EIA Fuels Report & Outlook, Winter 2005 - 2006

[PDJetta]

It does not look good. Here is part of it:

"Overall, projected gasoline, diesel fuel, and heating oil prices in this Outlook are somewhat higher than those in the previous edition, notwithstanding the fact that projected crude oil prices are generally slightly lower. The higher estimated refiner margins on petroleum products primarily reflect the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on refinery operations in the Gulf region. The resulting shortfall, both past and anticipated, in the supply of refined products has dramatically increased the need for product imports to balance U.S. supply and demand. For imports to increase, wholesale prices in the U.S. must rise relative to offshore market prices by an amount sufficient to justify product shipments form foreign refining centers to U.S. markets. Finally, because the balance between supply and demand for petroleum products is so tight, small changes in demand, imports, or the supply of products from domestic refineries could result in prices that differ significantly from those in our baseline forecast."

See:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

--Nate

 

[PDiesoiler]

I would expect to see significantly higher diesel prices than RUL until spring as it competes with home heating oil demand. Argh!!!

 

[diesel_smoke]

Even more reason to use Synthetic and Extended OCI.

 

[vikingrob]

The estimate has average retail diesel prices as follows for entire quarters:

2005
Q4 2.85
2006
Q1 2.57
Q2 2.53
Q3 2.54
Q4 2.69

The estimate assumes crude-oil prices in the mid-$60's for West Texas Intermediate.

I did speak to someone at the station I have been using of late, and the advice I got was to expect diesel prices to be in the $3 range most of the winter. (I do remember seeing diesel last November or December at $1.759 a gallon.)

 

[PDJetta]

Yea. What the heck, its at $3.00 - 3.40 in my area now, and AAA said it was at an average of $3.19 today. What's this "average of $2.85 in the fourth quarter". It will only go up as it gets colder outside. Always has, and with refineries running at 70% capacity lately, look out. I predict it will be in the $3.60/gal. range this winter.