Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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nwdiver

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Fossil fuel generation does not work like that you cannot just turn it on when you need it, it has to be on standby all the time burning fossil fuels, ready to spin up when the load goes up until that changes, there is no way to do away with fossil fuel generation.
An idle plant is still using significantly less fuel. And you CAN turn 'off' gas turbines. Most 'peaking' plants are gas turbines capable of ramping up from cold to full output in <5 minutes. This is one reason that thermal plants are no longer cost effective and are slowly being retired.
 

Rob Mayercik

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I got as far as the electric car forcing meth labs to convert to petroleum refineries.
This doesn't necessarily seem all that outlandish to me at first blush - look how many gangs and mob groups got into making liquor during Prohibition because despite the "ban", people still wanted it and were willing to pay for it.

I suspect his point was likely more along the lines of "ban gasoline and you will just make it the bathub gin of the 21st century", but if so he didn't express it quite so clearly.
 

john.jackson9213

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Rotarykid,

The coal fired base load plants you are talking about are a dying bred. Gas fired peaker plants up to 235MW offer way more flexibility and cheaper fuel sources than a 675MW. They can also be cycled off and on very quickly.

There is no "war on coal" - it is simple economics. Coal has been killing people as long a miners have been digging it - including my grandfather, who was a coal miner for 50 years and died 3 weeks after he "retired" of black lung.
 

nwdiver

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This doesn't necessarily seem all that outlandish to me at first blush - look how many gangs and mob groups got into making liquor during Prohibition because despite the "ban", people still wanted it and were willing to pay for it.
I suspect his point was likely more along the lines of "ban gasoline and you will just make it the bathub gin of the 21st century", but if so he didn't express it quite so clearly.
Except this has nothing to do with banning the fuel. This is all about banning the cars that consume it... not the fuel.
 

turbobrick240

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This doesn't necessarily seem all that outlandish to me at first blush - look how many gangs and mob groups got into making liquor during Prohibition because despite the "ban", people still wanted it and were willing to pay for it.
I suspect his point was likely more along the lines of "ban gasoline and you will just make it the bathub gin of the 21st century", but if so he didn't express it quite so clearly.
I suspect Rush just likes to talk about meth labs. They probably mesh well with other narratives of his. Honestly though, wouldn't illicit drug labs switching into more respectable enterprises be somewhat of a positive? If he was a bit more clever he could have painted some much more thunderdome-esque imagery. :)
 
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CraziFuzzy

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Most of these problems are mitigated as the grid becomes smarter as well. EV charging, especially when done en masse, provides a very beneficial balancing point to the electric grid. Demand response based charging systems can be made to integrate with the grid to modulate with regional loads, and take very little actual hardware. This flattening of the grid profiles actually makes electricity cheaper for all users. Include in the demand response of climate systems where applicable as well means even greater control. Both of these techs are here and actually quite mature - just not implemented in large numbers at this point. Most of Southern California, for instance, already has 2-way smart meters, with the capability to communicate wirelessly with in-home devices, including thermostats and EVSE's, so most of the actual physical work is done.
 

CraziFuzzy

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Also realize that the way a ban like this works, is it isn't a ban on owning and operating a gasoline powered vehicle - it'd likely be a ban on purchasing or importing a new gasoline vehicle. That means a very gradual, but focused push away from the fossil fueled vehicles. If the ban went into effect on Jan 1st, 2024, most vehicles on the road in CA would still be gasoline powered in 2034. (currently, the average age of vehicles on the road is 10-12 years).
 

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Wouldn't the cost of solar replace the 2.3 cents per mile in calculated electricity costs? If I install solar and charge my car from it exclusively, my energy cost per mile is the amortization of the solar system across the miles driven.
It doesn't work that way.

The value of a kWh is the same if you choose to buy it from your power company, generate it from your solar & sell it back to your power company, or store it in your battery.
 

CraziFuzzy

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It doesn't work that way.
The value of a kWh is the same if you choose to buy it from your power company, generate it from your solar & sell it back to your power company, or store it in your battery.
not entirely true if time of use rates are involved - it is possible that nighttime rates from the utility are cheaper than the daytime sellback (or offset) rate from the solar.
 

