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casioqv August 15th, 2019 12:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by wxman (Post 5529400)
the cost of long-range BEV on 100% solar power is expected to decrease to $0.38/mile over its entire lifespan (15 years) by 2035

Is this supposed to include purchase price and maintenance or just electricity/fuel? With our unusually high electricity prices in CA, I'm paying about $0.06/mile for electricity in the e-Golf. That's at $0.22 /kWh, and owning your own solar panels is supposed to be cheaper than that.


I got the car really cheap as it was a year old slow charge model, but my total price estimate is about $0.145/mile if I go 200k miles in 15 years, including maintenance (tires, etc.) and purchase price, but not including insurance and registration.

oilhammer August 15th, 2019 12:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by casioqv (Post 5529405)
Is this supposed to include purchase price and maintenance or just electricity/fuel? With our unusually high electricity prices in CA, I'm paying about $0.06/mile for electricity in the e-Golf. That's at $0.22 /kWh, and owning your own solar panels is supposed to be cheaper than that.


I got the car really cheap as it was a year old slow charge model, but my total price estimate is about $0.145/mile if I go 200k miles in 15 years, including maintenance (tires, etc.) and purchase price, but not including insurance and registration.


You won't be able to go 200k miles/15 years in its current state. At least, I very much doubt it. Although this "aging" will likely just manifest itself with a shorter and shorter range, but its cost-per-mile will likely remain the same, unless the battery's aging also includes a loss of efficiency. Meaning, now you have X amount of electrons going in and giving you X distance. But if the same X needs to go in, but after 50k miles you are getting only X - Y the distance, then the cost-per-mile WILL go up some.

It would be like buying a car that gets 30 MPG when new, but only getting 20 MPG later on, and there is nothing you can do about it.

flee August 15th, 2019 12:36

Missing from the comparisons of ownership costs of BEV vs ICE cars is the
most expensive condition that BEV's are (relatively) immune from, that is
the inevitable rise in the price of fossil fuel.
Electricity prices, while likely to increase, are set by state and local utilities
and not allowed to rise dramatically. By contrast, a single disruption in fossil
fuel supply can result in overnight price increases of double digit percentages.

IndigoBlueWagon August 15th, 2019 12:41

I'm betting that in most metropolitan markets electricity costs have risen faster than gasoline costs in the past 5 years. Utilities are charging more for delivery and maintaining their grids, increasing costs.

And these days an increase in fossil fuel isn't that "inevitable." The US now has more fuel reserves than in recent history. When prices increase slightly, producers just bring more wells on line. I think fuel costs are going to be relatively stable for the foreseeable future.

turbobrick240 August 15th, 2019 12:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon (Post 5529420)
And these days an increase in fossil fuel isn't that "inevitable." The US now has more fuel reserves than in recent history. When prices increase slightly, producers just bring more wells on line. I think fuel costs are going to be relatively stable for the foreseeable future.

Have you seen who is at the helm of the crazy train that is our current government? Nothing would surprise me at this point.

wxman August 15th, 2019 13:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by casioqv (Post 5529405)
Is this supposed to include purchase price and maintenance or just electricity/fuel?...

It includes all costs over the lifespan of the vehicle, including the vehicle purchase price (without tax credits).

The cost of electricity is assumed to be $4.56/gge in that study.

nwdiver August 15th, 2019 13:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon (Post 5529420)
I'm betting that in most metropolitan markets electricity costs have risen faster than gasoline costs in the past 5 years. Utilities are charging more for delivery and maintaining their grids, increasing costs.

At least one VW executive sees EV parity with ICE in '3 to 5 years'.

And you can't go by the average price of electricity as an indicator to how much it will cost to charge an EV. Soon you won't even be able to go by the lowest TOU rate. More and more aggregators are going to offer the ability to use EVs as a way to balance the grid. This will make charging them extremely cheap.

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilhammer (Post 5529410)
You won't be able to go 200k miles/15 years in its current state.

My 2012 Model S has now clocked >150,000 miles and I still get >220 miles on a charge. I just finished a road trip from NM to WA with no problems. The new cars are even better. There's also a few Teslas driven as a service that have >400,000 miles. The degradation you describe is also not how degradation works. If a 70kWh battery now has 60kWh of capacity after 10 years it does not require 70kWh to get 60kWh out. The batteries are simply able to hold less charge... it's not much different than having a smaller gas tank. The round-trip efficiency of the battery may decline a little over time but it's not going to be >10%. Have you never had an old cordless tool battery that didn't really hold a charge anymore? They charge significantly faster since they simply can't hold the energy any more....

casioqv August 15th, 2019 14:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilhammer (Post 5529410)
You won't be able to go 200k miles/15 years in its current state.

I disagree, based on my understanding of how lithium ion batteries age, and are managed in EVs.

Lithium ion life is drastically longer if the batteries cycle over a narrower range, e.g. 20% to 80%, and avoid full charges and discharges. The factory "full capacity" on an EV only allows this, e.g. charges within about the 20-80% range. As real capacity reduces over time, these boundaries relax keeping the usable capacity roughly the same, but eventually accelerating battery aging. You won't see a usable reduction in capacity for a long time- probably well over 200k miles based on what I've heard from other people. This is why EV batteries last so much longer than phone or computer batteries. With the e-Golf you can also manually narrow this range further with the CarNet software, to further increase battery life.

As lithium batteries age, they do not get noticeably less efficient... they merely can't be charged with as much energy. The total range of the vehicle will eventually fall, but the cost to charge will fall proportionally.

