Mob mentality?

I personally love having choices, which don't seem to be developing as it should in the marketplace. Example: gasoline SUV's/light trucks reign supreme, the worst environmental choice...

Best
 

tikal

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What are our priorities?

Please for those making environmental comparisons I would suggest dropping altogether a sedan type vehicle and bring a reasonable size CUV/SUV for the North American market reality. I bet you right now environmentally, and on the AVERAGE, and initial purchase of said vehicle you would end up like this using the Argonne National Labs GREET model for GHG and non-GHG health impact:

1) Best environmentally, an all electrical non-luxury SUV/CUV. Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $55,000 (perhaps more) for something like a Toyota RAV4 EV (if it would exist).

2) Second best environmentally, a light duty diesel non-luxury SUV/CUV with DPF/SCR. Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $33,000 (based on 2019 Chevrolet Equinox Diesel)

3) Third best environmentally, a non-luxury gasoline hybrid SUV/CUV without gasoline particle filter (GPF). Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $30,000 (use the Toyota RAV4 hybrid as an example).

4) Fourth and last environmentally, a non-luxury gasoline SUV/CUV without gasoline particle filter (GPF). Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $28,000 (use the Toyota RAV4 as an example).

Now ask yourself, this question: at today's average cost of $2.60 for a Gallon (or approx. $0.68/liter) of regular unleaded gasoline in the US, what would be the first choice for an average American buyer from the above choices?
 
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kjclow

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Please for those making environmental comparisons I would suggest dropping altogether a sedan type vehicle and bring a reasonable size CUV/SUV for the North American market reality. I bet you right now environmentally, and on the AVERAGE, and initial purchase of said vehicle you would end up like this using the Argonne National Labs GREET model for GHG and non-GHG health impact:

1) Best environmentally, an all electrical non-luxury SUV/CUV. Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $55,000 (perhaps more) for something like a Toyota RAV4 EV (if it would exist).

2) Second best environmentally, a light duty diesel non-luxury SUV/CUV with DPF/SCR. Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $35,000 to $40,000.

3) Third best environmentally, a non-luxury gasoline hybrid SUV/CUV without gasoline particle filter (GPF). Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $35,000.

4) Fourth and last environmentally, a non-luxury gasoline SUV/CUV without gasoline particle filter (GPF). Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $30,000.

Now ask yourself, this question: at today's average cost of $2.60 for a Gallon (or approx. $0.68/liter) of regular unleaded gasoline in the US, what would be the first choice for an average American buyer from the above choices?
Your numbers on option 3 and 4 are a little high. RAV4 start at $25,650 for gassers and $27850 for hybrids. Given a $2200 upcharge for the hybrid, that's the one I would put in my driveway. Unfortunately, we drove the highlander first. With the better driving dynamics and third row, that would be the winner. Of course price then changes to $31,800 gasser versus $37,500 hybrid.
 

Tin Man

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Please for those making environmental comparisons I would suggest dropping altogether a sedan type vehicle and bring a reasonable size CUV/SUV for the North American market reality. I bet you right now environmentally, and on the AVERAGE, and initial purchase of said vehicle you would end up like this using the Argonne National Labs GREET model for GHG and non-GHG health impact:

1) Best environmentally, an all electrical non-luxury SUV/CUV. Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $55,000 (perhaps more) for something like a Toyota RAV4 EV (if it would exist).

2) Second best environmentally, a light duty diesel non-luxury SUV/CUV with DPF/SCR. Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $33,000 (based on 2019 Chevrolet Equinox Diesel)

3) Third best environmentally, a non-luxury gasoline hybrid SUV/CUV without gasoline particle filter (GPF). Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $30,000 (use the Toyota RAV4 hybrid as an example).

4) Fourth and last environmentally, a non-luxury gasoline SUV/CUV without gasoline particle filter (GPF). Expect to pay an AVERAGE in today's dollars of around $28,000 (use the Toyota RAV4 as an example).

Now ask yourself, this question: at today's average cost of $2.60 for a Gallon (or approx. $0.68/liter) of regular unleaded gasoline in the US, what would be the first choice for an average American buyer from the above choices?
Very interesting, thanks.
 
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