SilverGhost

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Most of these problems are mitigated as the grid becomes smarter as well. EV charging, especially when done en masse, provides a very beneficial balancing point to the electric grid. Demand response based charging systems can be made to integrate with the grid to modulate with regional loads, and take very little actual hardware. This flattening of the grid profiles actually makes electricity cheaper for all users. Include in the demand response of climate systems where applicable as well means even greater control. Both of these techs are here and actually quite mature - just not implemented in large numbers at this point. Most of Southern California, for instance, already has 2-way smart meters, with the capability to communicate wirelessly with in-home devices, including thermostats and EVSE's, so most of the actual physical work is done.

When I was growing up in New Zealand my dad had our electricity on demand system with the power company for water heater and furnace. We got a lower rate for that power as compensation for them being able to remotely turn the appliances off. Main reason it worked so well was the wet back fireplace - the water plumbing cycled through a loop embedded in the fireplace. Most of the winter we had the fire going for heating and byproduct was hot water.

I heard about CA power companies being able to shut off compatible appliances to balance peak load. Give me a decent discount and I'm on board for that.

Jason
 

bhtooefr

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In rural central Ohio, the electric co-ops give large rebates on electric water heaters if you allow them to install a device to shut it off during peak demand, too.
 

Oilerlord

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not entirely true if time of use rates are involved - it is possible that nighttime rates from the utility are cheaper than the daytime sellback (or offset) rate from the solar.
Sure...perhaps not the "same" value if on a TOU plan but the point is that a kWh still has value - regardless of choosing to buy, sell, or store it.
 

nwdiver

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Oilerlord

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300w is pretty standard these days. 3 miles/kWh is about average for an EV. 10 panels would be 3kW. The US average solar insolation is ~4.5 full hours of sun per day. 3kW x 4.5hours/day = 13.5kWh/day. That's 4927.5kWh/yr or enough energy to drive ~14800 miles per year ON AVERAGE.
Yeah, I'll also offer a back of the envelope reality check too - from actual results.

I have 41, 225 watt SunPower modules - 9.23 KW. By your math, I "should" be generating 9.23 kW x 4.5 hours per day = 41.53 kWh/day. I'm not. The actual output year to date on my system is 8120 kWh - or 27.9 kWh per day (based on 291 days year to date). EDIT: My projected FY2017 output will be ~8620 kWh - or about 23.61 kWh per day.



I think what you're missing is that not everyone with solar lives in southern California, or has the luxury of a rooftop that points optimum south.
 
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nwdiver

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I think what you're missing is that not everyone with solar lives in southern California, or has the luxury of a rooftop that points optimum south.
My estimates were based on the US average. I agree they don't hold North of ~45 degrees but most people don't live that far North. I never claimed it applied to everyone. I said ON AVERAGE. Which by definition would mean ~50% would be less ~50% would be more ;)

Maybe this will help clear up some of the confusion....



I get ~18MWh per year from 10kW but I didn't use that number either because it's NOT the AVERAGE. To say that Edmonton Canada isn't indicative of average US solar resources would be an understatement....

 
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turbocharged798

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CraziFuzzy

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When I was growing up in New Zealand my dad had our electricity on demand system with the power company for water heater and furnace. We got a lower rate for that power as compensation for them being able to remotely turn the appliances off. Main reason it worked so well was the wet back fireplace - the water plumbing cycled through a loop embedded in the fireplace. Most of the winter we had the fire going for heating and byproduct was hot water.
I heard about CA power companies being able to shut off compatible appliances to balance peak load. Give me a decent discount and I'm on board for that.
Jason
That has been present for decades - what is new in the newer systems is integration with the thermostat. Instead of simply turning off the unit for an hour or more, it enforces a setback on the thermostat - this is a MUCH more controlled system, and will result in a much higher volunteer rate (the current systems are showing lower and lower enrollment, because it doesn't take long during one of the events for temperatures in the home to get up to 90°F (these events are often triggered near peak solar intensity and over 110°F ouside). Setting the thermostat back to 80°F is a far more acceptable scenario than simply shutting it off.
 

