Gary Barnhill
Veteran Member
Jackie Mason the old comedian joked about prostitution: What a great business; you got it, you sell it, but you still got it.
(Possible) Scenario: The Buy Back of the Buy Back
(Buy Back hereafter shortened to BB)
Personal Assumption #1: 2016 VW TDi will not be modified. There are too few vehicles to mess with. Not worth the candle. My dealer has 25 of the 2015 VW TDi for every one 2016 TDi waiting on the back lot. True or not, please don’t hijack the thread over this point. Note: page 15 chart only lists 2009 to 2015 TDi vehicles for emissions modification submittal dates and deadlines.
Personal Assumption #2: There will be a modification for all Generation 2 and Gen 3 VW TDi cars i.e. certain 2012-2015 TDi.
Personal Assumption #3: There may be a modification for Generation 1 VW TDi vehicles. Taking no bets but my guess is; there will be a fix unless the fix costs more that value of the vehicle. Example: super high mile 2009.
Personal Assumption #4: VW will resell BB vehicles in the USA after they modify the vehicles.
Personal Assumption #5: VW will sell brand new 2018 and 2019 model year TDi vehicles. Maybe 2017.
In my case; I will accept VW BB circa August 2018 when my car is exactly five years old. MSRP was $31,125. Got $5,000 discount. I paid $28,752 with taxes. Turn in with 43,550 miles for a + $4470 mileage adjustment. BB amount is $28,727. (Modification amount is about $7200 if I choose that route.)
I estimate a five-year old Passat TDi, when modified, is worth 30% of MSRP, maybe 40% depending on the market. So, I assume $10,000 to $12,000 resale value by some VW dealer.
If wrong about Assumption #4 then these precious modified TDi will be worth more. e.g. I sold my 5-year old Jetta TDi wagon for almost MSRP circa 2008 after California had banned diesel sales 2004-2008.
The VW dealer is not the entity doing the BB. VW AG doing the BB and paying the owner.
But, methinks the dealer is going to be standing there when I turn my car in. He’s going to look it over and say to the VW AG representative; I’d like to buy this cherry from you. If the car is crap he won’t make an offer to the VW AG rep who buys the car and will ship it out within 48 hours (call that a rumor).
The VW dealer wants to keep the good cars and is motivated to get paid for the “warranty work” by VW AG to modify the TDi.
Then the dealer will sell the TDi for a profit. This is similar to what happens to cars coming off lease. Some manufacturers let all dealers bid on cars coming off lease.
Now, if I keep an eye on my dealers used car lot; couldn’t I buy back my own Passat the next week, after it is modified, for around $12,000 (plus another $1,000 tax in CA)?
Bottom Line: You had it. You sold it. A week later you got it back, and approximately $16,000 in pocket (in my case).
Now, as I see it; instead of a BB, I could go for a modification and keep my Passat, i.e. the same result, I had it and I still got it, but that route will leave about $8,000 or $9,000 dollars on the table.
Just my two cents. Your mileage may vary.
(Possible) Scenario: The Buy Back of the Buy Back
(Buy Back hereafter shortened to BB)
Personal Assumption #1: 2016 VW TDi will not be modified. There are too few vehicles to mess with. Not worth the candle. My dealer has 25 of the 2015 VW TDi for every one 2016 TDi waiting on the back lot. True or not, please don’t hijack the thread over this point. Note: page 15 chart only lists 2009 to 2015 TDi vehicles for emissions modification submittal dates and deadlines.
Personal Assumption #2: There will be a modification for all Generation 2 and Gen 3 VW TDi cars i.e. certain 2012-2015 TDi.
Personal Assumption #3: There may be a modification for Generation 1 VW TDi vehicles. Taking no bets but my guess is; there will be a fix unless the fix costs more that value of the vehicle. Example: super high mile 2009.
Personal Assumption #4: VW will resell BB vehicles in the USA after they modify the vehicles.
Personal Assumption #5: VW will sell brand new 2018 and 2019 model year TDi vehicles. Maybe 2017.
In my case; I will accept VW BB circa August 2018 when my car is exactly five years old. MSRP was $31,125. Got $5,000 discount. I paid $28,752 with taxes. Turn in with 43,550 miles for a + $4470 mileage adjustment. BB amount is $28,727. (Modification amount is about $7200 if I choose that route.)
I estimate a five-year old Passat TDi, when modified, is worth 30% of MSRP, maybe 40% depending on the market. So, I assume $10,000 to $12,000 resale value by some VW dealer.
If wrong about Assumption #4 then these precious modified TDi will be worth more. e.g. I sold my 5-year old Jetta TDi wagon for almost MSRP circa 2008 after California had banned diesel sales 2004-2008.
The VW dealer is not the entity doing the BB. VW AG doing the BB and paying the owner.
But, methinks the dealer is going to be standing there when I turn my car in. He’s going to look it over and say to the VW AG representative; I’d like to buy this cherry from you. If the car is crap he won’t make an offer to the VW AG rep who buys the car and will ship it out within 48 hours (call that a rumor).
The VW dealer wants to keep the good cars and is motivated to get paid for the “warranty work” by VW AG to modify the TDi.
Then the dealer will sell the TDi for a profit. This is similar to what happens to cars coming off lease. Some manufacturers let all dealers bid on cars coming off lease.
Now, if I keep an eye on my dealers used car lot; couldn’t I buy back my own Passat the next week, after it is modified, for around $12,000 (plus another $1,000 tax in CA)?
Bottom Line: You had it. You sold it. A week later you got it back, and approximately $16,000 in pocket (in my case).
Now, as I see it; instead of a BB, I could go for a modification and keep my Passat, i.e. the same result, I had it and I still got it, but that route will leave about $8,000 or $9,000 dollars on the table.
Just my two cents. Your mileage may vary.
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