A lithium battery using 100% capacity lasts only about 400 charge cycles, but using only 60% capacity raises this 10 fold to 4,000. 4,000 cycles at 100 miles per cycle is 400,000 miles. My e-golf is rated to 83 miles but actually gets 100-120 in my experience, unless climbing steep grades or running the AC hard.

So if EV batteries were used like cell phone batteries at full charge-discharge, they'd only last 40k miles, but I would expect around 400k life from an EV with proper software and/or an owner that carefully manages charge levels. That seems to be consistent with what high mileage modern EVs are reporting as shown in the post above (400k battery life). This would likely double again to ~800k mile life if you do only short trips in a small town and drop the full charge level via software to 75% of full capacity or so.

vwxyzero August 15th, 2019 16:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by atc98002 (Post 5529258)
Yeah, we're dreaming. :)

I totally agree. Although I have a great deal of respect for the TDI maestros here, deisel is being shuned in many European cities, and if it's downhill in Europe it ain't gonna be uphill in the States. Yes I still own my VW diesels, but two of them are up on blocks, and my daily driver is electric (guess I need to fix my profile.)

To many recent articles make clear points that diesel is dying.

Two of many:

Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-city-centers

LA Times

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...s-city-centers

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

vwxyzero August 15th, 2019 18:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by TDIMeister (Post 5529212)

It's also worth reading the comments on this article, as well as following the Twitter link for all the rebuttals.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

IndigoBlueWagon August 15th, 2019 18:25

What did you expect from people reading something called Teslarati?

EVs have their supporters. So do diesels. Both groups are going to express opinions in ways that support what they like. Very little of it is factual, probably none of it is objective.

Whether or not we see diesels again probably has more to do with money and politics than anything else. And whether or not EVs become a significant part of our transportation culture will be driven by the same forces. Americans in particular have demonstrated their indifference to climate change. That threat is not going to get many Americans to change their habits.

It doesn't matter what's cleaner, more reliable, or even less expensive to operate: a lot of people like internal combustion engines, and that affection may take generations to go away. I expect Europeans will continue to buy diesels, and I also believe they could find a market in the US if a manufacturer wants to offer vehicles here. VW was able to sell off its "dirty diesel" cars pretty quickly. There may well be enough demand for more to persuade VW to bring them back, if the courts and EPA will allow. Like I said, money and politics.

nwdiver August 15th, 2019 20:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon (Post 5529501)
Americans in particular have demonstrated their indifference to climate change. That threat is not going to get many Americans to change their habits.

As the song goes, 'The times they are a changin'...'

Frank Luntz, the GOP’s message master, calls for climate action

“I’m here before you to say that I was wrong in 2001,” Luntz told the Senate committee. “Just stop using something that I wrote 18 years ago, because it’s not accurate today.”

jackbombay August 15th, 2019 21:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon (Post 5529291)
One thing that might help electric cars bomb is if owners have to pay the full cost for the car without subsidies...

I'm sure you would fall off your chair if you had to pay the full cost of your fuel without subsidies, the list of subsidies for our fuel should include the cost of the wars we have fought to ensure reliable access to oil from the middle east, for example.

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndigoBlueWagon (Post 5529356)
I honestly can't believe that as a culture how totally insensitive we are to the fossil fuels we consume. At Starbucks this AM the parking lot was gridlocked momentarily because of the huge trucks and SUVs trying to get in and out of spaces that are too small for them. All the vehicles I saw had one occupant and no payload. Crazy.

Do you remember the intro the the Six Million Dollar Man TV show? Where Steve Austin is a test pilot and crashes his plane at hundreds of miles per hour? That's exactly what humans are in the process of doing with the entire planet.

https://youtu.be/0CPJ-AbCsT8?t=116

IndigoBlueWagon August 16th, 2019 02:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by nwdiver (Post 5529520)
As the song goes, 'The times they are a changin'...'
Frank Luntz, the GOP’s message master, calls for climate action
“I’m here before you to say that I was wrong in 2001,” Luntz told the Senate committee. “Just stop using something that I wrote 18 years ago, because it’s not accurate today.”

I'd love to think they're changing, but I just don't see it. Some people are now saying the right things, but they're largely falling on deaf ears.

oilhammer August 16th, 2019 03:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by nwdiver (Post 5529432)
At least one VW executive sees EV parity with ICE in '3 to 5 years'.

And you can't go by the average price of electricity as an indicator to how much it will cost to charge an EV. Soon you won't even be able to go by the lowest TOU rate. More and more aggregators are going to offer the ability to use EVs as a way to balance the grid. This will make charging them extremely cheap.



My 2012 Model S has now clocked >150,000 miles and I still get >220 miles on a charge. I just finished a road trip from NM to WA with no problems. The new cars are even better. There's also a few Teslas driven as a service that have >400,000 miles. The degradation you describe is also not how degradation works. If a 70kWh battery now has 60kWh of capacity after 10 years it does not require 70kWh to get 60kWh out. The batteries are simply able to hold less charge... it's not much different than having a smaller gas tank. The round-trip efficiency of the battery may decline a little over time but it's not going to be >10%. Have you never had an old cordless tool battery that didn't really hold a charge anymore? They charge significantly faster since they simply can't hold the energy any more....

Settle down, moneybags, I was talking about an eGolf, not your precious Tesla. :rolleyes: We all know thanks to you Teslas are perfect and we should all be so lucky as to afford one like you. Thread crapping again. Some of us LIKE our diesels, and this thread was a glimpse of hope for us. Thanks again for smearing your zealot feelings on it. I will think of you today as I put three more old cars back into service.


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