Oilerlord

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My estimates were based on the US average. I agree they don't hold North of ~45 degrees but most people don't live that far North. I never claimed it applied to everyone. I said ON AVERAGE.
I caught that the first time. On average. Got it. Thanks.

Check that map again.

A solar generation site located in Edmonton (just north of Calgary by the way) produces more energy "on average" than ones located in Boston, New York, Chicago, and Detroit. Degrees latitude is one metric for solar output, but not the only one.

New York is the highest populated city in the US. It would appear that based on my results, "on average" solar production may not apply there either. At least we're in good company. We love New York.

I'd love to debate this further, but it's time to hitch up the team. Need to go hunt polar bears and finish building my igloo.
 

nwdiver

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I caught that the first time. On average. Got it. Thanks.
Check that map again.
A solar generation site located in Edmonton (just north of Calgary by the way) produces more energy "on average" than ones located in Boston, New York, Chicago, and Detroit. Degrees latitude is one metric for solar output, but not the only one.
New York is the highest populated city in the US. It would appear that based on my results, "on average" solar production may not apply there either. At least we're in good company. We love New York.
Yes. Boston, New York, Chicago and Detroit are below average. Places like Denver and Atlanta would be Average while San Diego and Albuquerque would be above average. Glad we devoted 2 pages to agree on reality.

Like I said. The US ANNUAL AVERAGE is ~4.5 full hour per day. Not N America. Not Canada. Not Everyone. The US ANNUAL AVERAGE. Not sure what point you're trying to make. If it's that solar won't work as well for some people as it does for other I agree...... I've never claimed anything to the contrary....
 
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bhtooefr

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Negative pricing is because solar and wind caused the grid to get so f-ed up the utility companies do not know what to do. That is NOT a good thing.
Hydro, not solar and wind: http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2017/08/28/is-solar-really-the-reason-for-negative-electricity-prices/

Solar does create a massive supply increase during the day, but typically, in the American grid, negative pricing happens at night, when there's zero solar - solar's supply increase nearly coincides with a demand increase.

And, ultimately, negative prices can act as an economic incentive for companies to help stabilize the grid - manufacturers can schedule electrical demand-causing activity to occur during times of negative pricing, things like ice storage HVAC and hot water storage systems can be activated (reducing demand later in the day), and energy companies can react to negative pricing by taking energy off the grid into things like battery and pumped hydro storage (and then sell it back to the grid later during times of high demand and low supply, avoiding usage of inefficient peaker plants - add enough storage, and you won't need peakers or base load, storage can take both of those roles).
 
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oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
My question is, as it always has been, it would seem the OBVIOUS most useful purpose for solar would be on site commercial (or residential) linking to A/C systems. More sun = more available power, and more available power is needed because the heat load is higher, and when the heat load is higher, you need more cooling capacity!

And these could be setup on rooftops and be not attached to the grid if you like. They just work to counteract the heat load to maintain comfortable temps in the building.

Simple, but there must be some reason why this method is not employed much. There has to be a downside. What is it?
 

bhtooefr

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One problem is that there is a few hours delay between the solar peak and the demand peak - the sun keeps adding energy to the system even after the solar peak, and there's other non-AC demand increasing in the afternoon (cooking and entertainment being some examples).

That said, ice storage can handle that peak shifting easily enough. (Basically, make ice with any surplus energy, then use that ice later when energy demand exceeds supply.) Ice storage systems are a relatively new technology, but are just now being scaled down to residential scale.

https://www.ice-energy.com/ is a company that has pushed it down to that residential scale, I wonder what the pricing is on those systems. (They claim that in some areas, the utilities will actually just straight-up provide a unit to a building owner for free, because the utilities themselves get benefit from them being on the grid, as they can be controlled by the utility to manage demand.)
 

nwdiver

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My question is, as it always has been, it would seem the OBVIOUS most useful purpose for solar would be on site commercial (or residential) linking to A/C systems. More sun = more available power, and more available power is needed because the heat load is higher, and when the heat load is higher, you need more cooling capacity!
And these could be setup on rooftops and be not attached to the grid if you like. They just work to counteract the heat load to maintain comfortable temps in the building.
Simple, but there must be some reason why this method is not employed much. There has to be a downside. What is it?
The reason is that there would be no benefit vs a grid-tied system. A grid-tied system can power other electrical loads on cool days when A/C isn't needed or your neighbors house if you're on vacation.
 

Oilerlord

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Not sure what point you're trying to make.
300w is pretty standard these days. 3 miles/kWh is about average for an EV. 10 panels would be 3kW. The US average solar insolation is ~4.5 full hours of sun per day. 3kW x 4.5hours/day = 13.5kWh/day. That's 4927.5kWh/yr or enough energy to drive ~14800 miles per year ON AVERAGE.
Since you asked, the point is that you make assumptions like the one above that are overly optimistic and/or biased towards furthering an agenda, and without context. You then end up having to backpedal on those assumptions when they don't hold up under scrutiny based on actual data like mine. When caught, you hide behind a technicality like "on average" when the actual, real world results (in large US cities like New York, Boston, Chicago, etc) may be 50% less than the "ON AVERAGE" figure you're leading people to believe.

This isn't a question about about solar working better for some than it does for others, it's about being straight with people, and setting realistic expectations.
 

nwdiver

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This isn't a question about about solar working better for some than it does for others, it's about being straight with people, and setting realistic expectations.
??? LOL... Please specify exactly which part of my statement was misleading, unrealistic or incorrect. I repeatedly stressed it was the 'US Average' you appear to be alone in taking exception to this. Would you have preferred 3-7 full hours of sun? Would that have met your high standards?

No backpedaling or assumptions... the US receives ~4.5 full hours of sun per day on average... that's just a fact.

Here's some real world data from a 11kW system I recently installed... I look forward to your retort that this isn't 'Average'.... LOL



OR better yet... How would YOU explain the viability of solar to the AVERAGE person living in the US.
 
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turbobrick240

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4.5 hours of full sunlight per day avg. sounds pretty reasonable to me for the US. That's what I get at 44° N, in Maine.
 
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VeeDubTDI

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Since you asked, the point is that you make assumptions like the one above that are overly optimistic and/or biased towards furthering an agenda, and without context. You then end up having to backpedal on those assumptions when they don't hold up under scrutiny based on actual data like mine. When caught, you hide behind a technicality like "on average" when the actual, real world results (in large US cities like New York, Boston, Chicago, etc) may be 50% less than the "ON AVERAGE" figure you're leading people to believe.

This isn't a question about about solar working better for some than it does for others, it's about being straight with people, and setting realistic expectations.
??? LOL... Please specify exactly which part of my statement was misleading, unrealistic or incorrect. I repeatedly stressed it was the 'US Average' you appear to be alone in taking exception to this. Would you have preferred 3-7 full hours of sun? Would that have met your high standards?

No backpedaling or assumptions... the US receives ~4.5 full hours of sun per day on average... that's just a fact.

Here's some real world data from a 11kW system I recently installed... I look forward to your retort that this isn't 'Average'.... LOL



OR better yet... How would YOU explain the viability of solar to the AVERAGE person living in the US.

You’re both pretty. Please stop.
 

Oilerlord

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4.5 hours of full sunlight per day avg. sounds pretty reasonable to me for the US. That's what I get at 44° N, in Maine.
Instead of arguing with the guy, I figured it would easier just to plug in the numbers into the PVwatts calculator for a 3kW system. Interesting results. Here are the results for Los Angeles:



Here it is for you in Bangor, Maine:




Both calculations assume a favorable 6/12 roof pitch angle, and the generally accepted best case scenario having all modules pointing 180 south. Even with that, the yield in LA is 4,820 kWh per year, and 4,116 kWh per year respectively. Neither reaches the 4,927 kWh's as was suggested as an "average".

From the solar installations I've been involved with, a lot of them can't point 180 south, or they have real-world issues with shading at certain times of the day. I'm not at all questioning the viability of solar at all (I have 9.2 kW of PV), it's about being straight with people instead of being overly optimistic.
 
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